VE has always been measured retrospectively — after the fact. Thus accurate or mostly accurate or at least somewhat accurate picture of a vaccine's effectiveness can be gleaned — based on historical data.
And NOT based on Estimates.
Some may notice that “fact checkers” that “debunk” the growing and obvious simple fact that moderna and pfizer may end up having VE = 0 — all rely on CDC “estimates” — even as what they are trying to smear and claim as “false” — was based on an MDs and/or scientists quoting from actual data — and checked by those actually skilled in the science of data.
The narrative fact checkers use estimates to smear actual scientific knowledge — results gleaned from actual, concrete research and data. So what happens, now that our zig zagging, hysterical CDC director Rochelle Walesnky has just confirmed that mRNA neovaccinoid effectiveness equals zero?
Walensky told CNN the covid shots, having failed to prevent the disease among those inoculated also cannot prevent transmission of the disease among those inoculated.
mRNA neovaccinoid effectiveness=zero...,
She prefaced this astonishing acknowledgment of the drugs’ failure with an even more astonishing fabrication: “Our vaccines are working exceptionally well!”
The CDC Director: “Our vaccines are working exceptionally well! They continue to work well for Delta with regard to severe illness and death, they prevent it. But what they can’t do anymore is prevent transmission.”
“They continue to work well for Delta with regard to severe illness and death” she said — but what does the data say?
Don’t expect CDC director to level with the American people on this essential matter.
Expect more tears and flapdoodle from her; it’s how she runs.
To date, I am able to locate CDC published information that says Delta is highly transmissible; and unable to locate CDC information demonstrating this variant causes “severe illness and death” — the CDC’s most recent information from an Aug. 6 published study is equivocal:
“Finally, differences in vaccination coverage in some of these populations might be an additional confounding factor when estimating crude VE at the county and state levels. VE studies with more rigorous methods and the power to estimate protection against severe outcomes are needed to better understand the potential impact of the Delta variant.”
Obvious question: how does “VE studies with more rigorous methods and the power to estimate protection against severe outcomes are needed to better understand the potential impact of the Delta variant”
Square with: the covid shots “continue to work well for Delta with regard to severe illness and death”.
Walensky made this claim on national TV — fully aware her own agency’s most recent information is actually claiming that “VE studies with more rigorous methods and the power to estimate protection against severe outcomes are needed to better understand the potential impact of the Delta variant.”
Another paper says the Delta “B.1.617.2 variant is highly transmissible in indoor sports settings and households, which might lead to increased attack rates.”
This paper, last updated July 16, also says, in conclusion: ” Finally, vaccine effectiveness could not be calculated because of an inability to interview all persons associated with the outbreak and incomplete state immunization registry data.”
To sum up. VE is supposed to be determined after the fact.