Mrs Surovikin: Well Honey. How Was Your First Day At Work?

Gen Surovikin: I oversaw the crippling of the Ukrainian electrical distribution and overran three cities.

Mrs Surovikin: that's nice honey.

Why don't you grab a cold one out of the fridge-dinner will be ready in 20 minutes.

The appointment of Commander of Aerospace Forces General Sergei Surovikin (aka “Severoviy”) as commander of the united group of troops has already borne serious fruit. Good management requires neither a ‘jack-of-all-trades’ (a military man, who emerged from civilian ranks) nor a ‘stormtrooper’ in the vanguard of an offensive – everyone has his tasks, and there is no need to put them in the wrong places. What is needed is a combat general who knows the specifics of combined arms combat as well as working with the various branches of troops to establish quality interaction.

As a result, on the first day of the new commander-in-chief:

Today's targeting depended upon precise latitude/longitude measurements, from orbit. Much cheaper to take measurements from imagery at 500 miles altitude than to send covert people with Garmin handhelds, waiting to be discovered, searched, and arrested.

Spacecraft imaging decides wars.

Over 200 cruise missile hits in Ukraine, which is quite a record. (By the way, the sorties are the same Kalibres that by all laws of military propaganda Russia should have run out of.)
️Massive power cuts in almost all of Ukraine
️Serious water supply outages
️Damage to critical wartime infrastructure – primarily repair factories where Ukrainian equipment was being   repaired
️Fuel and supply disruptions in virtually every region

Transport collapse at Ukrzaliznytsia: trains are stopped, and some routes are switched to diesel – which naturally leads to the aggravation of the fuel situation
️Ukrainian Security Service building struck, head of Cyber Police of Ukraine department Yuriy Zaskoka, who was responsible for coordinated telegram bot attacks, eliminated

It’s coming down hard. It’s going to continue to rain.

By evening, Ukraine is once again covered in air-raid alarms. The city goes to sleep – the Kalibres wake up.

Taken down the Starlink system (so Ukrainians can no longer communicate at the front lines properly), The vast majority of trains that are electric won't run, and the remainder will help use up the diesel supplies and therefore the troop and equipment transportation abilities, and display to the Ukrainian population how their leaders are completely useless in the face of serious attack.

This needs to be not just a "retaliatory warning" but a continuing process for the next days and weeks, grinding down the Ukrainians as the cold weather and rain set in. Together with the continued military grinding in Bakhmut etc. to make Ukrainian soldiers lives really awful (plus propaganda wins as Bakhmut etc. taken). Then major attacks in late November as the ground freezes, the leaves are gone and the skies clear. The job needs to get finished (the south and east taken, including Odessa) before the Spring arrives and while Europe sits freezing with power blackouts.

Then Europe can look forward to the next year of horrendous energy prices, a following winter with much lower levels of gas reserves, a deep recession and an extremely unruly population, plus a hopeless position in Ukraine. Ukraine without the Black Sea coast and Odessa is a greatly degraded position for the US and NATO, plus there will be many, many more millions of Ukrainians flowing across the Polish border into Europe.

P.S. The taking out of the electricity supply to the manufacturer of the parts required for the French nuclear power station maintenance was pure genius. So now many of those power stations won't be running at full tilt to keep French electricity prices down during the winter. 

 

And the most important thing in this whole story is that the Ukrainian authorities have warned of the consequences, of not playing with fire and poking a stick in the den. Back in the summer, Dmitriy Medvedev promised that in the event of a strike on Crimea, the Ukrainians would face “Judgment Day”. Well, 10.10.2022 was that day for the Ukrainians.

 

How Can A Humiliated Western Empire Possibly Raise The Stakes Short Of Going Nuclear?

thecradle  |  In the end, Terror on the Bridge yielded a short, Pyrrhic PR victory – duly celebrated across the collective West – with negligible practical success: transfer of Russian military cargo by railway resumed in roughly 14 hours.

And that brings us to the key information in the Russian intel source assessment: the whodunnit.

It was a plan by the British MI6, says this source, without offering further details. Which, he elaborates, Russian intel, for a number of reasons, is shadow-playing as “foreign special services.”

It’s quite telling that the Americans rushed to establish plausible deniability. The proverbial “Ukrainian government official” told CIA mouthpiece The Washington Post that the SBU did it. That was a straight confirmation of an Ukrainska Pravda report based on an “unidentified law enforcement official.”

The perfect red line trifecta

Already, over the weekend, it was clear the ultimate red line had been crossed. Russian public opinion and media were furious. For all its status as an engineering marvel, Krymsky Most represents not only critical infrastructure; it is the visual symbol of the return of Crimea to Russia.

Moreover, this was a personal terror attack on Putin and the whole Russian security apparatus.

So we had, in sequence, Ukrainian terrorists blowing up Darya Dugina’s car in a Moscow suburb (they admitted it); US/UK special forces (partially) blowing Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 (they admitted and then retracted); and the terror attack on Krymsky Most  (once again: admitted then retracted).

Not to mention the shelling of Russian villages in Belgorod, NATO supplying long-range weapons to Kiev, and the routine execution of Russian soldiers.

Darya Dugina, Nord Streams and Crimea Bridge make it an Act of War trifecta. So this time the response was inevitable – not even waiting for the first meeting since February of the Russian Security Council scheduled for the afternoon of 10 October.

Moscow launched the first wave of a Russian Shock’n Awe without even changing the status of the Special Military Operation (SMO) to Counter-Terrorist Operation (CTO), with all its serious military/legal implications.

After all, even before the UN Security Council meeting, Russian public opinion was massively behind taking the gloves off. Putin had not even scheduled bilateral meetings with any of the members. Diplomatic sources hint that the decision to let the hammer come down had already been taken over the weekend.

Shock’n Awe did not wait for the announcement of an ultimatum to Ukraine (that may come in a few days); an official declaration of war (not necessary); or even announcing which ‘”decision-making centers” in Ukraine would be hit.

The lightning strike de facto metastasizing of SMO into CTO means that the regime in Kiev and those supporting it are now considered as legitimate targets, just like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra during the Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) in Syria.

And the change of status – now this is a real war on terror – means that terminating all strands of terrorism, physical, cultural, ideological, are the absolute priority, and not the safety of Ukrainian civilians. During the SMO, safety of civilians was paramount. Even the UN has been forced to admit that in over seven months of SMO the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine has been relatively low.

Enter ‘Commander Armageddon’

The face of Russian Shock’n Awe is Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin: the new commander-in-chief of the now totally centralized SMO/CTO.

