get ready for another round of pain at the pump: $4 (or higher) gasoline

USAToday | After rising 19 cents a gallon in the past four weeks, regular gasoline now averages $3.48 a gallon, vs. $3.12 a year ago and $2.67 in February 2010.

Prices could spike an additional 60 cents or more by May. "I think it's going to be a chaotic spring, with huge price increases in some places," says Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. Kloza expects average prices to peak at $4.05, although he and other industry trackers say prices could be sharply higher in some markets.

Rising prices are an annual spring ritual, largely because of seasonal demand. Refiners also switch from winter formulations to more expensive seasonal formulations to meet stringent environmental standards, which can tack on 15 cents a gallon, says Brian Milne of energy tracker Televent DTN.

This year's earlier-than-usual run-up is more about anticipation than current supply and demand. Last week, the Energy Department reported anemic U.S. consumption -- the lowest levels since September 2001. Domestic crude oil prices, now about $98 a barrel, are near six-week lows.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East are bolstering crude prices, while speculators are boosting futures contracts, betting on global supply disruptions and tighter refining capacity. Kloza notes that several U.S. and overseas refiners have experienced temporary or permanent closures.

So far, $4 a gallon has proven to be the upper limit consumers will pay. Last April, national prices peaked at about $3.98 a gallon. In 2008, a sharp run-up ended when prices hit an all-time average of $4.11 a gallon that summer.

"Higher demand, Iran, lost refining capacity are all potential problems," Milne says. "We'll get over $4 a gallon, but it's going to be tough to sustain that level. People will drive less."

Energy analyst Patrick DeHaan of price tracker Gasbuddy.com expects prices to rise to about $3.55 a gallon by the end of February and peak around $4 by Memorial Day weekend.

"You could see prices in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Washington and other major metropolitan areas at $4.60 or higher," DeHaan says.

Lisa Margonelli, author of Oil on the Brain: Petroleum's Long, Strange Trip to Your Tank, says consumers will be vulnerable to rising prices until the U.S. develops alternative fuels such as natural gas.

gas in 6 states tops $4.00/gallon

Video - The Future of Oil: Peak Prices, Peak Production, Piqued Consumers - Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming - 2008-06-11

AP | Add New York to the growing list of states where gas prices are topping $4 per gallon.

On Sunday, the Empire State became the sixth state to top $4 for the average price of a gallon of gas, joining Alaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii and Illinois, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge. The average price of gas also rose to more than $4 per gallon in Washington, D.C., on Saturday.

The next states to join the list could be Michigan, which has gas for $3.95 per gallon on average, and Indiana, where the average price is $3.94. Nevada, Washington and Wisconsin are close behind.

Hawaii has the highest price in the U.S. at $4.48 per gallon. Wyoming has the lowest, at $3.54.

The national average for gas has increased for 26 straight days, and is now at $3.83 per gallon. That's up 29 cents from a month ago. Retail surveys suggest motorists are reacting to higher prices now by buying less fuel. Still, the government expects pump prices to keep climbing this summer as vacationers take to the highways.

For American drivers, the $4 mark harkens back to the summer of 2008, when oil rose to $147 per barrel and gas prices topped out at $4.11 per gallon before the economy went into a tailspin.

The rapid increase at the pump follows a parallel rise in oil. Since Labor Day, oil has risen 48 percent and U.S. gas prices have gone up 42 percent. The increases gained momentum in mid-February when a popular rebellion in Libya turned violent and shut down the country's exports. Crude has jumped 30 percent since then, with gas prices gaining 22 percent.

pricier gas and food pinch consumers

Video - The demolition work's almost 75% done now. The price of a gallon of gas at the adjacent Mobil station has gone up 10 cents a gallon since Friday. Horse and buggy, anyone?

DailyFinance | Americans are paying more for food and gas, a trend that threatens to slow the economy at a crucial time.

So far, the spike in such necessities hasn't stopped businesses from stepping up hiring or slowed factory production, which rose in March for the ninth straight month. Still, higher gas prices have led some economists to lower their forecasts for growth for the January-March quarter.

Consumer prices rose 0.5 percent last month, the Labor Department said Friday. Nearly all of the gains came from pricier gas and food.

When taking out those two volatile categories, core inflation was relatively flat. But at the same time, employees are only seeing small, if any, pay increases.

"People have less money to spend on goods other than food and energy and that is going to cause the expansion to slow," said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The spike in prices is hitting most Americans just as the economy is gaining momentum. Businesses added more than 200,000 jobs in March and February, the best two-month hiring stretch in four years. And the unemployment rate has fallen to a two-year low of 8.8 percent.

Consumers also have a little more money to spend this year, thanks to a one-year cut in Social Security taxes.

But most of the extra $1,000 to $2,000 per person is filling the gas tank. The national average for a gallon was $3.82 on Friday — nearly $1 more than a year ago. In five states, the average price is exceeding $4 a gallon.

