theatlantic | Realistically, though, Ukraine cannot successfully resist Russia on
its own. It needs help, and the West should provide it. “I really think
you are more afraid of Russia than we are,” said the same senior
official who told me about the enlistments. NATO’s power vastly exceeds
Russia’s, and Barack Obama is right to call Russia merely a “regional power.” Yet when it comes time to make policy, his administration seems to lose sight of the president’s insight.
The Western world’s immediate goal should be to deter further armed
aggression by Russia against Ukraine. Ukrainian forces need arms and
training, and Ukrainian police may need support even more than the army;
it shouldn’t be so easy for bogus Russian “tourists”
to cross the border. Western governments must expand their presence in
the parts of Ukraine under greatest threat with both consular services
and military observers. The more American, British, French, and German
bodies stand in the line of fire, the less likely Russia is to shoot.
The next step is to reassure NATO countries in Russia’s neighborhood
that the United States can and will defend them. To mollify Moscow, the
alliance has not built much of a physical presence in Poland and the
Baltic republics. The invasion of Crimea vitiates those promises. It’s
time for NATO troops to deploy in the member countries most likely to
experience Russian aggression; an occasional F-16 fly-by is laughably
insufficient.
It’s also possible—in fact, probable—that Russia will move more
cautiously going forward, reverting to its more familiar playbook of
bribery, propaganda, energy blackmail, and trade harassment. (Russia has banned
Ukrainian confectionary on purported health grounds. I ate some, and
they’re fine—excellent in fact—but the loss of Russian sales has hurt
one of Ukraine’s few competitive export industries.)
Ukraine will need a lot of economic assistance, and it will have to
accept considerable oversight to ensure that the aid is used properly.
Tightening anti-corruption practices and laws in Western Europe would
help, too. It’s not just Ukrainian politicians who have been plied with
Russian money—these funds have flowed through Germany, Italy, and, above
all, Britain. Amid Russia’s fierce media war against Ukraine, private
Western foundations should support Ukraine’s fledgling independent
media.
The redirection of George Soros’s philanthropy away from building
open societies in Eastern Europe to drug legalization in the United
States has done damage to democracy on both sides of the Atlantic.
As a more effective and accountable government takes shape in
Ukraine, it will become time to renew its application for NATO
membership. This time, the answer should be ‘yes.’
In the long term, the best hope for Europe—and, indeed for Russia
itself—is to reduce European dependence on Russian oil and gas. Liquid
natural gas from North America can replace pipeline gas from Russia.
Carbon taxes—as opposed to goofy carbon-trading schemes—can reduce
energy use and enhance the competitiveness of alternative sources of
supply. The army Putin uses to bully Europe is an army paid for by
European gas consumers. They have it in their power to deprive Putin of
his force by denying him their trade.
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