TCH | I wouldn’t normally write a post like this, but WE ARE NOT going to
find this level of ground reporting anywhere in U.S. media. As you
might be aware, I have been doing extensive research on the Russian
economy specifically with the outcome of western sanctions.
In his video a Youtuber I follow visited a local supermarket, similar
to a WalMart Super Center to share information for his USA followers.
Dima Dear, a remarkably nice young man, lives in St Petersburg,
Russia (formerly Leningrad), and he shares various experiences with his
audience at their request. There is a lot of U.S interest as people
following his story are starting to realize life in Russia is not what
western media portray.
If you are familiar with USA grocery prices, what Dima shares in this
ground report is stunning from a U.S. perspective. If you watch this
livestream, keep in mind that 100 rubles equals $1.00. 350 rubles is
$3.50. Additionally for weighted products 1kg equals 2.2 lbs. So
generally speaking, if something is 100 rubles/kg it is $1 for two
pounds.
Example from the video:
•Lean ground beef at 329 rubles/kg is less than $1.65/lb.
•Bacon at 250 rubles/kg is less than $1.25/lb.
•20 eggs are 139 rubles or $1.39.
•Boneless skinless chicken breast $4 for 4lbs.
•Typical Bagged salad mixes .79¢ each. etc.
The wild part is that in Russia they are getting worried these prices are too high.
The average rent for a nicely furnished 2-bedroom modern apartment in
St Pete Russia is around $500/month. Something akin to downtown
Manhattan. Including rent, utilities, food, transportation, personal
items and purchases, a Russian citizen can live very comfortably,
remarkably comfortably, on an income of around $1,200 to $1,500/month.
In downtown St Pete which is considered a more expensive place to live.
Put that into a USA middle-class perspective and evaluate the impact
of western sanctions against the average Russian cost of living.
sputnik | Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov earlier said that Kiev’s counteroffensive, which was launched on June 4, has been unsuccessful on all fronts as Russia continues its special military operation in Ukraine.
The next few weeks will see the Ukrainian counteroffensive “run its course”, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist and Bank of America strategist David Woo has told Russian media.
Woo said that he was “really impressed” with the fact that "Russian military technology has literally been going through a revolution every three months" and "the Russians are constantly learning from their mistakes."
“The Russians are now fighting with weapons they didn’t have 18 months ago because they didn’t exist 18 months ago. And that to me is the most impressive thing, […] whereas the West is still walking around in the same circle, Russia’s getting better and better, and this war is gonna [sic] be won by technology in the end,” the former IMF economist argued.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov earlier said that Kiev’s counteroffensive, which was launched on June 4, has been unsuccessful on all fronts as Russia continues its special military operation in Ukraine. The next few weeks will see the Ukrainian counteroffensive “run its course”, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist and Bank of America strategist David Woo has told Russian media.
Woo said that he was “really impressed” with the fact that "Russian military technology has literally been going through a revolution every three months" and "the Russians are constantly learning from their mistakes." “The Russians are now fighting with weapons they didn’t have 18 months ago because they didn’t exist 18 months ago. And that to me is the most impressive thing, […] whereas the West is still walking around in the same circle, Russia’s getting better and better, and this war is gonna [sic] be won by technology in the end,” the former IMF economist argued.
He was echoed by the Russian Defense Ministry, which, in turn, said that Ukrainian troops kept trying, but were failing to advance as they continue to suffer heavy losses in men and materiel. A number of Western media outlets also pointed to the unimpressive results of Kiev's counteroffensive, admitting that its progress was "slower than desired." Fist tap Dale
RUSI | This report seeks to outline how Russian forces have adapted their
tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges this has created
for the Ukrainian military that must be overcome. The report examines
Russian military adaptation by combat function.
Russian infantry tactics have shifted from trying to deploy uniform
Battalion Tactical Groups as combined arms units of action to a
stratified division by function into line, assault, specialised and
disposable troops. These are formed into task-organised groupings. Line
infantry are largely used for ground holding and defensive operations.
Disposable infantry are used for continuous skirmishing to either
identify Ukrainian firing positions, which are then targeted by
specialised infantry, or to find weak points in Ukrainian defences to be
prioritised for assault. Casualties are very unevenly distributed
across these functions. The foremost weakness across Russian infantry
units is low morale, which leads to poor unit cohesion and inter-unit
cooperation.
Russian engineering has proven to be one of the stronger branches of
the Russian military. Russian engineers have been constructing complex
obstacles and field fortifications across the front. This includes
concrete reinforced trenches and command bunkers, wire-entanglements,
hedgehogs, anti-tank ditches, and complex minefields. Russian mine
laying is extensive and mixes anti-tank and victim-initiated
anti-personnel mines, the latter frequently being laid with multiple
initiation mechanisms to complicate breaching. These defences pose a
major tactical challenge to Ukrainian offensive operations.
Russian armour is rarely used for attempts at breakthrough. Instead,
armour is largely employed in a fire support function to deliver
accurate fire against Ukrainian positions. Russia has started to employ
thermal camouflage on its vehicles and, using a range of other
modifications and tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs), has
significantly reduced the detectability of tanks at stand-off ranges.
Furthermore, these measures have reduced the probability of kill of a
variety of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) at ranges beyond 1,400 m.
Russian artillery has begun to significantly refine the
Reconnaissance Strike Complex following the destruction of its
ammunition stockpiles and command and control infrastructure by guided
multiple-launch rocket systems (GMLRS) in July 2022. This has resulted
in much closer integration of multiple UAVs directly supporting
commanders authorised to apply fires. Russian artillery has also
improved its ability to fire from multiple positions and to fire and
move, reducing susceptibility to counterbattery fire. The key system
enabling this coordination appears to be the Strelets system. There has
been a shift in reliance upon 152-mm howitzers to a much greater
emphasis on 120-mm mortars in Russian fires; this reflects munitions and
barrel availability. Responsive Russian fires represent the greatest
challenge to Ukrainian offensive operations. Russian artillery is also
increasingly relying on loitering munitions for counterbattery fires.
