NYTimes | Despite the stock market’s swoon
for it, remdesivir probably isn’t our ticket out, she told me. “It’s
not curative,” she said, pointing out that the strongest claims so far
are that it merely shortens the recovery of Covid-19 patients. “We need either a cure or a vaccine.”
But she can’t envision that vaccine anytime in the next year, while Covid-19 will remain a crisis much longer than that.
“I’ve been telling everybody that my event horizon is about 36 months, and that’s my best-case scenario,” she said.
“I’m
quite certain that this is going to go in waves,” she added. “It won’t
be a tsunami that comes across America all at once and then retreats all
at once. It will be micro-waves that shoot up in Des Moines and then in
New Orleans and then in Houston and so on, and it’s going to affect how
people think about all kinds of things.”
They’ll
re-evaluate the importance of travel. They’ll reassess their use of
mass transit. They’ll revisit the need for face-to-face business
meetings. They’ll reappraise having their kids go to college out of
state.
So, I asked, is “back to normal,” a phrase that so many people cling to, a fantasy?
“This
is history right in front of us,” Garrett said. “Did we go ‘back to
normal’ after 9/11? No. We created a whole new normal. We securitized
the United States. We turned into an antiterror state. And it affected
everything. We couldn’t go into a building without showing ID and
walking through a metal detector, and couldn’t get on airplanes the same
way ever again. That’s what’s going to happen with this.”
Not the metal detectors, but a seismic shift in what we expect, in what we endure, in how we adapt.
Maybe in political engagement, too, Garrett said.
If
America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections “with the
wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by
shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out
of our rabbit holes and realize, ‘Oh, my God, it’s not just that
everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can’t make their
maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now
all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private
helicopters are now flying on private personal jets and they own an
island that they go to and they don’t care whether or not our streets
are safe,’ then I think we could have massive political disruption.”
“Just
as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks
like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”
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