The UK Instigated Bombing Of The Kerch Bridge And Severoviy's Foot In Ukraine's Ass

thegrayzone  |  At dawn on October 8th, an incendiary attack damaged the Kerch Bridge. A truck exploded, setting two oil tankers ablaze, causing two Crimea-bound spans of the roadway to collapse into the sea below, and killing three. 

While the affected section was quickly repaired and traffic resumed the next day, Western media has celebrated the incident as the latest Russian embarrassment and failure in the conflict with Ukraine. In some cases, journalists openly cheered and joked about what could plausibly be categorized as a war crime that claimed civilian lives.

The suicide strike targeted a connecting structure between Crimea and mainland Russia constructed at a cost of $4 billion, and whose opening provided a major public relations victory for the Kremlin, reinforcing Moscow’s renewed control of the majority Russian-speaking territory.

Upon its unveiling in May 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked:

“In different historical epochs, even under the tsar priests, people dreamed of building this bridge. Then they returned to this in the 1930s, the 40s, the 50s. And finally, thanks to your work and your talent, the miracle has happened.”

The Bridge has been heavily defended since February 24th, not least because it serves as a major transport route for military equipment to Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Russia has previously promised major reprisals in response to any strike on the structure. 

Following the attack, widespread euphoria erupted among Ukrainians, Ukrainian authorities, and Ukraine supporters on social media. Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, posted a video of the burning bridge alongside a black-and-white clip of Marilyn Monroe singing Happy Birthday, Mr. President — a reference to Putin turning 70 the same day.

Furthermore, Ukrainian media has reported via an anonymous source “in law enforcement agencies” that the attack was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine. Yet, high-ranking Ukrainian officials, including chief presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, are now backtracking, claiming instead that the incident was a Russian false flag. 

Such allegations have become commonplace in the wake of incidents in which Ukrainian – or Western – culpability seems likely or indeed certain, such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosions.

No Electricity = Not Enough Heat = Burst Pipes = Millions Of Refugees

Normally frozen pipes are a not-too-costly problem, but that's for a single site. Widespread burst pipes will put pressure on supplies and professionals. And remember Ukraine’s GDP contraction is depression-level, so it’s not as if there will be a lot of money around to fix things. Don’t think of frozen pipes on a per building level. Consider instead the effect of widespread leaks in a water supply system. As long as the pipes stay frozen, the system will continue to operate normally as the ice stops leakage. Once the ice melts from all of the small leaks, the water pressure of the system can plummet to the point where it runs dry, burns out pumping systems, draws non-potable fluids into the system, can render disinfecting systems inoperable, or makes fire suppression impossible. Further, rapid pressure changes in a piped system can create more breaks through water hammer.

Now imagine trying to fix multiple large pumps, motors, valves, etc. given existing supply chain issues, wartime conditions, and fuel problems. It’s a much bigger problem than it appears.

There is no warehouse full of large power transformers. Lead times for new builds is quite long. You can't manufacture transformers just anywhere - and - the skilled trades needed to do so are not abundant.  I speak from personal experience of no electricity due to total grid failure; It means that the most blasé is surprisingly effected

1. Sliding doors for shops cease to operate, you cannot even get inside; dheckouts no longer work
2. ATMs and credit card payments stop.
3. All cold/chilled/frozen food in shops has to be destroyed
4. Petrol pumps no longer work
5. Gas boilers no longer work
6. Central heating pumps no longer work
7. Domestic fridges and freezers need to emptied and the contents buried asap
8. Water pressure drops to zero
9. Toilets cannot be flushed
10. No internet, no Mobile phones once back-up power at the towers is exhausted
11. Special local facilities with generators are literally vital for those with certain medical conditions
12. Long dark, hungry evenings with nothing to do except burn wood, if you can get it.

13. The good news however; selfie sticks and smart phone cameras can no longer be recharged...

Winter is coming within mere weeks and no matter what else, surely the burden of finding warmth and power in Ukraine is soon to become intolerable. A human catastrophe is rising for certain. The question is, what does the West do now when Putin and Russia again offer to talk? 

Shutting off the power in the rump Ukrainian state will cause a mass exodus to flee for refuge to Poland and Germany, this will be a disaster unparalleled in recent European history. Just the attendant collapse in telecommunications will make the place a madhouse. You can well imagine the rest. Already there are queues for water in Nikolaev, and who knows where else. How does queueing for water, if there is any, in temperatures of minus-20C to minus-40C sound?

Poland and Germany absorbing the cold freezing hungry Ukraine refugees sounds like a non-starter despite their energetic support to date. Of course the Ukrainians will need to be told how to shower by the Germans so as to save fuel.

Lots of commentators believe the time for talking is over, at least until Odessa is taken. They may be right. But Putin has been steadily measured and deliberate throughout, ratcheting up the pain, and that ratcheting is going to rise very very fast with the cold weather and lack of power. What happens when millions of people are freezing to death at the Polish border as US citizens go to the polls in November? Will Biden and Blinken and Nuland try to bring an anti-Russia hysteria into the polling booth, nuclear war be damned? Or will people begin to see the huge risks facing us all and publicly demand a stop to further madness?

U.S. Just Lost The Electricity War In Ukraine

johnhelmer  |   “War is war, whether you want to use terms like hybrid war or proxy war. It means destroying the enemy’s capacity to make war.  Shutting off the power in the rump Ukrainian state will do just that to the Ukrainians. If they then start to flee for refuge to Poland and Germany, this will be a disaster unparalleled in recent European history. Just the attendant collapse in telecommunications will make the place a madhouse. You can well imagine the rest. Already there are queues for water in Nikolaev, and who knows where else. How does  queueing for water, if there is any, in temperatures of minus-20C to minus-40C sound?  This won’t be like the blackouts from US sanctions and attacks in Cuba or Venezuela – there they didn’t  have to worry about freezing to death, the pipes bursting, or irreparable damage being done to billions of dollars’ worth of pumping, electrical,  and other equipment due to freezing.”

“How many people realize that a sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) circuit breaker,  commonly used in electrical substations, requires an electric heating blanket to be functional in sub-zero weather? Most westerners don’t. They are common in high voltage substations which ultimately feed the grid lines with power. In the Ukrainian case, I suspect  there is a mixture of those and older style oil circuit breakers (OCB), along with oil-filled large power transformers (LPT),  which are essential to electrical distribution. And guess where most of the oil comes from to fill these devices?”

“I suspect that most of Zelensky’s officials and officials in the supporting EU governments have persuaded themselves with their own propaganda. They aren’t daring to think through these questions, any more than they care to understand that the housing of the pumps delivering their water and treating their sewage will freeze and split apart if they are not heated via electrical means. Even if the gas is on — and it won’t be — electricity is needed to ignite, then control, furnaces. How many of these officials understand the long lead times, compounded by manufacturing shutdowns due to high energy costs, which you must have to replace and restore everything?”