How big the economic impact will be is the critical question. Many analysts expect food prices will come down and oil prices will stabilize by summer. If companies continue to create jobs, consumer spending will rise faster. That would give the economy a boost by fall.

U.S. manufacturers are seeing more business, according to a separate report on Friday from the Federal Reserve. Factory output rose in March, bolstered in part by a jump in auto production.

One concern is automakers are bracing for some disruptions in the supply of parts from Japan, which is recovering from a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami that caused widespread damage.

Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, predicts the economy will grow only 1.8 percent in the January-March period, down from an earlier estimate of above 3 percent. Rising inflation will likely cut consumer spending growth to half its pace in the previous quarter.

the power of faith is what'll drive man back to the abiotic reservoirs...,

Video - Peak Oil myth scientifically disproved (there is no oil shortage)

In response to some viewer critiques, this updated video takes a purely scientific approach to the Peak Oil myth. It exposes the eco-zealot conspiracy to deny big-bore engines to working Americans and tax them into smaller cars and homes.

If the Peak Oil doomsayers aren't stopped, economic growth may end by 2024, halting Man's productive use of nature and putting millions out of work. Americans will be forced to live "sustainably" in cedar bark huts, eating "locally grown" rhubarbs and pine nuts. The whole hippie agenda seeks to take away our pride.

Help stop this creeping socialism by spreading the word about this educational video and demanding that Congress investigate abiotic oil. Never vote for RINO Roscoe Bartlett if he runs for President, and don't believe Barack Hussein Obama when he claims that America only has 2% of the world's oil. Think independently and The Truth will come to you.

magical thinking at the pump

Video - "pastor" Marshall Mabry clowning on CNN

AJC | Members of a central Georgia church plan to gather at gas pumps to pray for lower prices.
Related

WMAZ-TV reports the Beacon of Light Christian Center is planning the Saturday prayer gathering at gas pumps outside a Kroger grocery store in Dublin.

Pastor Marshall Mabry said he believes that if church members come together and pray as a community, they can make something happen.

Mabry said that with prices reaching almost $4, he says he plans to ask God for help.

He said it's the third time members of his congregation have met at gas pumps to pray.

Mabry said he wants to start a movement which spreads from the small town of Dublin to the rest of the nation.

Dublin is about 130 miles southeast of Atlanta.

tap the strategic petroleum reserve? why?

CNN | This isn't like the last time the U.S. tapped the SPR back in 2005. That followed a huge surge in oil and gas prices in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, which did actually wreak havoc on production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite all the worries about supply disruption, the U.S. still is not facing any shortage. In fact, it's the exact opposite.

"If you really look at the inventories in the U.S., frankly we're oversupplied," said Blake Fernandez, an analyst who covers shares of integrated oil companies and independent refiners for energy research firm Howard Weil in New Orleans.

According to the most recent figures from the Department of Energy, the stockpile of oil is 1.4% above levels from last year. Fernandez added that according to his firm's estimates, inventories are 4% above their 5-year average.

Tapping the SPR is short-sighted, said David Pursell, managing director with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., a Houston-based investment bank focusing on the energy industry.
CNN iReport: How much is gas where you live?

Pursell said he recognizes that lawmakers must be getting angry calls from anxious constituents about gas prices. But that's not an excuse to do something without fully thinking about the consequences

"Outside of Washington, this plan doesn't make sense," Pursell said. "But we don't have a shortage of crude, just a fear of a shortage. So where would you put the oil you release from the SPR?"

singin those $4.00/gallon blues already...,

Fox4News | AAA reports gas prices rose by four cents on Saturday night. The new national average is $3.47. People is Kansas City say they're feeling the pain at the pump as prices continue to soar.

FOX 4 visited Poco's Mexican Restaurant on Sunday morning. Customers say they eat there because the food's good and the prices are good too. Still, the owner admits sometimes people keep a watchful eye as the gas prices change across the street from the restaurant. Poco's also pays attention to the price of gas because delivery is a part of their business.

"It's really tough for us because we also do catering and we're always on the road," said Claudia Gutierrez with Poco's. "We had to up our prices a little bit and the customers aren't really happy about that."

Raymond and Gina Munoz say they take their kids to Poco's twice a month. On Sunday, their bill was about $50.

"That's a tank of gas for one of our vehicles," said customer Gina Munoz.

The Munoz family says they may have to cut back on eating out.

"You've gotta have gas to go places, so it's like, what do you do?" said Raymond Munoz. "You've got to find ways to compensate I guess."

The Munoz family say they may end up walking to the restaurant next time. Other customers say they'll keep a bright outlook even though it doesn't look so bright at the gas station across the street.

The owner of Poco's says they shop around for the best gas prices in both Kansas and Missouri before they head out on a food delivery.

americans will violently protest $5.00/gallon gasoline...,

Video - Students in London shout "off with their heads" at Charles and Camilla.

NYTimes | According to the French writer Agnès Poirier, “It is not in the British DNA to demonstrate. The British simply don’t believe in it.” Early last month, when Ms. Poirier, who lives in London, made her comparison between the revolutionary tradition of her native country and the stiff-upper-lip stoicism that seemed to characterize the British response to the financial crisis, there appeared little reason to argue.

