Normally frozen pipes are a not-too-costly problem, but that's for a single site. Widespread burst pipes will put pressure on supplies and professionals. And remember Ukraine’s GDP contraction is depression-level, so it’s not as if there will be a lot of money around to fix things. Don’t think of frozen pipes on a per building level. Consider instead the effect of widespread leaks in a water supply system. As long as the pipes stay frozen, the system will continue to operate normally as the ice stops leakage. Once the ice melts from all of the small leaks, the water pressure of the system can plummet to the point where it runs dry, burns out pumping systems, draws non-potable fluids into the system, can render disinfecting systems inoperable, or makes fire suppression impossible. Further, rapid pressure changes in a piped system can create more breaks through water hammer.
Now imagine trying to fix multiple large pumps, motors, valves, etc. given existing supply chain issues, wartime conditions, and fuel problems. It’s a much bigger problem than it appears.
There is no warehouse full of large power transformers. Lead times for new builds is quite long. You can't manufacture transformers just anywhere - and - the skilled trades needed to do so are not abundant. I speak from personal experience of no electricity due to total grid failure; It means that the most blasé is surprisingly effected
1. Sliding doors for shops cease to operate, you cannot even get inside; dheckouts no longer work
2. ATMs and credit card payments stop.
3. All cold/chilled/frozen food in shops has to be destroyed
4. Petrol pumps no longer work
5. Gas boilers no longer work
6. Central heating pumps no longer work
7. Domestic fridges and freezers need to emptied and the contents buried asap
8. Water pressure drops to zero
9. Toilets cannot be flushed
10. No internet, no Mobile phones once back-up power at the towers is exhausted
11. Special local facilities with generators are literally vital for those with certain medical conditions
12. Long dark, hungry evenings with nothing to do except burn wood, if you can get it.
13. The good news however; selfie sticks and smart phone cameras can no longer be recharged...
Winter is coming within mere weeks and no matter what else, surely the burden of finding warmth and power in Ukraine is soon to become intolerable. A human catastrophe is rising for certain. The question is, what does the West do now when Putin and Russia again offer to talk?
Shutting off the power in the rump Ukrainian state will cause a mass exodus to flee for refuge to Poland and Germany, this will be a disaster unparalleled in recent European history. Just the attendant collapse in telecommunications will make the place a madhouse. You can well imagine the rest. Already there are queues for water in Nikolaev, and who knows where else. How does queueing for water, if there is any, in temperatures of minus-20C to minus-40C sound?
Poland and Germany absorbing the cold freezing hungry Ukraine refugees sounds like a non-starter despite their energetic support to date. Of course the Ukrainians will need to be told how to shower by the Germans so as to save fuel.
Lots of commentators believe the time for talking is over, at least until Odessa is taken. They may be right. But Putin has been steadily measured and deliberate throughout, ratcheting up the pain, and that ratcheting is going to rise very very fast with the cold weather and lack of power. What happens when millions of people are freezing to death at the Polish border as US citizens go to the polls in November? Will Biden and Blinken and Nuland try to bring an anti-Russia hysteria into the polling booth, nuclear war be damned? Or will people begin to see the huge risks facing us all and publicly demand a stop to further madness?