“Who then will ‘stand with Ukraine’ when the gas and electricity rationing and unpayable consumer bills  roll over the Ukrainian border and into Poland, Germany, France, and the UK, as they are already doing?”

“The Russians have been hitting the Ukrainian electrical distribution system for months now. As we know, they started with the rail traction power yards which are largely branches of the wider electric grid. Now they have moved to the substations and so-called ‘thermal power’  plants, hitting them in what seems to be pellmell fashion. I expect that the Russians are gathering intelligence now on repair times, re-equipment availability, deliveries, repair crew composition and coordination.”

“So let’s imagine this. Winter arrives. The power is cut in Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, Pavlovsk, Nikolaev etc. and due to the unavailability of spares, repair crews, respite from attack, or all three, the outlook for the power outage is indefinite. What do people do? They migrate to where there is power, running water, heat etc… For millions this means west. So off they go. And when enough of them get there, bam! the power goes off there too.”

Reading the grid maps of the Ukraine,  the source says “it is obvious that the real vulnerability, in my estimation, lies in the approximately 88 substations for 330 kV distribution and 33 substations for 220 kV distribution. Note the nodes or junctions. Those are substations connecting the distribution lines which crisscross the Ukraine. These substations contain large power transformers, switchgear, DCS equipment [Distributed Control System] and other power quality and control equipment, spares etc. Widespread coordinated strikes on these substations will quickly overwhelm the Ukrainian ability to effect repairs and re-balance the loads on the generation stations. This will create a cascade effect whereby overloaded power plants, and distribution gear will ‘trip out’ over wide swathes of the country – if the protection between the Ukrainian and EU grids does not operate in time, or there is wild voltage/frequency oscillations there could be large interruptions in the EU countries being fed from Ukrainian sources.”

“Any repair efforts will also be severely hampered, if not crippled, if utility yards where spare cables and other gear, as well as vehicles (bucket and line trucks, cranes etc.) are stored and parked are struck. Personnel losses among the finite number of utility crew members due to follow-up attacks and the inevitable mishaps that come with interacting with damaged or compromised high voltage electrical equipment, will quickly mount. If the attacks are launched during the hard winter months, the impact will be exponential, increasingly unmanageable and catastrophic as the hours go by.”

 

What Up With Starlink?

Newsweek  |  Starlink communications device outages are straining the Ukrainian military as it mounts a counteroffensive to take back territory occupied by the Russians, according to Ukrainian officials.

Starlink, a satellite internet system operated by SpaceX, deployed technology to Ukraine after Russia invaded the country in late February. The company's billionaire CEO Elon Musk recently estimated that the company has spent $80 million in remote internet terminals for the Eastern European country.

However, the Financial Times reported on Friday that a senior government official in Ukraine said Starlink outages have created a "catastrophic" loss of communication on the frontlines of the war in Ukraine. One anonymous official told the newspaper that such outages occurred as forces were making advances into Russian-occupied areas. Soldiers also told the newspaper that the communications systems stopped working mid-battle, and that some Starlink technology hasn't worked in areas recently taken back from the Russians.

In an interview with Newsweek on Friday, V.S. Subrahmanian, a professor of computer science at Northwestern University, said that Russia "basically took out all of Ukraine's military communications" at the beginning of the war, and it's only when Starlink technology was introduced that "those comms went back to fairly reliable form."

Stephen Quackenbush, an associate professor of political science and the director of the Strategic Studies Program the University of Missouri, told Newsweek on Saturday that the outages "appear to be related to advances into territory previously occupied by Russia."

"That suggests that SpaceX is able to target access with a great deal of precision. It also appears to me to be an issue that they are working on improving, with greater coordination between the Ukrainian military and SpaceX," he wrote in an email.

He added that the outages don't change "the fact that momentum in the war is on Ukraine's side."

"While Russia has continued attacks in the Donetsk Oblast with limited success, Ukrainian advances in the northern (Kharkiv/Luhansk) and southern (Kherson) fronts over the past month have been beyond anything that Russia has been able to achieve since the spring," Quackenbush said.

Meanwhile, Subrahmanian said he doesn't believe the outages will pose a major problem for the Ukrainians in the long-run, saying that the Ukrainian military "has multiple ways of getting information to their troops" and has had continued support from the West.

 

General S.V. Surovikin: “For The Enemies Of Russia, The Morning Does Not Start With Coffee!”

"Appointed as the new commander of the SMO, Surovikin received carte blanche for everything: the use of any means other than nuclear weapons; defeat of any targets, including infrastructure ones, without restrictions and regard for collateral losses; use of the mobilized resource in any available quantities."

Phase Three has begun. It started with peaceful acceptance of 4 regions into RF. It continues with responding to any attacks on RF territory against RF citizens in a more overtly retaliatory, punitive and preventative fashion. It will end with elimination of Ukrainian State. Hopefully there will be no Phase Four (wider war). Time will tell.

Southfront |  On October 10, the explosions thundered in almost all Ukrainian regions. First attacks were confirmed by authorities in Kiev, and later in other regions. All major cities of Ukraine were hit by the strikes. The escalation followed the explosion on the Crimean Bridge. The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the attack on the bridge which claimed lives of three Russian citizens was “a terrorist attack aimed at destroying the critical civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation and its authors, performers, customers are the special services of Ukraine.”

The Russian military launched strikes using X-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as Geranium-2 suicude drones. Victims were reported.

So far, explosions were reported in Kiev, Rovno, Lvov, Ternopol, Ivano-Frankovsk, Khmelnitsky, Zhitomir, Kremenchug, Kropivnitsky, Krivoy-Rog, Odessa, Zaporozhie, Dnieper, Poltava, Kharkov and other smaller towns of Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian side, the numbers of the strikes are the following:

• 60  in Kiev region;
• 20 in Kharkov region;
• 47 in Nikolaev region;
• 15 in Lvov region;
• 27 in Vinnytsia region;
• 15 in Odessa region.

The main targets of the strikes:

• SBU Headquarters in Kiev;
• CHP-5 in Kiev;
• CHP-6 in Kiev;
•  Lviv TPP;
• Burshtyn TPP in Ivano-Frankivsk region;
• EU Advisory Mission in Kiev;
• Department of Law Enforcement Agencies in Kiev.

11 important infrastructure facilities were damaged in eight regions of Ukraine and Kiev, some areas were de-energized, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said.

Strategic infrastructure facilities were damaged in almost all regions of Ukraine. There is no electricity, water and Internet in several large cities. Eastern Ukraine was most affected by the attacks as these regions were already using backup energy lines after the main lines were hit earlier. Western Ukraine has also suffered critical infrastructure damage, but continues to operate on backup lines from Poland. Thermal power plants and main enterprises of many cities are damaged, the Ukrainian air defense system is overloaded.