But on Nov. 10 tens of thousands of students took to the streets to protest government plans to cut the education budget while sharply increasing tuition fees. Two weeks later, the students were out again, this time in even greater numbers, though the police — stung by criticism for allowing a few demonstrators to vandalize Conservative Party headquarters — responded by herding many protesters into improvised enclosures where they were kept for several hours, a tactic known as “kettling.”

Last Tuesday saw yet another twist, as students, anxious to avoid kettling, played a cat-and-mouse game with police all through central London. Instead of marching from Trafalgar Square to Westminster as planned — and where massed ranks of police, some on horseback, were prepared to turn protesters away from Parliament, which was debating a Labour Party motion opposing the government’s proposals — groups of chanting students ran through Whitehall and around Buckingham Palace while helmet-clad riot police gave chase. Smaller groups of students marched down Oxford Street and Regent Street shouting slogans at bemused Christmas shoppers.

There were simultaneous demonstrations in Brighton, Birmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Manchester, Newcastle and Oxford. Although the police in London arrested 146 people who refused to leave Trafalgar Square, for the most part this third wave of protests ended peacefully. The British protests are expected to continue at least until Parliament votes Thursday on the proposed changes.

“Nonviolence is essential — once we resort to violence it’s the only thing the media picks up,” said Milaad Rajai, co-president of the Student Union at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, where protesters have been peacefully occupying the Brunei Gallery since Nov. 21. Students have also taken over buildings at University College London, Manchester Metropolitan University, Bristol and Cambridge.

Don't Hate the Playa.....,

Gasoline Shortages

Where is our gasoline and diesel supply headed? Even before Ike hit, quite a few areas of the US were starting to see gasoline shortages. The impact of Ike could only make shortages worse. Most likely, it will take refineries at least a week or two to get production back to normal levels after a storm of this type, considering the impacts of electrical outages and flooding. In this article, I will examine some of the issues that seem to be involved. Based on my analysis, fuel supply shortages are likely to last well into October, and are likely to get considerably worse before they get better.
Until Colonial pipeline is back to carrying full capacity of gasoline, diesel, and other refined products, there are likely to be shortages along the gulf coast and the Southeast. The Northeast may also begin to see shortages.

Other major outages have also been reported. Explorer pipeline, carrying 700,000 barrels a day of petroleum products from Texas/LA to Indiana, is completely shut down. Plantation pipeline, carrying 600,000 barrels a day of petroleum products from Louisiana to Virginia, is operating at reduced rates. Implications of a ten day refinery outage.

Map of the Colonial Pipeline

No Gas Gauging in Seattle...,

This just in from Big Don; Dealers up here apparently haven't figgered out yet what they can get away with. These pix are 30 minutes old, lowest we've seen here since before the four-dollar era started...

The Varying Impact of Gas Prices

Gas prices are high throughout the country, but how hard they hit individual families depends on income levels, which vary widely. Click on the image to go to NYTimes Interactive article - then go check out the companion article Rural U.S. Takes Worst Hit as Gas Tops $4 Average.

Blue Gardena....,

This just in from my man rembom. Gardena pushing up hard on the $5.00 Gas Club. Today, at 190th and Western, Gardena, CA. (note the palm tree in the background Ed Dunn, in case you're busy scrutinizing....,)

Kent WA Joins the $4.00 Gas Club

Courtesy Big Don - Today in Kent Washington

Cerritos Joins the $4.00 Gas Club

Courtesy Rembom - May 28, 2008, at Bloomfield and Artesia, in Cerritos, CA

Chicago Joins the $4.00 Gas Club

My children and I love to play a driving game called "yellow car, lucky day" - I'm sure some of you know it. The goal is to be first to spot and tally up the largest number of yellow motor vehicles. Yellow tractors but not lawnmowers count a half point, purple cars count two points, but they have to be truly purple not oxblood colored, or whatever that ugly deep reddish brownish color sometimes passing itself off as purple is called.

Anyway, I thought we could start our own blogospheric version of the game except the object would be to spot $4.00/gallon gasoline for sale in a locality near you. We'll call this the $4.00 Gas Club. Send a picture with details to subrealistro@gmail.com.

Now don't cheat and use gasbuddy.com and please do send a photo or a link to a photo of the offending purveyor on flicker or other web photo archiving site. Who knows, the $4.00 (and soon $5.00) Gas Club could have stronger legs than the "A Kneegrow Said It" club. Oh yeah, given what I expect to see coming down the political pike, the "A Kneegrow Said It" blogpost category gets its very own contest too. The only rule there is that offending submissions have to have been spotlighted on a mainstream media outlet and used as a sockpuppet proxy for what the showcasing pundit would have loved to say themselves, but can't, and so exploits a willing and expendable proxy. Doubtless James David Manning will be in high demand after his moment of infamy on Limbaugh's boradcast yesterday.