Russian electronic warfare (EW) remains potent, with an approximate
distribution of at least one major system covering each 10 km of front.
These systems are heavily weighted towards the defeat of UAVs and tend
not to try and deconflict their effects. Ukrainian UAV losses remain at
approximately 10,000 per month. Russian EW is also apparently achieving
real time interception and decryption of Ukrainian Motorola 256-bit
encrypted tactical communications systems, which are widely employed by
the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Russian air defences have also seen a significant increase in their
effectiveness now that they are set up around known, and fairly static,
locations and are properly connected. Although Russia has persistently
struggled to respond to emerging threats, over time it has adapted.
Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be
intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are
directly connected to superior radar.
Russian aviation remains constrained to delivering stand-off effects,
ranging from responsive lofted S-8 salvos against Ukrainian forming-up
points, to FAB-500 glide bombs delivered from medium altitude to ranges
up to 70 km. The Ukrainian military notes that Russia has a large
stockpile of FAB-500s and is systematically upgrading them with glide
kits. Although they only have limited accuracy, the size of these
munitions poses a serious threat. The Russian Aerospace Forces remain a
‘force in being’ and a major threat to advancing Ukrainian forces,
although they currently lack the capabilities to penetrate Ukrainian air
defences.
Following the destruction of Russian command and control
infrastructure in July 2022, the Russian military withdrew major
headquarters out of range of GMLRS and placed them in hardened
structures. They also wired them into the Ukrainian civil
telecommunications network and used field cables to branch from this to
brigade headquarters further forward. Assigned assets tend to connect to
these headquarters via microlink, significantly reducing their
signature. At the same time, from the battalion down, Russian forces
largely rely on unencrypted analogue military radios, reflecting a
shortage of trained signallers at the tactical level.
This is the first time in history that the U.S. now has absolute proof
that Russian systems can penetrate the most advanced U.S. defenses.
Recall, that reportedly Ukraine was armed with the latest Pac-3
missiles, not the older Pac-2s,
etc. This has dire consequences for all European security as it proves
that Russian missiles can now penetrate any NATO base in Poland and
elsewhere with full impunity. In fact, these are the types of tectonic
moments that create generational doctrinal
shifts and change the calculus of defense postures entirely.
militarywatchmagazine | On May 16 as part of a complex series of strikes on the Ukrainian
capital Kiev the Russian Air Force employed the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal
hypersonic ballistic missile to neutralise a unit from an American
Patriot air defence system, destroying its a radar and a control centre
and reportedly at least one of its launchers. According to Russian
sources, the Ukrainian crew operating the Patriot were aware a strike
was incoming, but had only a limited warning time due to the Kinzhal
missile’s very high speed - limiting opportunities for the missile
system to change position or reload. The Patriot system targeted was one
of two delivered, with Germany and the United States having each
supplied a single unit. The unit reportedly fired 32 surface to air
missiles at the Kinzhal on approach, which at approximately $3 million
each amounted to a $96 million barrage to attempt to destroy a missile
with an estimated cost of under $2 million. The very high cost and
limited number of the Patriot’s interceptors was a key argument for not sending the systems to Ukraine, with their effectiveness also having been brought to question not only due to the system’s highly troubled combat record, but also to the advanced capabilities
of new Russian missiles such as the Kinzhal, Iskander and Zicron. These
are considered nearly impossible to intercept particularly in their
terminal stages. The delivery of Patriots was nevertheless seen as
necessary due to the near collapse of Ukrainian air defences, as warnings have been given
with growing frequency by both Western and Ukrainian sources that the
arsenal of S-300 and BuK missile systems protecting the country has
become critically depleted.
Destruction of the Patriot systems comes less than a month after the first systems were delivered in April, and follows a warning in December from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the destruction of the systems was an absolute certainty should
they be deployed in Ukraine. He assured that with Washington “now
saying that they can put a Patriot [in Ukraine]. Okay, let them do it.
We will crack the Patriot [like a nut] too, and something will need to
be installed in its place, new systems need to be developed - this is a
complex and lengthy process” - indicating that NATO had no newer
generations of long range air defence systems available to replace the
Patriot once its vulnerability was demonstrated. “Our adversaries
proceed from the idea that this is supposedly a defensive weapon. All
right, we'll keep that in mind. And an antidote can always be found,"
Putin added. The United States notably reassured Russia in
December that Patriot systems would not be manned by American
personnel, which was interpreted by some sources as an effective green
light to proceed with strikes. With Ukrainian personnel expected to take until 2024
to learn to operate Patriots, they are thought to have been manned by
contractors from NATO member states who are already acquainted with the
systems.
simplicius76 | An important distinction has been long overdue in the making, as
pertains to a topic of much confusion and misinterpretation to a great
many people.
There’s an inherent misconception about the
conceptual differences between Soviet/Russian military systems (read:
weapons) and those of NATO/Western equivalents. Endless debate has been
made not only about which side’s weapons are ‘better’, but the doctrinal
purpose behind their respective philosophies.
The most inane of
these debates revolve around the reductive arguments that Russian
weapons are made ‘to be mass-produced’ and ‘cheap’, like some chintzy
dollar-store toy, while Western weapons are made to be high-value,
advanced, but prohibitively expensive, complexes. This is often
supported with the usual assortment of examples, like mass-produced
Russian tanks in WW2 getting killed in 10:1 ratios against the much more
advanced but fewer in number German tanks. And a generous handful of
mis-attributed quotes is then sprinkled in to justify this view. Like
Stalin’s purported “quantity has a quality of its own”, etc., not to
mention the tired references to Soviet ‘human wave’ tactics.
One need only to look at the Leopard 2 disaster that befell NATO-member Turkey, during an incursion into ISIS-controlled Syria:
The ‘top-tier’ Western tanks were picked off as easily as if they
were Saddam’s knock-off T-72 ‘Asad Babils’, presaging the types of
losses Western forces could expect against an actual peer foe with
modern weaponry.