There are no electricity in Lvov, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Kharkov, Khmelnitsky, Poltava, Ternopol, Lutsk, Rovno, Ivano-Frankovsk.

Ukrainian railways reported damage to the contact network, which may cause delays of western trains. The country’s railway stations operate normally.

Russian Ministry of Defense: Today, a massive strike was carried out with high-precision long-range weapons “on the objects of the military control, communications and energy systems of Ukraine.” The goal of the strike has been achieved, all designated facilities have been hit, the agency said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin: “The Kiev regime has put itself on a par with international terrorist organizations. Leaving this unanswered is impossible. At the suggestion of the Ministry of Defense, a massive blow was inflicted on energy, military support and communications facilities.”

In the capital of Ukraine, Russian strikes hit several districts of the city. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed several explosions in the Shevchenko district in the city center. One of the rockets hit Vladimirskaya Street, where the headquarters of the Security Service of Ukraine is located. The office of Vladimir Zelensky is located nearby.

It is reported that one of the strikes hit Hrushevsky Street where the governmental quarter is located. The reports are yet to be confirmed. Ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ilya Kiva claimed that one of the strikes hit the base and headquarters of the Nazi regiment Azov in Kiev. Another targets are the “Klitschko Bridge” and 101 Tower Business Center. Another strike damaged a thermal power plant in the Ukrainian capital. Damage was also reported to the Kiev railway station.

According to the head of the regional administration Alexey Kuleba, “strikes on energy infrastructure facilities” were reported in at least three districts of the Kiev region.

Residents of the city were asked to go to shelters, the central streets are blocked by law enforcement officers. Residents of the region were asked not to come to the capital without urgent need. The metro is stopped and is used as a shelter.

 

Adm. Mullen: "Time To Stop Talking Shit And Sit Down At The Table Like Sane Adults"

(Trigger warning for neocons) Fmr. Joint Chiefs chairman Adm. Mike Mullen says he's "a little concerned about the language" from Biden on nuclear war & says the US should "do everything we possibly can to try to get to the table" to negotiate with Russia. pic.twitter.com/3FFrXAufO2

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) October 10, 2022

abcnewsgo  |   President Joe Biden’s warning last week that Vladimir Putin was "not joking" about possibly using nuclear weapons was "concerning" and counterproductive to bringing an end to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, retired Adm. Mike Mullen said Sunday.

Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, was asked in an interview on ABC's "This Week" to assess the nuclear risk from Russia after Putin said he would use "all available means" to protect what he called his country's territorial integrity.

“President Biden's language -- we're about at the top of the language scale, if you will. And I think we need to back off that a little bit and do everything we possibly can to try to get to the table to resolve this thing,” Mullen told "This Week" co-anchor Martha Raddatz.

Mullen was referring to what Biden said on Thursday when he warned that for the "first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have the direct threat of the use of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path that they are going."

“I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon," Biden said then.

The White House has since clarified that the president was not acting on new intelligence of looming danger but was trying to underline the stakes given the current conflict in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have recaptured ground in the country's contested eastern and southern regions and have pushed back Russian troops.

On "This Week," Raddatz pressed Mullen on his proposed resolution: “How do you see him [Putin] saving face if he doesn't come to the table? If Ukraine can't figure anything out?”

Diplomacy and international pressure on both Ukraine and Russia would ultimately be key, Mullen argued.

“It's got to end and usually there are negotiations associated with that,” he said. “The sooner the better, as far as I'm concerned.”

 

Nazis Here And In Kiev Script Preposterous Presidential Shit-Talking...,

 MoA  |  The Biden administration is spewing ridiculous fear mongering propaganda:

 

Wow. Biden at a Dem fundraiser tonight: “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.” He says Putin is “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical,” nuclear or biological weapons because his military is underperforming.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) October 7, 2022

Fact is that Putin has not talked about the "potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons." Not. At. All. 

On September 21 Putin announced a partial mobilization of reservists. In his TV speech he mentioned nuclear weapons only with regards to 'Western' threats of using them.

Also for the record: Russia has signed and ratified the Biological Weapons Convention which prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological weapons. Russia has also signed and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention. In November 2017 it destroyed its last (Soviet) chemical weapons as mandated by the convention. It is the U.S. that still has not destroyed its chemicial weapons.

All the war mongering talk and reports about Russia's alleged threat of nuclear weapon use in Ukraine is totally unfounded. That 'western' media suddenly engage in it shows that it is part of a well directed propaganda campaign.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian comedian has called for 'preemptive' nuclear strikes on Russia 

 

Ukronazis Let The Cokehead In Kiev Live - Because He Fronts Western Cash

waisworld |  Today, in the middle of the biggest military operation undertaken during this war by the Ukrainians, about which nothing, bizarrely, is reported in the Western press, the official spokesman of Zelensky, Oleksiy Arestovich, published a remarkably passionate (possibly not sober) diatribe against Ukrainian nationalists on the same Russian-language Telegram feed where he publishes Zelensky's daily briefings (which I read every day), among other things blaming them (Ukrainian nationalists) for the Russian invasion.

Some excerpts:

"The ‘patriotic forces' of Ukraine (as they proudly call themselves) have never gained more than 1.5% in elections.

"The [Ukrainian] people are gray, but wise. The people understand that these comrades should not be entrusted with state power under any circumstances. In general, in none. There is simply no such case.

"Yesterday, I noted with true satisfaction how wise our people are--watching the reaction of the ‘patriotic spirit' to the creation of the Political Center of the Russian militant opposition to the Putin regime, headed by Ilya Ponamarev.

"I didn't fully understand before how you can be headless and narrow-minded at the same time. They managed to show me, bravo.

"I got a sensual understanding of how Ukrainian statehood has been f***d up until now--over and over again, for several hundred years in a row.

"It's very simple--they allowed ‘this' and ‘these' [Ukrainian nationalists] to make real state decisions.

"The reaction is simple:

"--‘we don't need opposition to Putin here, f*** off to the Russian Federation, and we will close ourselves up here in the Motherland, we will love each other and write.'

"These, God forgive me, motherf*****s [I struggle to translate the colorful and fundamentally untranslatable Russian obscenity "dolboeb"--CS], are the quintessence of eternal Ukrainian defeats.

"You say--‘motherf*****s' is too strong. These are volunteers, activists, patriots.'

"Yes. These are volunteers, activists, patriots. And--mother****s.

"It's good that not all volunteers, activists and patriots are morons.

"I would even say that the morons are in the minority.

