Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Ebola's progression in Africa

Datasciencecentral Having found a dataset on Ebola cases, thought of checking it out quickly what the statistics really look like.
The dataset contains 3 countries and within each there are multiple regions.
So just using the high level information at the country level this is what we can see in a simple line chart.
In the below Chart,
The blue line > Total Death cases
The green line > Total Cases
The Orange line > Currently admitted
And the Red line > Total recovered.


umbrarchist said...

More people have been killed in traffic accidents in the US. But that is normal so who cares?

Dale Asberry said...

Do you not see the hockey stick in that curve? That's called exponential (and one even looks geometric) growth. I can't help you if you don't fathom that concept and how a disease growing like that should scare the bejeesus out of you and your'n.

umbrarchist said...

What scares me is bringing people out of the countries affected. But I think I am getting too old to get excited about things I can only talk about. The number of infected may have to reach 50,000 or so for our idiot politicians to get off their brains.

CNu said...

This story puts a human face on it in a way I hadn't heard until this morning. http://www.npr.org/2014/10/14/356045068/u-s-doctor-witnesses-unfolding-ebola-epidemic-at-liberian-hospital

Not being able to relate intellectually or emotionally to what's happening is the pernicious working of the organ kundabuffer. The only thing these humans can imagine vividly enough to matter to them is the simian repetition of base, animal phukkery. To which figments of their fevered little imaginations they enthusiastically masturbate themselves to death. Only by conscious labor and intentional suffering is it even possible for some of these to vividly imagine the suffering of others. That same mechanism would make them aware of the inevitability of their own death and humanize them somewhat. That, is being-duty. It is a function unknown to the majority of these being-less humans.

Dale Asberry said...

Speaking of "intentional suffering", have you tried the prolonged 3 day fast yet?

CNu said...

ta loco? (an I ain't hold my breath for four minutes any more either.....,)

makheru bradley said...

What did JFK Hospital in Monrovia have in common with Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas? "The hospital was ill prepared for handling an Ebola patient."

[Among other things, they said that Duncan "was left for several hours, not in isolation, in an area where other patients were present."

When a nurse supervisor demanded that he be moved into isolation, the supervisor "faced resistance from other hospital authorities," the nurses said. They described a hospital with no clear guidelines in place for handling Ebola patients, where Duncan's lab specimens were sent through the usual hospital tube system "without being specifically sealed and hand-delivered. The result is that the entire tube system, which all the lab systems are sent, was potentially contaminated," they said. "There was no advanced preparedness on what to do with the patient. There was no protocol; there was no system. The nurses were asked to call the infectious disease department" if they had questions, they said.

The nurses said they were essentially left to figure things out for themselves as they dealt with "copious amounts" of body fluids from Duncan while wearing gloves with no wrist tapes, gowns that did not cover their necks, and no surgical booties. Protective gear eventually arrived, but not until three days after Duncan's admission to the hospital, they said.]

The patient in Monrovia was already full-blown; Duncan apparently wasn't, but what about the content of the virus in his bodily fluids on that first day in ER. Let's say he was sweating when he filled out paperwork; fluids get on the ink-pen; the registrar touches that pen, and a keyboard. Someone else touches that same keyboard. He apparently arrived on a gurney. Sometimes ER patients are left on a gurney in the ER until a room becomes available, but the story says, "he sat for 'several hours' in a room with other patients." So there sweat on the seat which other people sit in. There you have the makings of a fiasco in Dallas, no fruit bats or bushmeat involved.

Dale Asberry said...

Dead serious. I've done the 3-day fast once each month for the last four months.

Here's a presentation I gave to the local quantified self group: Life in the Fast Lane

CNu said...

lol, and that's with us all keeping a straight face about the party line that the virus is not aerially transmissable...., on my bus ride into work this morning, I made the mistake of sharing with the driver the bad news about nurse number two in Dallas. Good catholic brother, very conservative, typically pretty quiet. Man oh man..., this cat launched into a tirade about the drivers not being allowed to wear face masks and having to interface with a rude and nasty public with no concept of basic consideration for others. He was still holding forth passionately and at high volume when I got off the bus fifteen minutes later.

CNu said...

Did you do this to yourself on regular intervals, i.e., broken up by the same number of weeks each month? What if any cumulative effects/benefits have you obtained - not theoretical mind you - but actual benefits you can either measure or feel?

ken said...

"lol, and that's with us all keeping a straight face about the party line that the virus is not aerially transmissable"

Or that it is only contagious when the host is showing symptoms. They really don't know either.

Dale Asberry said...

I've done it starting the first Sunday of each month so that I'd remember without needing a reminder. 3 of the fasts had 4 weeks and one had 5 weeks separating. I'm not aware of any cumulative beneftis as of yet. But each fast does have it's benefits which you won't understand until you've experienced it -- which you can feel quite distinctly.

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