bloomberg | Two months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin convened an extraordinary conclave of allies and partners at the U.S. military base in Ramstein, Germany. They were there to establish a wartime coalition whose announced aim, at the time, was to protect Ukraine from further Russian aggression.
The participants were mostly members of the NATO alliance. They were joined by a dozen or so pro-U.S. nations. Among them was Israel, a country that began the war with the hope of remaining neutral but has been reluctantly, incrementally and inexorably drawn toward the American side. Israel’s presence at the conference signaled that it was now all in.
The question is, all in on what? Israel accepted the invitation assuming that it would be asked to play a small part in arming Ukraine with advanced weapons that would enable Kyiv to hold off and push back the invaders. But after the conference, Austin told journalists that the goal of the Ramstein alliance would be to weaken Russia in a way that would prevent it from using military force against its neighbors. In other words, to reduce Russia from a superpower to a more minor status. The Ramstein Group would be meeting once a month, moreover, a sign America is anticipating a long war.
Russia replied by signaling that it wouldn’t accept the sort of total defeat that the U.S. and its partners had in mind. Putin made it clear that Russia would, if necessary, use nuclear weapons to prevent such an outcome.
The government of Israel didn’t tell the public in advance that it had decided to join a wartime alliance that in theory could lead to a nuclear war. And it has yet to react to the Russian threat. But going to Ramstein was a defining decision. There is no off-ramp.
Military alliances are new to Israel. In the 1991 Gulf War its efforts to join the U.S.-led coalition were rebuffed by Arab members. It isn’t a NATO nation, which means that it has no mutual security guarantee. It also has no formal defense treaty with the U.S. Israel is a country accustomed to fighting neighborhood battles on its own. Signing up for a prolonged conflict against Russia in Ukraine, perhaps a wider war in Europe or even Armageddon isn’t something Israel appears to have thought about deeply.
Most of the Ramstein countries don’t have Russian troops on their borders. Israel does, in Syria. In recent years, Israel and Russia have coordinated military efforts that allowed Israel to wage a shadow war against Iran and its proxies. An antagonized Russia will be much less likely to prevent Iran from supplying its proxy army in Lebanon or moving its own Islamic Republic army closer to Israel’s frontier. It’s clear that ties between Russia and Israel are already fraying. On Monday, Israel denounced recent comments by Russia’s foreign minister saying he believed Hitler had Jewish roots.
As the war in Ukraine evolves, Jerusalem will do what Washington asks, up to clear red lines. No presently conceivable Israeli government would send large combat forces to fight in Ukraine. There is also little chance Israel will ship heavy military gear there. NATO countries have more than enough advanced weapons to go around, especially now that the U.S. is ramping up domestic arms production. Israel also will refrain from sharing its closely held military secrets with coalition allies (although there are very few that the U.S. isn’t privy to).
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