Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Since THEY Are Just Making Shit Up - What'Choo Think - Was It Subways Or Was It Ubers?


MIT |  The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City

New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmissionvehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evidentthroughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – downby over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doublingtime of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zipcode-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitateddisease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection thanexpress lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergenceof a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmissionroutes out to the periphery of the city.

MarketUrbanism |  Uber Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City 

New York City is an epicenter of the global novel coronavirus pandemic. Through April 16, there were 1,458 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in New York City. Always in the media eye, and larger than any other American city, New York City has become the symbol of the crisis, even as suburban counties nearby suffer higher rates of infection.

In a paper dated April 13, 2020, Jeffrey E. Harris of M.I.T. claims that “New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic.” Oddly, he does not go on to offer evidence in support of this claim in his paper.

Conversely, as I will show, data show that local infections were negatively correlated with subway use, even when controlling for demographic data. Although this correlation study does not establish causation, it more reliably characterizes the spread of the virus than the intuitions and visual inspections that Harris relies on.