theatlantic | The nuclear agreement highlights the limits of American power—something the president’s opponents won’t accept.
“Mankind faces a crossroads,” declared
Woody Allen. “One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The
other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose
correctly.”
The point is simple: In life, what matters most isn’t how a decision compares to your ideal outcome. It’s how it compares to the alternative at hand.
The same is true for the Iran deal, announced Tuesday between Iran and six world powers. As Congress begins debating the agreement, its opponents have three real alternatives. The first is to kill the deal, and the interim agreement
that preceded it, and do nothing else, which means few restraints on
Iran’s nuclear program. The second is war. But top American and Israeli
officials have warned that military action against Iranian nuclear
facilities could ignite a catastrophic regional conflict and would be
ineffective, if not counterproductive, in delaying Iran’s path to the
bomb. Meir Dagan, who oversaw the Iran file as head of Israel’s external
spy agency, the Mossad, from 2002 to 2011, has said
an attack “would mean regional war, and in that case you would have
given Iran the best possible reason to continue the nuclear program.”
Michael Hayden, who ran the CIA under George W. Bush from 2006 to 2009, has warned
that an attack would “guarantee that which we are trying to prevent: an
Iran that will spare nothing to build a nuclear weapon.”
Implicitly acknowledging this, most
critics of the Iran deal propose a third alternative: increase sanctions
in hopes of forcing Iran to make further concessions. But in the short
term, the third alternative looks a lot like the first. Whatever its deficiencies,
the Iran deal places limits on Iran’s nuclear program and enhances
oversight of it. Walk away from the agreement in hopes of getting
tougher restrictions and you’re guaranteeing, at least for the time
being, that there are barely any restrictions on the program at all.
What’s more, even if Congress passes new sanctions, it’s quite likely
that the overall economic pressure on Iran will go down, not up. Most
major European and Asian countries have closer economic ties to Iran
than does the United States, and thus more domestic pressure to resume
them. These countries have abided by international sanctions against
Iran, to varying degrees, because the Obama administration convinced
their leaders that sanctions were a necessary prelude to a diplomatic
deal. If U.S. officials reject a deal, Iran’s historic trading partners
will not economically injure themselves indefinitely. Sanctions, declared
Britain’s ambassador to the United States in May, have already reached
“the high-water mark,” noting that “you would probably see more
sanctions erosion” if nuclear talks fail. Germany’s ambassador added
that, “If diplomacy fails, then the sanctions regime might unravel.”
The actual alternatives to a deal, in other words, are grim. Which is why critics discuss them as little as possible.
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