Why did the U.S. military authorize, aid, and abet Pelosi's little junket to Taiwan?
1. Pelosi traveled on a military jet flown by military pilots.
2. Military aircraft flown by military pilots only fly with military orders.
3, Military orders are signed by military officials in a chain of command.
4. The Commander in Chief of the Military is Brandon Shartypants and, without the need to revoke her passport, Brandon could simply issue an order and send it down the chain of command. One phone call and done!
5. Notwithstanding the false claims that the administration has done what they can to stop her but can’t, the Chinese know all the above and see this is another pack of lies from the US. As such it is evidence that this is a provocation sanctioned the President (Commander in Chief).
6.Since this is a military-sanctioned trip the Chinese believe it is an unreasonable and unnecessary provocation not to mention an insult to their intelligence.
7. If Pelosi were sincere in her desire to merely visit and meet with people in her civilian capacity, and flew on an airplane flown by any of the various civilian airlines, nothing would made of it.
8. Because the Chinese (and the Russians) are certain that the US administration is incapable of telling the truth and always and everywhere has ulterior motives, they will not just sit idly by as the incident unfolds.
China is working to grow its naval strength by the day, but they are nowhere near the operational efficiency of the US Navy. In particular, they have no response to US attack submarine dominance.
The Chinese strategy is to quickly roll out new weapons and make them effective in operation – this can take many years to get right, and essentially means the first block of any new weapon is little more than a prototype. The Chinese are at least a decade away from being able to decisively counter a determined US naval attack or defence if Taiwan is prepared to fight.
The history of naval/air war is very straightforward and simple. The winner is always the country that strikes first (the Pacific War being a rare exception, but there are of course reasons). That way, you get to wipe out the most effective ships/air fields of your enemy in your first blow.
If China wishes to grab Taiwan militarily, then it has to take the initiative. But right now, the US/Taiwan is on high alert to blunt any frontal assault. Taiwan will have sealed its bunkers and the US will have a range of attack submarines in place.
Now is literally the worst possible time to provoke a direct conflict, and no doubt this is what Xi has been told by his military advisors. They should have played things down, and picked a moment of their own choosing. Whatever happens now – and I think war is still a very strong possibility – China has lost the initiative and this is usually fatal when it comes to non-land based warfare.
There are a decent number of attack (SSN) and missile (SSBN) submarines currently around China and the Chinese government knows this reality. There are always SSBNs near China (being the most important part of the nuclear triad), but I would not be surprised if the overall submarine count was increased in anticipation of a possible confrontation for this visit.
Besides Mk 48 torpedoes (still quite dangerous to surface ships), these submarines can also launch sea-skimming anti-ship missiles (UGM-84 Harpoons) from their torpedo tubes. Whatever one can say about some of the other weapon systems the US has, sea-skimmers like the Harpoon are very effective.
These submarines, among the most capable in the world, greatly limit China’s freedom to adopt military options. China probably has limited knowledge of the location of these boats, creating a tactical advantage for defense. However, since the Chinese government does know these submarines are out there, I can only imagine the Chinese public’s sentiment if a grand amphibious assault were shredded en route to Taiwan.
(Taiwan itself also has similar anti-ship missiles and these can cover much of the distance between the island and the mainland, also further complicating a Chinese amphibious assault.)
In any case, because submarines probably were deployed ahead of time, it may be that China never really had a politically viable military option.
0 comments:
Post a Comment