NYTimes | Over
time it has become clear to me that security decisions in the Trump
administration follow a certain pattern. Discussion seems to start with a
presidential statement or tweet. Then follows a large-scale effort to
inform the president, to impress upon him the complexity of an issue, to
review the relevant history, to surface more factors bearing on the
problem, to raise second- and third-order consequences and to explore
subsequent moves.
It’s not easy. The
president by all accounts is not a patient man. According to The
Washington Post, one Trump confidant called him “the two-minute man”
with “patience for a half page.” He insists on five-page or shorter
intelligence briefs, rather than the 60 pages we typically gave previous
presidents. There is something inherently disturbing in that. There are
some problems that cannot be simplified.
Sometimes, almost magically, he gets it right. The president’s speech
last August on Afghanistan was worth listening to, clearly the product
of the traditional deliberative process where intelligence sets the
picture based on the best available information, and then security
agencies weigh in with views that are adjudicated by the National
Security Council.
But the Afghan
experience has been the exception. The president continues to attack the
Iranian nuclear deal and is likely to end it even in the face of
intelligence that Iran has not committed a material breach of the
compact, that the deal makes it more difficult for Iran to build a
weapon and that it gives us visibility into its nuclear program.
Then there is Russia. The president only recently and grudgingly agreed to impose sanctions
on Russians believed to have interfered in the American election, and
he continues to characterize the investigation as a “witch hunt” while
relentlessly attacking agencies of his own administration.
He
humiliated the attorney general, undercut his national security adviser
and engaged in personal vendettas against senior F.B.I. officials.
A
few months after Mr. Trump’s inauguration, I got a call from a
colleague who thought he might be on a very short list for a very senior
position. He asked my opinion. I told him that three months earlier I
would have talked to him about his duty to serve. Now I was telling him
to say no. “You’re a young man,” I said. “Don’t put yourself at risk for
the future. You have a lot to offer. Someday.”
When
asked for counsel these days by officers who are already in government,
especially more junior ones, I remind them of their duty to help the
president succeed. But then I add: “Protect yourself. Take notes and
save them. And above all, protect the institution. America still needs
it.”
That
creates a deeper dilemma. Intelligence becomes a feeble academic
exercise if it is not relevant and useful. It always has to adapt to the
idiosyncrasies, learning style, policies and priorities of any
president to preserve its relevance and utility. But there have to be
limits. History — and the next president — will judge American
intelligence, and if it is found to have been too accommodating to this
or any other president, it will be disastrous for the community.
These
are truly uncharted waters for the country. We have in the past argued
over the values to be applied to objective reality, or occasionally over
what constituted objective reality, but never the existence or
relevance of objective reality itself.
In
this post-truth world, intelligence agencies are in the bunker with
some unlikely mates: journalism, academia, the courts, law enforcement
and science — all of which, like intelligence gathering, are
evidence-based. Intelligence shares a broader duty with these other
truth-tellers to preserve the commitment and ability of our society to
base important decisions on our best judgment of what constitutes
objective reality.
The historian
Timothy Snyder stresses the importance of reality and truth in his
cautionary pamphlet, “On Tyranny.” “To abandon facts,” he writes, “is to
abandon freedom. If nothing is true, then no one can criticize power
because there is no basis upon which to do so.” He then chillingly
observes, “Post-truth is pre-fascism.”
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