NYTimes | The economic risks are so glaring that even Paul Krugman and I agree it’s a terrible idea.
What currency will Scotland use? The pound? The euro? No one knows.
What share of North Sea oil revenues will go to Edinburgh? What about
Scotland’s share of Britain’s enormous national debt?
Is
this going to be one of those divorces in which one partner claims all
the assets and offers the other partner only the liabilities? Whatever
the S.N.P. may say, a yes vote on Thursday would have grave economic
consequences, and not just for Scotland. Investment has already stalled.
Big companies based in Scotland, notably the pensions giant Standard Life,
have warned of relocating to England. Jobs would definitely be lost.
The recent steep decline in the pound shows that the financial world
hates the whole idea.
Yet
the economic arguments against independence seem not to be working —
and may even be backfiring. I think I know why. Telling a Scot, “You
can’t do this — if you do, terrible things will happen to you,” has been
a losing negotiating strategy since time immemorial. If you went into a
Glasgow pub tonight and said to the average Glaswegian, “If you down
that beer, you’ll get your head kicked in,” he would react by draining
his glass to the dregs and telling the barman, “Same again.”
So
what kind of appeal can be made to stop the Anglo-Scottish divorce? The
answer may be an appeal to Scotland’s long history of cosmopolitanism.
The
great Scottish philosopher David Hume was contemptuous of what he
called the “vulgar motive of national antipathy.” “I am a Citizen of the
World,” he wrote in 1764. Hume’s account of the consequences of union
with England could scarcely have been more positive: “Public liberty,
with internal peace and order, has flourished almost without
interruption.” His only complaint was the tendency of the English to
treat “with Hatred our just Pretensions to surpass and to govern them.”
(At the time, the English had not quite got used to Scottish prime
ministers, of which there have been 11, by my count.)
Petty
nationalism is just un-Scottish. And today’s Scots should remember the
apposite warning of their countryman the economist Adam Smith about
politicians who promise “some plausible plan of reformation” in order
“to new-model the constitution,” mainly for “their own aggrandizement.”
All over Continental Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries, nationalism
was what ambitious hacks espoused to advance themselves. Scotland was
the exception. May it stay that way.
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