Tuesday, September 22, 2020

What Is "The Science" Telling Us About Covid Morbidity?



CDC USA Stats: 2/1/2020 to 9/16/2020 - 7 months of data on 6,649,000 cases.

Note that these numbers are a snapshot in time and literally change by the minute as people catch and survive/die from Covid-19. The best use of these numbers is to show us the trend and provide a statistical answer to the question "what's happened so far?'.

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Comorbidity Deaths = 94% of deaths.
- Covid-19 >AND< some other serious health issue were recorded on the death certificate: Covid-19 was present and contributed to the death.
Covid-19 Deaths = 6% of deaths
- Covid-19 was recorded on the death certificate as the sole cause of death...Covid-19 killed the person.

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USA “odds of dying” from Covid-19 vs. 2018/19 common flu
Age 14 and younger :
>1 in 167,715 chance of dying from the common flu (ages 0 to 17)
>1 in 1,010,223 chance of a Comorbidity death
>1 in 15,826,823 chance of a Covid-19 death
Age 15 to 24 :
>1 in 60,687 chance of dying from the common flu (ages 18 to 49)
>1 in 134,506 chance of a Comorbidity death
>1 in 2,107,257 chance of a Covid-19 death

Age 25 to 44:
>1 in 60,687 chance of dying from the common flu (ages 18 to 49)
>1 in 18,059 chance of a Comorbidity death
>1 in 282,927 chance of a Covid-19 death

Age 45 to 64:
>1 in 10,943 chance of dying from the common flu (ages 50 to 64)
>1 in 2,672 chance of a Comorbidity death
>1 in 41,862 chance of a Covid-19 death

Age 65 to 84:
>1 in 2,066 chance of dying from the common flu (age 65 plus)
>1 in 572 chance of a Comorbidity death
>1 in 8,956 chance of a Covid-19 death
Age 85 and older:
>1 in 2,066 chance of dying from the common flu (age 65 plus)
>1 in 111 chance of a Comorbidity death
>1 in 1,738 chance of a Covid-19 death
What is “The Science” telling us?
If you have a serious preexisting condition, Covid-19 is a threat to your life; and the older you are, the more extreme the threat.
If you do not have a serious preexisting condition, Covid-19 is less deadly than the common flu; exception being age 85 plus.
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Disclaimer:
I am not a statistician, I only play one on the internet. 

If statistics is your line of work... please check my work and report back.