sonar21 | In the face of Western reports that Russia is on its heels and retreating, the facts on the ground tell a different story. For starters, Russian allies with embassies still operating in Kiev are shutting down and ordering their personnel to leave Ukraine. This includes China, Tajikistan, Krygyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkenistan,Serbia, Belarus, India and Egypt. Note that these embassies have remained open during the last seven months of the war with Russia. The decisions to cutback or cease operations is one indicator that these countries expect a major escalation in the war on the part of Russia in the near future.
Another piece of evidence that implies Russia is beefing up for a new offensive comes via Belarus. Russia is moving a large number of trucks, armored personnel carriers and tanks to Belarus.
While Russia is beefing up its forces in Belarus, the Supreme Russian Commander for military operations in Ukraine, General Surovikin, made the following comment in recent days:
I don’t want to sacrifice the lives of the Russian soldiers in a partisan war of hoards of fanatics armed by NATO.
We’ve got enough power and technical means to lead Ukraine to total capitulation.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/11836
In other words, the General, knowing the capability of the forces under his command and knowing the missions he and his staff are planning for them, is confident he has the means to force the surrender of Ukraine. No mention of negotiations. The word, “capitulation” is not ambiguous in its meaning.
There is another possibility to entertain–this is an elaborate feint by Russia designed to force Ukraine to deploy already weakened forces to the northern border to defend against a possible invasion from the north. This will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Ukraine to send reinforcements to the south in a timely manner if Russia decides to launch an offensive to clear out the Donetsk Republic or attack Nikolayev.
All of this movement on the ground is taking place against developing political chaso in the West. The United States, under the leadership of the demented Joe Biden, has embarked on a foreign policy apparently designed to anger and offend ostensible allies. The Saudis find themselves being treated like lepers. According to Reuters:
US President Joe Biden will act “methodically” in deciding how to respond to Saudi Arabia due to oil production cuts, but options include changes in US security assistance, reports Reuters the words of White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. . . .
At the same time, the tension between the countries is growing strongly. Biden no longer intends to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-will-act-methodically-re-evaluating-us-saudi-relationship-sullivan-2022-10-16/
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