But going back for a moment to crew
sizes, the American M777’s handed over to Ukraine require a whopping 8
man crew to operate properly. Here a ‘speedy’ Ukrainian team shows their operations on the system with all 8 positions. Meanwhile, a comparable Russian D-30 gun crew
does a breakdown in roughly the same time, but with half the men per
gun. There’s an anecdote about the Somali Battalion legend, commander
‘Givi’, who taught one of his recruits to shoot a D-20 howitzer at UA
positions in the Donetsk Airport by himself. That’s right—a single man loading, aiming, and operating the howitzer—because in Total War, necessity is the virtue which begets victory.
In
areas where it lends itself to more utility, Russia shrewdly invests in
automation, and shuns it in areas where too much of it makes logistics
operations overly reliant and vulnerable to breakdown.
Russian MBT’s (Main Battle Tanks), too, can be quickly and conveniently
snorkeled for safe underwater operation—giving them the rare ability to
traverse riverbeds.
smoothiex | there
are hyper-sonic weapons and there are hyper-sonic weapons. The United
States is trying to come up with something like both Avangard
(long-range) and Kinzhal (medium range) which are either ballistic or
quasi-ballistic weapons which do fly either inside the atmosphere or
bounce from its edge, such as those gliders akin to Avangard.
Eventually, the United States will be able to come up with something
like that and the US desperately wants something like Kinzhal (in effect
an advanced airborne version of Iskander). These are weapons which have
only a boost phase, after which they fly and maneuver without
propulsion. Look also up project Kholod.
Now,
3M22 Zircon is a whole other animal altogether because it has a
propulsion which works till the very end and thus provides this missile
with the atmospheric speed of M=10 and the range of 1000 kilometers,
coming modification of GZUR and Zircon will have the range of 1500 km
and speed in excess of M=12-13. These weapons can attack both moving
targets (like ships) and, obviously, stationary objects. These are the
real game changers in a real war. If strategic weapons such as Avangard
are what the United States wants, those, like any other deterrent exists
to... deter merely by the threat of their use in case shit hits the
fan. Kinzhal with Zircon, however, are the weapons of battlefield,
because their main task is to sink enemy's ships and blow up military
facilities using non-nuclear ordnance, albeit these weapons too can
carry nuclear warhead and can destroy a good size city. If Avangard was
created to be uninterceptable by dedicated weapons of (strategic)
Anti-Missile Defense, both Kinzhal and Zircon cannot be intercepted by
existing air-defense and anti-missile systems such as THAAD or SM3/SM6
variety integrated with the AEGIS.
While
Avangard, and Sarmat (especially Sarmat) render any anti-missile
defense useless, Kinzhal and Zircon are the most impactful, because they
change modern warfare radically and already made modern surface fleets
obsolete even within non-nuclear paradigm. As I repeat ad nauseam about
repeating this ad nauseam--this is a strategic catastrophe for NATO (and
US) because everything what NATO's "fighting doctrine" was built around
in the last 40-50 years has become simply useless. I will give some ASW
math on that later, but a single Yasen-class (pr. 885) with 15-20
Zircons "parked" somewhere in the Atlantic in
1000 kilometer range from D.C. is not only extremely hard to detect and
will require enormous forces dedicated to this kind of ASW, but
controls the movement of any US naval asset from Norfolk or any other
base on the East Coast which in case of (God forbids) real war will not
be able to deploy. Granted, of course, that Russia builds 10 of such
subs, modernizes couple of pr. 949A to AMs (that is 72 cruise missiles,
including God knows how many Zircons) and there you go. So, in other
words, it is not going to be a single sub.
In
related news, Russia officially announced the increase of range of
venerable X-35 (of Bal complex) to 500+ kilometer, after Russkies were
scared shitless by great American "strategist", prognosticator, second
coming of Clausewitz and Sun Tzu wrapped in one, really, the great heir
to the intellectual prowess of Mahan and Zumwalt, David Axe who promised to starve Kaliningrad by Estonian 300 km range anti-shipping missiles. As you know, Shoigu and Gerasimov start their every
morning by going to Forbes site trying to learn if David Axe has come
up with a new stratagem designed to defeat those pesky Russkies. So,
they went, saw the article on Estonian missiles, got scared and decided
that covering both Baltic and Black Seas with the salvos (each of them)
capable to contain between 16 to 32 X-35s is a really bad news for any
NATO forces there, especially mighty Estonian ones. I would love to
explain to David Axe basic math behind Salvo Equations and distribution
of probabilities, but I don't think he wants to lower himself to my
primitive level, so I have to live with that and I am sure Shoigu and
Gerasimov will continue visiting those "military" sites such as Forbes
or The National Interests to partake in strategic and operational wisdom
of their "experts".
valdaiclub | On October 24-27, 2022, the 19th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club,
titled “A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone”,
opens in Moscow. The annual Valdai Club Report “A World Without
Superpowers” will be presented at the conference. This year’s report is
based on the Valdai Club’s hypothesis about the inevitable oblivion of
the “superpower” concept. The opening of the meeting and the
presentation of the new Valdai Report can be viewed here.
Live broadcast on the site begins October 24, 2022 at 9:30 a.m. Moscow Time (GMT+3)
The meeting will be attended by 111 experts, politicians, diplomats and
economists from 41 countries, including Afghanistan, Brazil, China,
Egypt, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia,
South Africa, Turkey, the United States, Uzbekistan, and others.
Traditionally, more than half of the participants in the Valdai Club
meeting are representatives of foreign countries, and this year is no
exception.
americanaffairsjournal | The book really comes into its own in the long sections on the
American economy. These chapters seem especially prescient after Western
sanctions against Russia failed to stop the invasion or decisively
cripple the Russian economy, while causing increasing strains in the
West. In a word, Martyanov views American prosperity as largely fake, a
shiny wrapping distracting from an increasingly hollow interior.