"It seems to you, and most importantly--to them, that there are a lot of them. It's an illusion.

"They are just loud. And they are noisy because the weakest screams the loudest.

"These are jerky, weak-willed, extremely selfish creatures, shriveled up in a strange mixture of hatred and envy for each other and a terrible resentment for the rest of the environment.

"The political center of militant opposition to Putin in Ukraine is influence. Our influence on the Russian Federation.

"Only a mother**** can voluntarily renounce influence.

"They renounce. Everything is logical.

"At one time, Skoropadsky [the puppet Hetman of Ukraine at one point, appointed by German occupiers during WWI, a weird reference--CS] was ashamed to wipe his boots on this audience. As a result, we got here the Kiev Cheka, and a little later--the Holodomor.

"We could have become Finland. Instead we became a republic of the USSR.

"Today we have Putin's invasion, because it is this herd that poisons Ukraine and deprives it of real strength and influence--a small, farm herd trying to escape from reality under the plausible pretext of ‘patriotism'.

"They decided that they had a monopoly on patriotism here.

"What do they have the right to determine here--what is patriotism and what it should be.

"Idiots, complete idiots.

"To remove the sign--with Bulgakov [great Russian writer--Master and Margarita--born in Kiev--CS]--is to pinch off some of your influence.

"To close the Bulgakov Museum is to tear off a piece of influence from oneself.

"To abandon the Russian language [Arestovich, like Zelensky, is a native Russian speaker--CS] by the method of total bans is to lose influence--on our main enemy.

"Exactly in this way, exactly under these slogans and from this picture of the world, the largest military grouping in Europe, which we inherited in 1991, was destroyed.

"All these dreams of isolation from the enemy, with whom we have thousands of kilometers of a common border--and without natural obstacles (!), hundreds of years of common history and an eternal desire to devour us--nothing more stupid, infantile and helpless can be imagined.

"They have not just imagined--they are trying to make it a strategy and still impose on us. And this is good.

"It doesn't even occur to them, dumb-headed, in their frog fuss (once, the need is puffed up) that their weakness and inability to influence real events are directly related to the voluntary rejection of influence--through the constant desire for isolation.

"Influence is the ability to cause a backlash.

"If you seek to break the feedback from the main adversary, you are not affected.

"You create ideal conditions for the enemy to influence you.

"The snail strategy humiliates Ukraine. It demonstrates that Ukraine has the brains of a snail.

"I won't allow it. I need a Ukraine that plays across the entire chessboard. Affects Moscow, Vladivostok, Beijing, Washington, and the Martian settlement of Mask. And only in this way will Ukrainian culture rise and be realized. Only in this way the Ukrainian language will become fashionable--and studied. Only in this way will they want to imitate us. Isolation is not imitated. Strength is imitated."

https://t.me/O_Arestovich_official/2533

An odd thing indeed to appear in such an official channel. One thing we don't see in the Western press is the remarkable diversity of Ukrainian society, which is made up of different cultures, languages, and points of view, some of them very eccentric. Zelensky and most of his team are Russian speakers from the East, and as I have written before, they were elected on a platform of compromise and peace with Russia, a sharp break from the confrontational policies of the previous US-sponsored regime. The tension between Zelensky's party and the nationalist factions in Ukrainian politics is huge, and as I have written before, Zelensky is constrained in his actions by these elements. The nationalist factions have little support among the people (as Arestovich emphasizes in the quoted post) but they have a great deal of muscle--they possess various far-right militias, which were used to overthrow the Yanukovich government in 2014, and which can be used to overthrow Zelensky. So you might imagine that Zelensky has a gun to his head. I think these elements keep relatively quiet and line up behind Zelensky only because Zelensky controls the pipeline of Western aid, without which the country would collapse in a few minutes. But this can change in a flash.

I'm not sure what this weird Telegram post portends--is a rupture coming between Zelensky and Ukrainian nationalists? It's hard to say; the proximate subject of this post is a relatively minor issue (in the context of a big war)--whether or not to harbor the Russian dissident Ilya Ponamarev. I have been afraid for a long time that Zelensky might meet his end at the hands of his own nationalists.

It is possible that the current military situation is causing this stress.  There is a media blackout in the West, which was requested by Ukraine, so we're not reading about it, but there are a lot of dramatic events occurring right now on the ground. Yesterday, for example, it is reported that Ukrainian commandos, in a large force, attempted to storm the Zaporozhia nuclear power plant just before the UN inspectors arrived, and large-scale Ukrainian attacks are going on in the outskirts of Kherson, some of them achieving significant breakthroughs according to Russian sources. Weird we don't read about it in our press.

Arestovich himself is a, well, strange figure. To say the least. He was himself involved in far right (but not Ukrainian nationalist) causes, and was even some kind of follower of Dugin at one point (there is a video from the early 2000s where Arestovich appears on a panel with Dugin at one of Dugin's "Eurasianism" conferences). Arestovich was the deputy head of the far-right group "Bratstvo" at one point, an organization described by its founder (the even stranger Dmytro Korchynsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Korchynsky ) as the "Orthodox Taliban" [!!]. Arestovich's professional background is in acting, then psychology, a student of psychology and astrology, and oddly seems to have found work as a military advisor [!], then military intelligence officer, then propagandist. See: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-president-adviser-arestovych/

JE comments:  This is the head-scratcher of the day.  What exactly is Arestovich trying to achieve?  Even more confusing, his interpretation of how things got to this point makes no sense.  It all seems to hinge on Arestovich's notion of "influence," but how?  That the ultra-nationalists rejected Russian culture itself (as in Bulgakov), thus sparking the invasion?  Or that they are destroying the moral influence they have in this war (hence Moscow, Beijing, Washington), which undermines the Ukrainian military effort?

Zelensky needs the martial zeal of the ultra-nationalists, but he also has to keep them from turning against him.  A screed like this one from Arestovich may be many things, but smart politics isn't one of them.

Kerch Bridge Was Blown Up By Her Majesty's Secret Service Saboteurs

svpressa.ru  |  It is extremely important, of course, to understand what happened on the Crimean Bridge and how it happened. To stop this from happening in the future. But it is equally important to determine who did it.

Pay attention to how cleanly everything was done. The truck, loaded to the brim with explosives, did not just drive unhindered onto the bridge. Its appearance there was precisely synchronized with the movement of a huge freight train loaded with fuel across the bridge. And the explosion itself, it seems, happened exactly at the moment when the train and the truck, going in parallel directions and at the same speeds, caught up. In those moments, the distance between them became simply negligible for such a powerful charge that was set in motion.

