readingjunkie | Here’s the thing, as correctly observed by CNN, the Ukrainian strategy of holing up in densely populated cities and using human shields is very effective. There is also enough passive and sometimes even active loyalty from the civilian population for this strategy to work without significant backlash. So why are Ukrainians suddenly doing the opposite? Why not get out of the kill zone in the Donets basin and retreat to more defensible positions? Furthermore, why is the West enabling this strategy by funneling billions of dollars of equipment into a meat grinder where most of it is just destroyed immediately? Wouldn’t it make a lot more sense to retreat, even if this means abandoning their equipment?
Refusing to capitulate to Russia is morally indefensible, but from a pragmatic point of view, it would make sense, if there was a chance of the situation improving. If the Ukrainian army were to escape from Donbass, that would presumably give the Zelensky government more bargaining power at the negotiation table. But instead they’re sitting in their fortifications and being destroyed wholesale.
Without artillery support in good quantity the Ukrainian military has no chance to hold the line and to stop Russian moves. Any unit which attempts is hold the line will simply be mauled by Russian artillery until it is no longer able to fight. That is happening now. As the Ukrainians have orders not to leave or move their defense lines they either have to give up or die defending them.
By giving ‘hold the line’ orders the Ukrainian leadership is contributing to the Russian demilitarization of the Ukraine.
It is the ‘west’ that is preventing Zelensky from suing for peace.
The ‘west’ has fallen for its own propaganda. It believes that the Russian troops near Kiev were defeated by Ukrainian forces. In reality they retreated in good order after the diversion they constituted was no longer needed. The ‘western’ fairytale that they were ‘defeated’ gave hope that Russia could be ‘weakened’, as the U.S. Secretary of State said.
The war will hardly ‘weaken’ Russia. But the war will destroy the Ukrainian military and many, many of its men.
So no matter which way you look at this situation, it seems unsustainable, both for Ukraine and for NATO. While the writers at Moon of Alabama are probably correct that there is downward pressure on Kiev to keep their forces committed in Donbass, there is another possible explanation. Here’s my theory on what is happening.
Russia is using their contract soldiers, and spent years rotating them all through large-scale training exercises, including the exercise they just finished in February. Thanks to this, they rolled into this war with a warm start, as opposed to a cold one. They can perform adequately on a strategic and operational level. Tactical inadequacies in the face of a real-life enemy could be quickly corrected.
As for the Ukrainian side, it looks like they are a NATO-quality force rebuilt from the ground up after their serious failures in 2014-15. As individuals and small units, they can hold their own against their Russian and often win, especially with the added advantage of being on the defensive. The problem is that so far they have never demonstrated the ability to push back Russian forces and retake ground. And no, recapturing terrain that the enemy voluntarily abandoned doesn’t count. Ukrainians recapturing suburbs around Kiev was a victory in the same sense as water filling a bowl. Wars are won by shaping the battlefield to your advantage and forcing the enemy to conform to it. Flowing into channels the enemy created for you is the opposite of winning.
Eight years was enough time to build a huge army almost from scratch, but it was not enough time to properly train them to function at anything higher than a battalion level, and I think we are seeing that deficiency play out in Donbass. In previous months they couldn’t maneuver to exploit Russian mistakes and tactical defeats, and now they can’t maneuver to escape destruction. Aside from losing a huge number of their vehicles, they don’t have the doctrine and cohesion to move 40-100 thousand men to safety.
The logistical complexity of uprooting and moving that many people is enormous and there is also the morale factor. Standing your ground is one thing, but if these soldiers moved westward in a clear retreat, there would be an overwhelming urge to desert and go home, and that’s what many of them would probably do.
Ukrainians can’t capitulate, they can’t retreat, so all they can do is stay where they are and die. Rather than conserve their resources, Kiev is doing the opposite and sending a continuous stream of additional men and equipment to be destroyed in the Donbass pocket.
0 comments:
Post a Comment