Martyanov, reflecting his Soviet materialist education, starts by
discussing the food supply. He recalls the limited food options
available in the old Soviet Union and how impressed émigrés were by the
“overflowing abundance” of the American convenience store. But
Martyanov notes that today such abundance is only the preserve of the
rich and powerful. He references a 2020 study by the Brookings
Institution which found that “40.9 percent of mothers with children ages
12 and under reported household food insecurity since the onset of the
Covid-19 pandemic.” And while some of this was driven by the pandemic,
the number was 15.1 percent in 2018. Martyanov makes the case that these
numbers reflect an economy that is poorly organized and teetering on
the edge. In the summer of 2022, when the food component of the CPI is
increasing at over 10 percent a year and rising fast, Martyanov’s
chapter looks prophetic.
Martyanov then moves on to other consumer goods. He recalls the
so-called kitchen debate in 1959 when Vice President Richard Nixon
showed Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev a modern American kitchen.
During this debate, Nixon explained to Khrushchev that the house they
were in, with all its modern luxuries, could be bought by “any steel
worker.” Nixon explained that the average American steel worker earned
about $3 an hour—or $480 per month—and
that the house could be obtained on a thirty-year mortgage for the cost
of $100 a month. Martyanov points out that this is impossible in the
contemporary American economy. As vital goods have become less and less
affordable for the average American, debt of all types has exploded. He
notes that the flip side of this growing debt has been a decline in
domestic industrial production, which has been stagnant in nominal
terms and falling as a percent of U.S. GDP since 2008. “The scale of
this catastrophe is not understood,” he writes, “until one considers the
fact that a single manufacturing job on average generates 3.4 employees
elsewhere in non-manufacturing sectors.”
Needless to say, Martyanov does not believe that America has the most
powerful economy on earth. Deploying his old school materialist
toolkit, he surveys core heavy industries—including the automotive industry, the commercial shipbuilding industry, and later the aerospace industry—and
finds U.S. capacity wanting. He points out that in steel production
“China outproduces the United States by a factor of 11, while Russia,
which has a population less than half the size of that of the United
States, produces around 81% of US steel output.”
Martyanov is particularly critical of GDP metrics as a basis for
determining the wealth of a country or the power of its economy, because
they assign spending on services the same weight as spending on primary
products and manufactured goods. He believes that the postindustrial
economy is a “figment of the imagination of Wall Street financial
strategists” and that GDP metrics merely provide America with a fig leaf
to cover its economic weaknesses. In a separate podcast
that Martyanov posted to his YouTube channel, he explains why these
metrics are particularly misleading from the point of view of military
production. He compares the U.S. Navy’s Virginia-class fast-attack
submarine and the Russian Yasen-class equivalent. He argues that these
are comparable in terms of their platform capabilities, but that the
Yasen-class has superior armaments. Crucially, however, he notes that
the cost of a Virginia-class submarine is around $3.2 billion while the
cost of the Yasen-class submarine is only around $1 billion. Since GDP
measures quantify economic output (including military output) in dollar
terms, it would appear that, when it comes to submarine output, Russia
is producing less than a third of what it is actually producing. Using a
purchasing-power-parity-adjusted measure might help somewhat here, but
it would still not capture the extra bang for their buck that the
Russians are getting.
A few years ago, it would have been fashionable to dismiss this sort
of materialist analysis as old fashioned. Pundits argued that the
growing weight of the service sector in the American economy was a good
thing, not a bad thing, a sign of progress, not decline. But today, with
supply chains collapsing and inflation raging, these fashionable
arguments look more and more like self-serving bromides every day.
Next, Martyanov looks at energy. While many American pundits believed
that the emergence of fracking technology would make Russian oil and
gas less and less important, Martyanov views the shale oil boom as “a
story of technology winning over common economic sense.” He believes
that America’s shale boom was a speculative mania driven by vague
promises and cheap credit. He quotes the financial analyst David
Deckelbaum, who noted that “This is an industry that for every dollar
that they brought in, they would spend two.” Ultimately, Martyanov
argues, the U.S. shale industry is a paper tiger whose viability is
heavily dependent on high oil prices.
Martyanov is even more critical of “green energy,” which he views as a
self-destructive set of policies that will destroy the energy
independence of all countries that pursue them. He also points out that
China, Russia, and most non-Western nations know this and, despite lip
service to fashionable green causes, avoid these policies.
Finally, Martyanov returns to the collapse of America’s ability to
make things. He recites the now familiar numbers about falling
manufacturing output and an increased reliance on imports from abroad.
But he also points to the collapse in manufacturing expertise. Martyanov
cites statistics showing that, on a per capita basis, Russia produces
twice as many STEM graduates as America. He attributes this to a change
in elite attitudes. STEM subjects are difficult and require serious
intellectual exertion. They often yield jobs on factory floors that are
not particularly glamorous. “In contemporary American culture dominated
by poor taste and low quality ideological, agenda-driven art and
entertainment, being a fashion designer or a disc jockey or a
psychologist is by far a more attractive career goal,” he writes,
“especially for America’s urban and college population, than foreseeing
oneself on the manufacturing floor working as a CNC operator or mechanic
on the assembly line.”
Rotting from the Head Down
Martyanov’s economic analysis may reflect his Soviet materialist
education, but ultimately, he views America’s core problem as being a
crisis of leadership. He traces this problem back to the election of
Bill Clinton in 1993. Martyanov argues that Clinton represented a new
type of American leader: an extreme meritocrat. These new meritocrats
believed their personal capacities gave them the ability to do anything
imaginable. This megalomaniacal tendency, Martyanov observes, has been
latent in the American project since the founding. “Everything
American,” he writes, “must be the largest, the fastest, the most
efficient or, in general, simply the best.” Yet this character trait has
not dominated the personality of either the American people or their
leaders, he says. Rather, the American people remain today “very nice
folks” that “are generally patriotic and have common sense and a good
sense of humour.” Yet in recent times, he argues, something has happened
in American elite circles that has let the more grandiose and
delusional side of the American psyche run amok, and this has happened
at the very time when America is most in need of good leadership.