And one more, in my opinion, important detail. If the destruction of part of the Crimean Bridge began with the explosion of a truck loaded with explosives, then definitely not an ordinary truck was involved there. But one that was equipped in a special way. Because among our opponents there are definitely neither martyrs nor Captains Gastello [reference to Soviet pilot Nikolay Gastello — S]. At least, nothing like this has been observed on the Russian–Ukrainian front before.

So the driver of the truck definitely had to get out of the cab in time to survive. Jumping, for example, from the roadway into the waters of the Kerch Strait. Where he may have already been expected by those who really needed it [the sabotage — S].

But in this case, to complete the operation, the truck itself had to be equipped in such a way that at the final stage of sabotage it could be controlled remotely. Suppose, from a foreign vessel passing in visual range from the bridge. Or from a foreign reconnaissance aircraft, the likes of which have been stalking that area for a long time.

So far, of course, this is just speculation. But if it is confirmed in the main, there will be a hell of lot of questions for the organizers of the protection and defense of the Crimean Bridge from the Rosgvardiya and the FSB. With the appropriate organizational consequences for those officials who for years have been bravely telling us that even a mosquito would not fly over the strategic object they were guarding without a permission from Moscow.

We will certainly be assured that this simply spectacularly organized and impeccably carried out sabotage at one of the most carefully guarded facilities in Russia is the work of exclusively Ukrainian saboteurs. Most likely, subordinate to the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ukraine. But is it?

Because if such skilled people really work in the GUR, what prevented them from putting the Crimean Bridge out of action even earlier? For example, at the height of the holiday season on the peninsula. Then the size of the disaster would look even more impressive. At least in public space.

Therefore, most likely, someone much more experienced and qualified in sabotage work has almost definitely joined the efforts of the GUR in this direction in recent weeks and months. It seems that we have the right to assume who exactly that was.

In order to come to the, most likely, correct conclusions, we will try to analyze several facts.

As early as April 23, 2022, that is, exactly two months after the start of the Russian special operation, the RIA Novosti news agency, citing sources in the Armed Forces of the Ukraine, has reported that at least two groups of specialists in sabotage and guerrilla war from the British Special Air Service (SAS) had arrived to that country from the city of Hereford. The headcount of the first one was at least 8–10 people. How many in the second one was not known then.

At that time one could only guess about the tasks of the British saboteurs. But it has long been known that people who serve in the SAS are considered to be among the most highly qualified in the world in organizing coups d’etat, mass protest rallies, contract killings of political figures, recruiting agents, including those in the highest echelons of power, preparing terrorist attacks.

“These are not ordinary special forces, these are intellectuals, each group always has an ideologue, one might say a professor, and the rest are specialists in their fields… With a high degree of probability, these specialists have arrived in order to improve the skills and efficiency of the Ukrainian special services in coordinating the activities of sabotage groups in the territories of the Ukraine controlled by the Russian troops,” an employee of a Russian law enforcement agency has added during a conversation with a RIA Novosti correspondent.

It is also known that the SAS special forces previously participated quite effectively in the Korean War, in the conflict in Northern Ireland, in the war between Great Britain and Argentina over the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands, in the events in the Persian Gulf and in NATO’s Afghanistan campaign. And in all those cases their main tasks were destruction of enemy headquarters, command posts, railway junctions, ammunition and weapons depots, and so on.

Most often, their own combat aircraft were guided onto those objects. However, when faced with opposition from a powerful air defense system (and the presence of such near Russia’s Crimean Bridge is no secret) or when the chosen target was small, special forces of that special service entered into action.

In June of this year, the presence of British saboteurs in the Ukraine was confirmed in the West. American investigative journalist Seth Harp published his correspondence with a mercenary from the U.S. who said that special forces soldiers of the British Special Air Service (SAS) were fighting in the Ukraine. And even, he said, were suffering losses from “friendly fire” of inexperienced soldiers from the Ukraine. “We have lost a British SAS sniper. The fighter advanced to the position, but the Ukrainian APC turned him into dust, since no one warned its crew,” the mercenary told investigator Harp.

In June, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of the Ukraine reported that for some reason it managed to obtain detailed technical documentation on the Crimean Bridge. Logically, this was necessary in order to calculate in advance the most vulnerable points of Russia’s main bridge from the point of view of saboteurs.

Finally, on August 15, Ukrainian MP Aleksey Goncharenko [Ukrainian spelling: Oleksiy Honcharenko — S] boasted that Kiev had held talks with British defense minister Ben Wallace at the NATO summit in June about a plan to destroy the Crimean Bridge. And he confirmed that with photographs taken at the negotiating table. Those indicated that the then–Prime Minister Boris Johnson was also sitting at the table that day. That is, that happened at the top-most level.

Meanwhile, the very fact of such negotiations in London could indicate only one thing: Britain, together with the Ukrainians, was preparing to participate in the destruction of the Crimean Bridge in the most direct way. Otherwise, what else was there to be discussed in its capital?

And what means for such a sabotage could the British possess in the Ukraine? The specialists from SAS. No one else to carry out such a delicate matter.

On August 17, it was suggested both in Russia and in the West that the SAS was involved in the events in our Kursk Oblast—a “warm up” before the Crimean Bridge operation. On that day, power transmission towers located near the villages of Pryamitsyno and Lyubitskoye, 44 kilometers from each other, and leading to the Kursk nuclear power plant were blown up. That threatened great technological troubles at the nuclear power plant. But Russian personnel managed to prevent the worst. Yet those who did it could not be detained. Which proved once again: people with the highest sabotage and reconnaissance skills were working against us.

It was only now, apparently, that it was Crimean Bridge’s turn for the close tandem of the SAS and the GUR.

Russian Reservists May Only Sit In Crimea, Belgorod, Belarus, Rostov - Just In Case...,

Russia may well bring not just Ukraine, or Europe  - but the entire debt-saturated western global financial system to its knees this winter. It may do so without sending in its 300,000 mobilized troops at all, but rather simply holding them in the wings as Ukraine punches itself out, its critical dual-use infrastructure is destroyed, its patrons bankrupted, NATO weapons exports and financial assistance dr ied up. A cold, hungry, broke Europe will turn against the Ukraine war and the growing flood of Ukrainian refugees.  Civil unrest and street demonstrations will grow, the police (now also suffering) will refuse to crush these protests violently.  Major banks (Credit Suisse and Deutschebank) as well as pension funds will collapse.  Government bonds and sovereign instruments (Treasuries) will go without buyers. All  Russian oil, gas, and uranium sales to the west stop.  Oil prices steadily climb towards $150/bl. Interest rates head to 10%. Inflation heads to 20% while unemployment jumps to 40%. The Global South suspends debt repayments to Western financial institutions and insists on being paid in gold for nonrenewable resources... 

