NewYorker | In 2010, Marc Estrin, a novelist and far-left activist from Vermont,
found an online version of a paper by Cass Sunstein, a professor at
Harvard Law School and the most frequently cited legal scholar in the
world. The paper, called “Conspiracy Theories,” was first published in
2008, in a small academic journal called the Journal of Political Philosophy. In it, Sunstein and his
Harvard colleague Adrian Vermeule attempted to explain how conspiracy
theories spread, especially online. At one point, they made a radical
proposal: “Our main policy claim here is that government should engage
in cognitive infiltration of the groups that produce conspiracy
theories.” The authors’ primary example of a conspiracy theory was the
belief that 9/11 was an inside job; they defined “cognitive
infiltration” as a program “whereby government agents or their allies
(acting either virtually or in real space, and either openly or
anonymously) will undermine the crippled epistemology of believers by
planting doubts about the theories and stylized facts that circulate
within such groups.”
Nowhere in the final
version of the paper did Sunstein and Vermeule state the obvious fact
that a government ban on conspiracy theories would be unconstitutional
and possibly dangerous. (In a draft that was posted online, which
remains more widely read, they emphasized that censorship is
“inconsistent with principles of freedom of expression,” although they
“could imagine circumstances in which a conspiracy theory became so
pervasive, and so dangerous, that censorship would be thinkable.”)* “I
was interested in the
mechanisms by which information, whether true or false, gets passed
along and amplified,” Sunstein told me recently. “I wanted to know how
extremists come to believe the warped things they believe, and, to a
lesser extent, what might be done to interrupt their radicalization. But
I suppose my writing wasn’t very clear.”
Sunstein has studied the spread of information since the mid-nineties,
when he co-wrote a series of law-review articles about “cascade
theory”—a model describing how opinions travel across juries, markets,
and subcultures. He was particularly interested in what he called the
Law of Group Polarization: how ideologically homogenous groups can
become “breeding grounds for unjustified extremism, even fanaticism.” In
2001, his first book on political polarization on the Internet,
“Republic.com,” warned that, even when people have access to a range of
robust and challenging views, many will favor information that confirms
what they already believe. He updated the book in 2007, as “Republic.com
2.0: Revenge of the Blogs,” and again this year, as “#Republic: Divided
Democracy in the Age of Social Media.” When he wrote “Republic.com,”
social media didn’t really exist; when he wrote “Republic.com 2.0,”
social media’s impact was so negligible that he could essentially ignore
it; in “#Republic,” he argues that services such as Facebook comprise
the contemporary agora, and that their personalized algorithms will
make it ever more difficult for Americans to understand their
fellow-citizens.
In the endless debates about what constitutes “fake news,” we tend to
invoke clear cases of unfounded rumor or outright deceit (“Melania has a
body double,” or “President Trump saves two cats from drowning after
Hurricane Harvey”). More prevalent, and more bewildering, are the
ambiguous cases—a subtly altered photograph, an accurate but misleading
statistic, a tendentious connection among disparate dots. Between the
publication of “Republic.com 2.0” and “#Republic,” Sunstein became a
target of the same online rumor mill he’d been studying from a distance,
and many of the conspiracy theories about “Conspiracy Theories” fell
into this gray area—overheated, but not wholly made up. “If you had told
me that this obscure paper would ever become such a publicly visible and
objectionable thing, I would have thought it more likely that Martians
had just landed in Times Square,” Sunstein said. “In hindsight, though,
I suppose it’s sort of appropriate that I got caught up in the
mechanisms I was writing about.”
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