Martyanov believes that America’s extreme meritocrats vastly
overestimate their capabilities. This is because, rather than focusing
on the strengths and weaknesses of the country they rule, they have been
taught since birth to focus on themselves. They believe that they just
need to maximize their own personal accomplishments and the good of the
country will emerge as if by magic. This has led inevitably to the rise
of what Martyanov characterizes as a classic oligarchy. Such an
oligarchy, he argues, purports to be meritocratic but is actually the
opposite. A proper meritocracy allows the best and the brightest to
climb up its ranks. But an oligarchy with a meritocratic veneer simply
allows those who best play the game to rise. Thus, the meritocratic
claims become circular: you climb the ladder because you play the game;
the game is meritocratic because those who play it are by definition the
best and the brightest. Effectively, for Martyanov, the American elite
does not select for intelligence and wisdom, but rather for
self-assuredness and self-interestedness.
Pernicious frauds have tricked miseducated subjects into the absurd delusion that the whole
Russian awakening and change of course has been the result Putin's
takeover. But ask yourself, who chose him and made Yeltsin put him up as
PM?
Russia may not have the deep state in the
same way that the U.S. does, but influential and respected Russian elders had and continue to have a way to
make themselves heard. Very obviously, a group of elder
Russian statesmen got together - worried about Russia going to the dogs - and
engineered a quiet changeover. However it happened,
Putin did not make it to the top by himself, and most certainly he has
not been alone in running things, as the West would like its most simple-minded subjects to believe.
So
do not worry about Valodya's health and Russian leadership's succession. Everyone in Russia has learned
the lesson from the 1990s. The support that
Russians extend to Putin is not so much personal, it is instead support for his policies for making Russia strong, independent and
proud.
The idea that the Russian people would fall
for Western "beads" again is ludicrous.
RG-RU.Translate.Goog |Vladimir Putin: Thank you very much! Dear Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich! Dear friends, colleagues!
I greet the participants and guests of the anniversary XXV St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
It
is taking place at a difficult time for the entire world community,
when the economy, markets, and the very principles of the global
economic system are under attack. Many trade, production, and logistics ties that were previously disrupted by the pandemic are now going through new tests. Moreover,
such key concepts for business as business reputation, inviolability of
property and trust in world currencies have been thoroughly undermined -
undermined, unfortunately, by our partners in the West, and this was
done intentionally, for the sake of ambition, in the name of preserving
outdated geopolitical illusions.
Today
ours - when I say "ours" I mean the Russian leadership - has its own
view of the situation in which the global economy finds itself. I
will dwell in detail on how Russia is acting in these conditions and
how it is planning its development in a dynamically changing
environment.
A
year and a half ago, speaking at the Davos Forum, I once again
emphasized that the era of the unipolar world order is over - I want to
start with this, there is no getting away from it - it has ended despite
all attempts to preserve it, to conserve it by any means. Changes
are a natural course of history, since the civilizational diversity of
the planet, the richness of cultures is difficult to combine with
political, economic and other patterns, patterns do not work here,
patterns that are rudely, without alternative, imposed from one center.
The
flaw lies in the very idea, according to which there is one, albeit a
strong power with a limited circle of approximate or, as they say,
states admitted to it, and all the rules of business and international
relations - when it becomes necessary - are interpreted exclusively in
the interests of this power , as they say, work in one direction, the
game goes in one direction. A world based on such "dogmas" is definitely unsustainable.
The
United States, having declared victory in the Cold War, declared itself
to be the messengers of the Lord on Earth, who have no obligations, but
only interests, and these interests are declared sacred. They
do not seem to notice that over the past decades, new powerful centers
have been formed on the planet and are louder and louder. Each
of them develops its own political systems and public institutions,
implements its own models of economic growth and, of course, has the
right to protect them, to ensure national sovereignty.
We
are talking about objective processes, about truly revolutionary,
tectonic changes in geopolitics, the global economy, in the
technological sphere, in the entire system of international relations,
where the role of dynamic, promising states and regions is significantly
increasing, whose interests can no longer be ignored.
I repeat: these changes are fundamental, pivotal and inexorable. And
it is a mistake to believe that the time of turbulent changes can, as
they say, sit out, wait out, that, supposedly, everything will return to
normal, everything will be as before. Will not.
However, it seems that the ruling elites of some Western states are just in this kind of illusion. They do not want to notice obvious things, but stubbornly cling to the shadows of the past. For example, they believe that the dominance of the West in global politics and economics is an unchanging, eternal value. Nothing is eternal.
Moreover, our colleagues do not simply deny reality. They are trying to counteract the course of history. They think in terms of the last century. They
are captivated by their own delusions about countries outside the
so-called "golden billion": they consider everything else to be the
periphery, their backyard, they still treat them like a colony, and the
peoples living there consider them second-class people, because consider
themselves exceptional. If they are exceptional, then everyone else is second-class.
Hence
- an irrepressible desire to punish, economically crush the one who
stands out from the general ranks, does not want to blindly obey. Moreover,
they rudely and shamelessly impose their own ethics, views on culture
and ideas about history, and sometimes question the sovereignty and
integrity of states, create a threat to their existence. Suffice it to recall the fate of Yugoslavia and Syria, Libya and Iraq.
If some "rebel" cannot be hounded, pacified, then they try to isolate him or, as they say now, "cancel". Everything
is used, even sports, the Olympic movement, a ban on culture,
masterpieces of art - for the sole reason that their authors are of the
"wrong" origin.
This is the nature of the current attack of Russophobia in the West and insane sanctions against Russia. Crazy and, I would say, thoughtless. Their number, as well as the speed of stamping, knows no precedents.
Lavrov, in a snippet from his interview with the BBC at about the 21:50 mark:
I then turned to Russian relations with the UK. It is on Russia's
official list of unfriendly countries, and I suggested that to say
relations were bad was an understatement.
"I don't think there's even room for maneuvre any more," Mr Lavrov
told me, "because both [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson and [Liz] Truss
say openly that we should defeat Russia, we should force Russia to its
knees.