A few things – first: NATO/US can see all the Russian troops amassing at the borders, all the train compositions moving equipment etc. Not rolling into Ukraine immediately may be the last attempt by Putin to give them a chance to see what is coming and relay that to the Ukrainians in the realization that “game over” is about to happen. The gradual partial mobilization may be Putin’s last negotiation/offer/chance to the West to instruct the Ukrainians to surrender the territories they have lost. It will be the last chance to save face (or for U.S. to save face before elections). Putin doesn’t have to say anything publicly - the satellite and video images say it for him.

Second: we don’t really know the positions of western intelligence services in Russia and how much they actually know. Judging by how well the sanctions are going and other isolated tidbits of information (like western media being unable to name a single Russian general in the operations theater for example, or western governments not anticipating the “rubles for gas” scheme or the size of the rebellion in the global south led by Russia and China), it all points to the fact that the ex-KGB man (Putin) has been running this operation like the whole thing is the KGB.

This means that the west actually has no idea what Russia's plan is. For all we know the “Putin is in trouble domestically” discourse -  in addition to “Russians are losing territory in disarray” - may be an elaborate ploy to project weakness and “bait” more investment into the conflict by NATO/USA. At the end of the day, beating the snot out of Ukrainians is just a small part of this conflict, the bigger goal (in my mind) would be to inflict lasting lack of desire to meddle with Russia onto the collective West. I think Putin would be happy with that – he does not strike me as someone who is out to pulverize everything. Instead, he strikes me as a responsible leader who wants to do business with the West tomorrow, only he wants to do it on an equal footing.

Finally, patience shows you are in control and have options. Yes, it could be all theater and Putin could internally be loading up on daily xanax in panic caused by the situation on the ground (“general” Petraeus has been paid to say as much) but a person has to ask themselves – how likely is this? Russia is a vast country with virtually unlimited resources and Putin has spent the last 20+ years preparing for this conflict. Look at all the military equipment rolling on the trails – it looks brand spanking shiny new! To think that he and his strategists have not considered the possibility that they would be fighting NATO/USA/EU on all fronts at the end – well, it sounds amateurish for a guy who is running the whole place like it is the KGB's Berlin directorate.

What is more likely is that here in the West we have gotten accustomed to everything being done for PR and optics. We simply cannot fathom that a leader might run his operations in secrecy without any theater on TV/Twitter and with the goal of just getting stuff done METHODICALLY for his country. This doesn’t mean Putin doesn’t care about public opinion – he has engineered it to the point where the roles are reversed – there is so much desire in Russia (and the global south and even among many western citizens!) to pulverize Ukraine and teach the West a lesson that he could be riding on that wave into Paris. The real mastery on his part is that he doesn’t have to slime his way around the TV camera every 5 minutes saying things and then have Karin Jean Pierre pathetically try to "clarify” wtf he was mumbling about. Putin has run his operation like a real leader – because he can.

In my opinion, there is something much larger than the SMO underway and that whatever happens day to day in Ukraine is a part of a much larger scheme the Russians are devised. This doesn’t mean that the collective West is blind and dumb. There are still competent people in all sorts of structures in the military and intelligence apparatus that can and do throw a wrench into Putin’s plans – it’s just that the Russians just might be better this time. After all, they are fighting on their own doorstep.

 

LATimes Whines "OPEC Members Need To Decide Whose Side They're On!!!"

LATimes |  On Wednesday, OPEC+ announced a dramatic reduction in production quotas, by 2 million barrels per day. According to oil ministers, the goal is to boost crude prices and “encourage investment” in the sector — making it sound like they are doing the world a favor. In fact, this is an extraordinarily harmful step that will push oil prices up — when the global economy is in a precarious state amid persistent inflation pressures.

Americans may first notice the effects at the gas pump, especially Californians already affected by some refinery shutdowns. Gasoline prices hit record highs in Los Angeles this week. A cut to global oil supply usually translates into even steeper increases in fuel prices and rising costs for goods.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has no incentive to drive the world into deep recession, so what are its members thinking?

Pushing up oil prices at this moment is an expression of support for OPEC+ member Russia, presumably aiming to build a deeper relationship between this major oil producer and core OPEC member states, most of which are in Africa and the Middle East.

That strategy already appears thoroughly wrongheaded. The likelihood of Russian defeat in Ukraine, increasing daily with Ukrainian advances, will change the global picture for oil considerably, and OPEC members need to decide whose side they are on for what comes next.

If you question Russia’s fate on the battlefield, look carefully at reports from the front lines from Russian military bloggers on Telegram and other messaging channels. It is an interesting irony that Ukraine, a free country with a free press, has strong operational discipline when it comes to the use of social media close to the conflict — and it’s from Russia, an authoritarian country with tightly state controlled and censored media, that we see a flood of videos, text updates and maps that show what is really going on.

If OPEC’s leaders were paying attention, they would see that Russian forces are in the process of being defeated in several regions in the air and on the ground. The Ukrainians have more drones, better armor, longer-range artillery and higher morale. Russian forces are greatly depleted and increasingly in danger of becoming trapped and overwhelmed on multiple fronts.

Don't The Saudi's Know What's Happening In Ukraine?!?!

businessinsider |  Saudi Arabia is raising oil prices for the US market again, while lowering them for Europe and leaving them largely unchanged for Asia.

November shipments of Arab Light crude to Asia from state-run producer Saudi Aramco will remain steady at $5.85 per barrel above benchmark prices. A Bloomberg survey estimated prices in Asia, the kingdom's top market, would rise by $0.40 per barrel.

Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco hiked prices by $0.20 a barrel for all US grades, while northwest Europe and the Mediterranean saw declines. While Asian prices for the company's light oil was flat, its medium and heavy-grade crude prices ticked up in Asia by $0.25. 

Last month, Saudi Aramco also lowered prices in Europe and raised them in the US.

The latest shakeup in prices comes a day after OPEC+ slashed its production quota by 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of global oil supply.

The cut was seen as a defeat for President Joe Biden, who has been pressing OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia for an output boost that would ease fuel prices. 

On Wednesday, the White House accused OPEC+ of "aligning with Russia" by lowering its quota, which comes at a time when "maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance."

Analysts are noting the heightened political environment of OPEC's moves, as fresh European sanctions on Russian oil loom later this year as well as a price cap on Moscow's crude.

"This is hugely political and a very clear signal of OPEC's discontent regarding the price cap," Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told the Financial Times. "Regardless of whether the price cap is actually effective, they see this as a dangerous precedent."

The Impotent Stupid - It Burns.....,

whitehouse.gov |  The President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on lower- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices.

