NYTimes | A
review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his
supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting
records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad,
demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around
personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political
divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the
consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival
candidates.
In
poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite
having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate
some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he
had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among
moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and
anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and
less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters,
even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of
voting.
The
unusual character of Mr. Trump’s coalition by no means guarantees his
campaign will survive until next year’s primaries, let alone beyond. The
diversity of his coalition could even be its undoing, if his previous
support for liberal policies and donations to Democrats, for example,
undermine his support among conservatives. And in the end, the polling
suggests, Mr. Trump will run into a wall: Most Republicans do not
support his candidacy and seem unlikely ever to do so. Even now, more
say they definitely would not vote for him than say they support him.
But the breadth of Mr. Trump’s coalition
is surprising at a time of religious, ideological and geographic
divisions in the Republican Party. It suggests he has the potential to
outdo the flash-in-the-pan candidacies that roiled the last few
Republican nominating contests. And it hints at the problem facing his
competitors and the growing pressure on them to confront him, as
several, like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, are starting to do.
His
support is not tethered to a single issue or sentiment: immigration,
economic anxiety or an anti-establishment mood. Those factors may have
created conditions for his candidacy to thrive, but his personality,
celebrity and boldness, not merely his populism and policy stances, have
let him take advantage of them.
Tellingly,
when asked to explain support for Mr. Trump in their own words, voters
of varying backgrounds used much the same language, calling him “ballsy”
and saying they admired that he “tells it like it is” and relished how
he “isn’t politically correct.”
Trumpism, the data and interviews suggest, is an attitude, not an ideology.
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