Translation:MOSCOW, May 24 - RIA Novosti.The
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia confirmed its
intention to withdraw from the Bologna process and give priority to the
creation of its own education system, the ministry's press service said.
Here is the key point:
Болонская система предполагает двухуровневую систему образования:
бакалавриат и магистратура. Российская система образования кроме этих
уровней включает подготовку кадров по уровню специалитета с нормативным
сроком освоения образовательных программ в течение пяти-шести лет.
Translation:The Bologna system involves a two-level education system: undergraduate and graduate.The
Russian education system, in addition to these levels, includes
training at the specialist level with a standard term for mastering
educational programs for five to six years.
Read
the whole piece (use Google to translate) and this "specialist" degree
is what makes real professionals. It was always the basis of a superb
Russian/Soviet education which was also program of study-rigid in
providing both an extremely advanced foundation in general science
(Math, Physics, Chemistry, Language etc.) while giving a professional
training of the highest level. Return to classic Russian/Soviet system
is yet another step in breaking the hold of many poor, if not damaging,
Western ideas on Russia's life and this one is huge. You want some
"elective" courses in dancing or acting while studying for engineer?
Good, only on your own expense and time, otherwise, go and take entrance
exams to profile colleges. It is also remarkable that it was Nikolai
Patrushev who took an active role in removing this system.
The consequence of all that will be the return to what Admiral Hyman Rickover was afraid of in 1959:
We
all can observe today a collapse of the Western system of education
through a sheer incompetence, stupidity and malice of contemporary
Western "elites". We also see a precipitous decline in what was always
thought as a strong point of Western education--STEM. Enough to take a
look at Boeing-737 Max and at the killing of the energy sector in EU and
the US. As Buzz Aldrin (I believe) said: in 1969 we thought that we
would be flying to Mars in 2020, instead we have got Facebook. I may add
B-737 Max, LCS and F-35.
So,
I decided to give you all heads-up on this extremely important issue.
And the sigh of relief in Russia, that finally the killing of Russian
educational school is over. Consequences of that will be massive.
kremlin.ru |Vladimir Putin: Sergey Alexandrovich, the company started operating in its original form in 2007. During
this time, 150, in my opinion, enterprises have been created, several
tens of thousands of jobs - somewhere under 40 thousand.
Let's talk about the results of the work in general.
Sergei Kulikov: Mr President, this is indeed true.
You,
as the founder and ideologist of this program, know better than anyone
else that this is not just a state corporation, not just a joint-stock
company, and not even just a development institution – it is a symbol of
investing in science, technology, and the future.
I will try to focus my report on three aspects: technology, science and education, and money.
Indeed, 150 enterprises have been created, and nanotechnologies have taken root in six technological clusters. This is electronics, these are the actual materials, this is optronics, this is the disposal of even municipal solid waste. In terms of science, 53 billion rubles were spent on R&D. One and a half thousand students graduate annually from nanotechnology departments in 28 universities in the countries.
As
we said in December, we have not yet launched a program, but an
initiative for mathematical modeling of materials, and it has already
begun to show results in prototypes. We
didn’t just start, for example, in the MISiS laboratory, we increased
the properties of thermoelectrics by 30–40 percent due to mathematical
modeling, and today we have already launched the next cycle this year –
with major players who are now beginning to understand that everything
starts with materials .
Finance: we pay off debts, last year we paid off the first 20 billion. For those with whom we agree on a discount, we, of course, meet halfway, but the interest accumulates. I have prepared several proposals, I will report to you.
The
good news is that, given that 233 billion rubles were invested in
Rusnano over the years you mentioned, by 2020, 155 billion rubles were
received from exits from the portfolio, from assets. We
added another 50 billion rubles to this piggy bank last year, thus, we
have overcome the psychological barrier of 200 billion rubles, equaling
the investment costs, which, we think, confirms the overall
profitability of our activities.
Returning
to the fact that after all this is a symbol, and not just a joint-stock
company, I would like to emphasize that over these ten years it has
been proven that nanotechnology is necessary, that it is achievable and
that a competitive product cannot be obtained today without immersion in
the morphology of the material. And this is probably really worth investing in - it's time to invest in it right now.
How rich are we today? First, there are three professions.
Nanotechnologist. To
be honest, I myself tried to master it externally, but I realized that
it was better to do my own thing, create conditions for replenishing the
army of process engineers and nanotechnologists.
The second important profession is the technology entrepreneur. And
we have already launched one startup studio at ITMO [National Research
University] as part of the University Technological Entrepreneurship
program under the auspices of the Ministry of Education – it has already
begun to give interesting results, and we have 14 [startup studios] in
our plan this year. Just the task is to get from idea to product much faster.
And the third profession is an investor in science and technology, I would say so. This
is a translator between business and science, who knows what money is
being collected for today, and sets such a task for scientists and, on
the contrary, looks for what scientists invent, and collects money for
this.
As for the portfolio: we have 51 assets left today, of which 18 are in varying degrees of problem. As an example, the Novosibirsk Liotech is a manufacturer of accumulators and batteries. An
old, “bearded” story: the enterprise went bankrupt several times, we
tried to restart it, but in the end we save, first of all, the team,
intellectual property. We
have found a use for them: together with Rosseti - Rosseti Center - in
eleven regions we operate system storage devices, we have successfully
overcome the autumn-winter period in small towns with virtually no
accidents. Today we are already developing the next generation of these solutions.
We
have postponed sales plans for 13 companies until 2023-2024 because the
need for them today to maintain critical infrastructure has become
apparent. I will give examples.
For example, the Perm Novomet is an excellent company that produces submersible sediments for the oil industry. In
general, we expect that if we present them as an assembly point, we
will be able to collect such competencies in order to become an
alternative supplier in principle or replace those who today decide to
change the market.
“Russian
membranes” in Vladimir are, one might say, the heart and basis of water
treatment in general, not only desalination, which is used in the
countries of the [Persian] Gulf, we are actively working with them, but
also water purification, which is especially important today. You know perfectly well that we have agreed with the two governors, and now we are piloting these decisions.