The President’s work here at home, and with allies around the world, has helped to bring down U.S. gas prices: since the beginning of the summer, gas prices are down $1.20 – and the most common price at gas stations today is $3.29/gallon. At the President’s direction, the Department of Energy will deliver another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the market next month, continuing the historic releases the President ordered in March. The President will continue to direct SPR releases as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security, and he is directing the Secretary of Energy to explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term.

The President is also calling on U.S. energy companies to keep bringing pump prices down by closing the historically large gap between wholesale and retail gas prices — so that American consumers are paying less at the pump.

In light of today’s action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.

Finally, today’s announcement is a reminder of why it is so critical that the United States reduce its reliance on foreign sources of fossil fuels. With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. is now poised to make the most significant investment ever in accelerating the clean energy transition while increasing energy security, by increasing our reliance on American-made and American-produced clean energy and energy technologies.

Brandon's Secret Promise To OPEC Backfired

michaelshellenberger |  In early September, United States Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, told Reuters that President Joe Biden was considering extending the release of oil from America’s emergency stockpiles, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), through October, and thus beyond the date when the program had been set to end. But then, a few hours later, an official with the Department of Energy called Reuters and contradicted Granholm, saying that the White House was not, in fact, considering more SPR releases. Five days later, the White House said it was considering refilling the SPR, thereby proposing to do the exact opposite of what Granholm had proposed.

The confusion around the Biden administration’s petroleum policy was cleared up yesterday after a senior official revealed that the White House had made a secret offer to buy up to 200 million barrels of OPEC+ oil to replenish the SPR in exchange for OPEC+ not cutting oil production. The official said the White House wanted to reassure OPEC+ that the US “won’t leave them hanging dry.” The fact that this offer was made through the White House, not the Department of Energy, may explain why a representative of the Department called Reuters to take back the remarks of Granholm, who has shown herself to be out-of-the-loop, and at a loss for words, relating to key administration decisions relating to oil and gas production.

The revelation poses political risks for Democrats who, in the spring of 2020, killed a proposal by President Donald Trump to replenish the SPR with oil from American producers, not OPEC+ ones, and at a price of $24 a barrel, not the $80 a barrel that the Biden White House promised to OPEC+. At the time, Trump was seeking to stabilize the American oil industry after the Covid-19 pandemic massively reduced oil demand. Trump and Congressional Republicans proposed spending $3 billion to fill the SPR. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer successfully defeated the proposal, and later bragged that his party had blocked a “bailout for big oil.”

Even normally strong boosters of the Biden White House viewed the Democrats’ opposition to refilling the SPR as a major blunder. “That decision,” noted Bloomberg, “effectively cost the US billions in potential profits and meant Biden had tens of millions of fewer barrels at his disposal with which to counter price surges.” Moreover, observed Bloomberg, it will take significantly more oil today to fill the SPR than it would have two years ago. In spring 2020, the SPR contained 634 million barrels out of a capacity of 727 million. Now, the reserve is below 442 million barrels, its lowest level in 38 years.

The decision looks even worse in light of the decision by OPEC+ today to cut production, which will increase oil prices. The Biden administration in recent days has been pulling out the stops trying to persuade Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members, a group that includes Russia, to maintain today’s levels of oil production. Last Friday, the Biden administration sought a 45-day delay in a civil court proceeding over whether Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, for which bin Salman has taken responsibility.

The behavior by the Biden White House displays a willingness to sacrifice America’s commitment to human rights for the president’s short-term political needs. Instead of pleading with OPEC+ to maintain or increase high levels of oil production, the Biden administration could have simply allowed for expanded domestic oil production. Instead, Biden has issued fewer leases for on-shore and off-shore oil production than any president since World War II. As such, the pleadings by Biden and administration officials have backfired. The perception of the U.S. in the minds of OPEC+ members has weakened while the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin has strengthened.

Why is that? Why did the Biden administration decide to spend so much political capital trying, and failing, to get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to expand production when it could have simply expanded oil production domestically? What, exactly, is going on?

Errbody - And They Cousin - Fucks With Old Biden...,

Biden says on hot mic: "No one fucks with a Biden..." pic.twitter.com/Oo814Z8JY1

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 5, 2022

 

Not For Love Of Russia - Saudi Arabia Needs Oil At Above $80/bl To Fund Its Own Budget

Rep. Ro Khanna and Sen. Chris Murphy each demonstrate how painfully stupid and ignorant democrat congress critters are on the topic of energy, energy markets, and foreign policy. With morons like this running their mouths in public, you don't even need self-interested enemies. 

Rule of Thumb for (short and medium term) demand/supply elascity of oil; 1:20 

A 1% change in supply results in a 20% change in price. 

$100 million oil demand is close enough to estimate the impact of both the OPEC supply cuts as well as maybe a 1 million (?) reduction in RF exports to NATOland.

3% reduction in supply equals….a whopping huge increase in price. 

(note long term oil price elasticity is close to 1:1, but long term is generally out 3 years )

thehill |  Congressional Democrats and the Biden administration took aim at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its lead producer, Saudi Arabia, following the announcement that the OPEC+ bloc will cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day. 

The announcement comes months after President Biden visited Saudi Arabia to appeal to the kingdom’s leaders to increase production in hopes of reducing domestic gas prices and depriving Russia of energy revenues.

The cuts could mean an increase in gas prices ahead of election day and throw a lifeline to the Kremlin after weeks of gains by Ukrainian forces against the Russian invasion. 

“It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters hours after the announcement.

Pierre was noncommittal on whether the announcement would affect broader Washington-Riyadh relations, saying, “I can speak to this decision: it’s a mistake.” 

Democrats in Congress were blunter, specifically questioning the purpose of overlooking Saudi Arabia’s human rights records and selling the nation weapons at no benefit to the U.S.  

“I thought the whole point of selling arms to the Gulf States despite their human rights abuses, nonsensical Yemen War, working against US interests in Libya, Sudan etc, was that when an international crisis came, the Gulf could choose America over Russia/China,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted Wednesday morning. 

Murphy further excoriated the decision in an interview with CNBC Wednesday from the Warsaw Security Forum in Poland, calling for a “full-scale re-evaluation” of the U.S.-Saudi alliance.  

“What’s the point of looking the other way as the Saudis chop up journalists [and] repress political speech inside Saudi Arabia if, when the chips are down, the Saudis essentially choose the Russians instead of the United States?” Murphy said, referencing the 2018 assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

“We’ve been very clear with them; we need them right now … and it seems like either the Saudis aren’t willing to stand with us or have to be pushed very hard to stand with us,” Murphy said. 

The Connecticut senator struck a pessimistic note on Biden’s July visit, saying it “does not seem to have gotten us what we need,” also referencing the collapse of the truce in Yemen’s civil war. “I think you have to be very careful doing business with the Saudis these days.”