insurge | “World3
was a very good, robust system,” he told us. “Some assumptions were
incorrect and misparameterised — for instance, life expectancy is
smaller than assumed, and industrial and service outputs are larger than
assumed. And the model was missing some shock dynamics and feedback
loops.”
The same questioner put his hand up and asked, “Does this mean the original model and its predictions are flawed?”
“I
would say the model was largely correct,” said Jones. “It was right
enough to give a fairly accurate picture of future limits to growth. But
there are some incorrect parameters and gaps.”
The
System Dynamics Model, Jones explained, is designed to overcome the
limitations of World3 by recalibrating the incorrect parameters, adding
new parameters where necessary, and inputting fresh data. There are now
roughly 2,000 parameters in the model, drawing on a database of key
indicators on resources and social measures for 212 countries, from 1995
until today.
Jones’ affirmation of the general accuracy of the limits to growth model was an obvious surprise to some in the room.
The original model forecasted
global ecological and economic collapse by around the middle of the
21st century, due to the convergence of climate change, food and water
scarcity, and the depletion of cheap fossil fuels — which chimes with
both the GRO’s models.
Last year, Dr. Graham Turner updated his CSIRO research at the University of Melbourne, concluding that:
“… the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU [business-as-usual] scenario.”
For
the first time, then, we know that in private, British and US
government agencies are taking seriously longstanding scientific data
showing that a business-as-usual trajectory will likely lead to
civilisational collapse within a few decades — generating multiple
near-term global disruptions along the way.
The question that remains is: what we are going to do about it?