Optovolokno
is a Saransk enterprise in Mordovia, the governor, the Ministry of
Industry and Trade and I agreed to develop it to ...
Vladimir Putin: We need source materials.
Sergei Kulikov: Of course. We will now finish building another redistribution in order to ensure sustainability.
And
of course, today three American and Japanese suppliers have left the
market, and we are now competing only with the Chinese, which is
difficult, for a place in the energy cable and telecom cable. But it is also a very interesting task, you can grow it well.
We
have, as it were, pushed these assets aside, but we will still go into
the strategy so that a private investor joins this task.
Vladimir Putin: Is this realistic? Do you think you will do it?
Sergei Kulikov: We have no choice. How not to? Especially in today's environment: people need to communicate, networks need to be managed. There is no choice, it must be done by any means. And, even if we can’t deliver something, then it will be necessary to look for ways to produce it.
We prepared 20 assets for sale, including foreign ones. For example, assets known to you in the field of alternative energy. We are leaving them and reconfiguring the teams for new tasks. That
is, for example, our power engineers will be engaged in small-scale
generation, the same system drives, that is, some kind of hybrid
solutions that can be applied today.
We left two waste incinerators, and we began to apply this competence, we began to look for new technologies. We
discovered a wonderful solution for ash-free disposal: we built two
reactors, now Rosprirodnadzor does not get out of there and is
surprised, but still looking for there to be no mistake. That is, we do not have emissions, because there is no combustion, and I will also show you this solution after the report.
Manufacturer of nanotubes - you know about it. In general, he went all the way from a startup - the first four stages of technology maturation - to an IPO. This,
in fact, illustrates the general function of Rosnano, when we pick up
from the first to the fourth stage, from the fourth to the eighth, and
then bring it to the market or become a strategic partner.
We
joined forces with the founders and this year brought the nanotube to
use in the automotive components of electric vehicles and are now
piloting it on the road surface. For
example, on the [highway] Moscow-Don, a nanotube was added to the
asphalt material and we are surprised that at plus 50 degrees a rut is
not formed. It seems to me
that this generally deserves a separate development, perhaps on some
more than a ten-year program, in order to see how our roads can be
effectively used.
All
this led to a total - like word of mouth, investors began to come to
us, and we grew in the portfolio by 30 percent over the past year. For the entire period of work of Rosnano - until 2020 - 65 billion rubles of extra-budgetary funds were attracted. We raised 68 [billion] in projects last year, of which only four are our own funds, the rest is external financing.
It
seems to me, if we talk about further reincarnation, that Rosnano, if
you remember, went from a state corporation to a joint-stock company,
that is, it is probably time to think about a public-private
partnership. That is, in newly created funds, we can, in principle, already increase the share of a private investor. We
have such an ambition in the strategy that we will attract in the first
half of its implementation in the proportion of one to four, that is,
for one ruble state or quasi-state four foreign, and by the end of the
implementation period - one to eight.
The team was rebooted, with respect to the founders, in fact, we are even forming the club of the university "Rosnano". We
attracted a lot of young colleagues, added competencies that we lacked,
and based on the previously created groundwork and the groundwork that
we have already formed today, we are looking at projects in the field of
ecology, healthcare, mobility, energy and security, of course.
Vladimir Putin:
But you and I understand that in this regard, one of the key tasks is
to take further steps to improve the financial situation.
kremlin.ru |Vladimir Putin:
Alexei Evgenievich, this year, in December, 15 years have passed since
the law on the creation of the Rosatom Corporation was signed. During this time, a lot of work has been done.
Alexander Likhachev : Yes. We regard the date of the establishment of the state corporation as a very memorable one for us.
In
general, the industry is in its 77th year, we are the same age as the
Great Victory, but at the same time, the creation of the state
corporation marked a completely new stage in the development of the
industry. Indeed, a single
management mechanism was created from a group of enterprises with
common economic indicators, with a unique corporate culture. At
the same time, nuclear competencies were combined - from uranium mining
to the creation and operation of nuclear power plants. And of course, new divisions were created literally from scratch: machine-building, logistics, digital, and a number of others.
If
we talk about performance indicators for 15 years, then you can’t call
it anything other than a “quantum leap”: a 4.5-fold increase in revenue,
a five-fold increase in labor productivity, investments are growing in a
special way - a 15-fold increase in annual investments. Science and research are actively developing, we have 13 times the annual growth of patents.
Over the past five years, we have actively entered new products and the global market. Revenue for five years on new products has almost doubled, foreign revenue has grown by one and a half times.
Vladimir Putin: The most important thing is to increase labor productivity.
Alexander Likhachev: Labor productivity is growing at a faster rate, [faster] than wages, this is very important.
And digital revenue grew a hundredfold. This, of course, with a low base. We will continue to develop, of course.
In the past year, we have a number of regular record indicators. With
the 100% fulfillment of the state defense order, the proceeds reached
1.5 trillion, and this is only in the open part, that is, naturally, we
have much more. The record is 222 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Commissioning of new blocks, the second Leningrad, the first Belarusian blocks. And the Northern Sea Route also set a record of transportation - almost 35 million tons.
We are implementing the decisions taken at your meeting on the Northern Sea Route. Under
the leadership of the Government, we have already moved forward in the
construction of nuclear-powered icebreakers, an ATO [nuclear
technological service] vessel, and in the creation of a unified
navigation management system on the Northern Sea Route. And I hope that in the shortest possible time we will put this work, as they say, on the usual track.
In the first quarter of this year, we have a serious increase: for the same electricity - plus two percent; first-quarter revenue for new products grew 26 percent and foreign products grew 13 percent.
On
the other hand, we understand that we have been living and working
under completely new conditions in recent months and will continue to
work this way, so I would like to draw special attention to a few
points.
Vladimir Putin: Please.
Alexander Likhachev: On international projects. We continue to implement all our international projects as long as they go according to plan. We see the risks with certain individual projects, develop appropriate compensatory measures. I hope that the vast majority of the projects will be successfully completed.
We have reached the second place in uranium mining in the world in recent years. We
confidently hold the first place in terms of enrichment and conversion
and are consistently among the top three in terms of fuel fabrication. In all areas there are groundwork aimed at further development.
We continue cooperation with the IAEA , we participate in the international large thermonuclear project in France (ITER). And
I want to say again that in this sense, the international nuclear
community is not breaking ties yet, as long as this cooperation is
developing.
According to the internal agenda. Our main service, apart from the state defense order, is nuclear energy. In ten years, we have built 11 units and achieved 20 percent of the electricity in the country. You
gave us a plan to increase the share to 25 percent, and by increasing
the share to 25 percent, we have to build another 16 innovation blocks
in the horizon until 2035. The government approved the General Scheme, so we understand where and what to build.
I also want to thank you from the industry for adopting a decree on April 14 to extend our national project until 2030. This
is indeed a very serious decision, it also creates a technological
platform for the fourth generation of nuclear energy, and, most
importantly, gives us the opportunity to build a specific object on
earth. This is the Seversk
project "Breakthrough", this is a multi-purpose fast research reactor,
this is a tokamak fusion facility with reactor technologies, a prototype
of tomorrow's fusion, this is a number of experimental reactors, and,
of course, this is cooperation with Roskosmos, including on rocket
engines for near space, for deep space. All this will be included in the extended national project.
What
is important to emphasize: 95 percent of the Russian nuclear power
plant, as they say, is made in Russia, and five percent are not
critical. We see criticism
at half a percent of our cost – electrical engineering, electronics,
some types of diesel equipment, some types of pumping equipment, and in
principle, we are already creating import substitution alliances with
businesses.
First thought. Russian nuclear technologies are import-independent. And we don't see any limiting factors here.
Second thought. We will place at least a trillion rubles a year outside the industry as orders for the implementation of our national project. This, of course, is a very serious vector for the development of both engineering and the economy as a whole. And
not only, as they say, in large orders, but also in innovation, the
nuclear industry has always been famous for its advanced developments.
Vladimir Putin: Exactly.
A. Likhachev:
I remember very well how in Soviet times, even under the conditions of
the Iron Curtain, both mathematical modeling and work on security
systems developed - all this gave impetus to the creation of a whole
program of new products.
I
myself was surprised to learn that over the past year we have satisfied
the needs of more than 2600 Russian companies and enterprises in
high-tech products, that is, the Russian industry is already returning a
huge stock to us as new innovative orders and directions.
I would like to share the most important of them, in my opinion. At the same meeting on the Arctic, remember, NOVATEK management raised the issue of LNG equipment. We
have built the first test stand in Europe at the Efremov NIIEFA in St.
Petersburg, a solution has been prepared and implemented for cryogenic
heat exchangers. This is the heart of all liquefaction technology. We have learned how to make medium-tonnage ones, and I think we will learn how to make large-tonnage ones as well.
We
are actively receiving requests from the oil and gas industry both for
specific equipment, and in general for new approaches to technologies,
including in the production of hard-to-recover hydrocarbons. Such work is underway, and, for example, we have exemplary cooperation with Gazprom Neft.
We
have completely closed the chain in composites and are moving on to the
production of specific, quite modern medical equipment.
Vladimir Putin: We helped a lot of people with composites right away.
Alexander Likhachev: Yes.
We
are moving forward in digital terms, creating alliances with
enterprises, both small and private Russian companies, large companies,
Rostec, and Russian Railways.
We
ourselves will be two years ahead of your instructions: as early as
2023, one hundred percent of software purchases for critical
infrastructure will be done, and we will generally transfer to Russian
software at a faster pace.
Quantum progressed. We have been working on this topic for two years. According to experts, we have reduced the gap by about half from our foreign partners, competitors somewhere. But in general, in fact, for some technologies they entered the top three. There
is an opinion that a separate type of quants, qudits, is the most
promising for the corresponding processors, and now, along with the USA
and Austria, we have achieved the corresponding prototype of a quantum
processor. And by the way,
they were the first to make a real program, that is, software for a
quantum algorithm in the interests of the nuclear industry.
I cannot but say a few words about the environmental project, this is also a series of your instructions.
A system for controlling industrial waste of the first and second hazard class has been launched, more than 25 thousand users. Seven
factories are being set up on the ground throughout the Russian
Federation for processing, and I am sure that we will put things in
order in this direction.
Plus work with heritage. We completed last September in Chelyabinsk the work on the landfill for household waste. We are going to Krasny Bor for practical work. And all the necessary priority work was carried out both in Usolye-Sibirsky and at the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill.
Vladimir Putin: And what did they do in Usolye-Sibirsky?
Alexei Likhachev: The mercury electrolysis shop has been completely dismantled there, and all the consequences have been eliminated. We started working with the oil lens, where there were dangers of waste going to the Angara. We have prepared all the design work in order to begin full-scale system liquidation this year. There were several dozen extremely dangerous wells, and, in fact, no one knows what was stored in them and in what volumes. Therefore, their neutralization and blocking were also among the priorities.
And in conclusion I would like to say a few words about the team. Indeed, we are not just a technological leader, not just one of the leaders in the global nuclear industry. This is a unique team with its own traditions. We consistently occupy the first places in the ratings of employers. A
very important indicator is engagement, the readiness of people to give
more every day to work, which is at a level that even exceeds the best
world indicators (84 percent). I would like to say that this figure has increased in recent weeks. That
is, there is a certain rallying of the team, and people, rolling up
their sleeves, get to work, see this as their contribution to solving
the problems, the tasks that the country is facing today.
Vladimir Putin: Rosatom is certainly one of our technology leaders. I hope this trend continues.
We talked about materials – we helped many industries at once, from aircraft manufacturing to medicine.
Alexei Likhachev: Mr
Putin, we are now very focused on the machine-building sector, we have
strengthened our machine-building assets, and there are many orders.
And one more thought. The more pressure is put on us, the more work we have, the more the team is mobilized.
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