Monday, August 17, 2015
are humans obsolete?
By CNu at August 17, 2015 0 comments
Labels: gain of function , Possibilities , tactical evolution
Sunday, August 16, 2015
sheldrake's morphogenetic field theory reduced to rubble and rubbish...,
By CNu at August 16, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Genetic Omni Determinism GOD , microcosmos , What IT DO Shawty...
Saturday, August 15, 2015
sleeping in r'lyeh our future partner in the conquest of space?
By CNu at August 15, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Genetic Omni Determinism GOD , Possibilities
straight out of a comic book: swarthy saracen devils violating the sanctity of....,
By CNu at August 15, 2015 0 comments
Labels: propaganda , Race and Ethnicity , Tard Bidnis
young patsies seduced by isis or by the fbi?
By CNu at August 15, 2015 0 comments
Labels: agenda , American Original , Ass Clownery , establishment , narrative
Friday, August 14, 2015
open thread: electoral rhetoric ≠ real life
By CNu at August 14, 2015 0 comments
Labels: 2parties1ideology , American Original , What IT DO Shawty
those with the ears to listen hear the drums of war...,
By CNu at August 14, 2015 0 comments
Labels: The Great Game , WW-III
Thursday, August 13, 2015
bout to be entertained by partisan establishment panty wadding unseen since the irving klaw era....,
Tetlock interviewed 284 people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends.” He asked them to assess the probabilities that certain events would occur in the not too distant future, both in areas of the world in which they specialized and in regions about which they had less knowledge. Would Gorbachev be ousted in a coup? Would the United States go to war in the Persian Gulf? Which country would become the next big emerging market? In all, Tetlock gathered more than 80,000 predictions. He also asked the experts how they reached their conclusions, how they reacted when proved wrong, and how they evaluated evidence that did not support their positions. Respondents were asked to rate the probabilities of three alternative outcomes in every case: the persistence of the status quo, more of something such as political freedom or economic growth, or less of that thing.
The results were devastating. The experts performed worse than they would have if they had simply assigned equal probabilities to each of the three potential outcomes. In other words, people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing monkeys who would have distributed their choices evenly over the options. Even in the region they knew best, experts were not significantly better than nonspecialists.
Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often less reliable. The reason is that the person who acquires more knowledge develops an enhanced illusion of her skill and becomes unrealistically overconfident. “We reach the point of diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly quickly,” Tetlock writes. “In this age of academic hyperspecialization, there is no reason for supposing that contributors to top journals—distinguished political scientists, area study specialists, economists, and so on—are any better than journalists or attentive readers of The New York Times in ‘reading emerging situations.” The more famous the forecaster, Tetlock discovered, the more flamboyant the forecasts. “Experts in demand,” he writes, “were more overconfident than their colleagues who eked out existences far from the limelight.”
Tetlock also found that experts resisted admitting that they had been wrong, and when they were compelled to admit error, they had a large collection of excuses: they had been wrong only in their timing, an unforeseeable event had intervened, or they had been wrong but for the right reasons. Experts are just human in the end. They are dazzled by their own brilliance and hate to be wrong. Experts are led astray not by what they believe, but by how they think, says Tetlock. He uses the terminology from Isaiah Berlin’s essay on Tolstoy, “The Hedgehog and the Fox.” Hedgehogs “know one big thing” and have a theory about the world; they account for particular events within a coherent framework, bristle with impatience toward those who don’t see things their way, and are confident in their forecasts. They are also especially reluctant to admit error. For hedgehogs, a failed prediction is almost always “off only on timing” or “very nearly right.” They are opinionated and clear, which is exactly what television producers love to see on programs. Two hedgehogs on different sides of an issue, each attacking the idiotic ideas of the adversary, make for a good show.
Foxes, by contrast, are complex thinkers. They don’t believe that one big thing drives the march of history (for example, they are unlikely to accept the view that Ronald Reagan single-handedly ended the cold war by standing tall against the Soviet Union). Instead the foxes recognize that reality emerges from the interactions of many different agents and forces, including blind luck, often producing large and unpredictable outcomes. It was the foxes who scored best in Tetlock’s study, although their performance was still very poor. They are less likely than hedgehogs to be invited to participate in television debates.
By CNu at August 13, 2015 0 comments
Labels: 2parties1ideology , political theatre , scott free
granny goodness in trubble..., (or she's completely above the law)
By CNu at August 13, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Granny Goodness , Rule of Law , What Now?
scott free is obviously pro-choice, but partisan-primary tard rustling ain't easy...,
Fox News host Sean Hannity asked the business mogul during an extended interview Tuesday night if half a billion dollars of taxpayer money should continue to go toward funding the abortion provider.
“They do good things,” Trump said, interrupting the question.
“Let’s say there’s two Planned Parenthoods in a way,” Trump continued. “You have it as an abortion clinic. Now that’s actually a fairly small part of what they do but it’s a brutal part and I’m totally against it and I wouldn’t do that. They also, however, service women.”
He went on to criticize former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), who said last week while criticizing Planned Parenthood that he’s “not sure we need half a billion dollars for women’s health issues.”
“He was so bad,” Trump said. “It’s like, what is he doing? We have to help women. A lot of women are helped. So we have to look at the positives also for Planned Parenthood.”
By CNu at August 13, 2015 0 comments
Labels: common sense , partisan , propaganda , Tard Bidnis
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
quiet as it's kept, scott BEEN goin in on granny...,
By CNu at August 12, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Granny Goodness , The Hardline , truth
did scott free just now spit truth on the unspeakable?
By Dale Asberry at August 12, 2015 0 comments
Labels: resource war , The Hardline , unspeakable
donald j. trump is hereby rechristened mr. miracle aka scott free...,
By CNu at August 12, 2015 0 comments
Labels: scott free , wake-up!
this is a modok thing, boris badenov couldn't possibly understand....,
By CNu at August 12, 2015 0 comments
Labels: bad apples
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
what trump supporters are really thinking in their own words...,
By CNu at August 11, 2015 0 comments
Labels: American Original , political theatre , quorum sensing? , What IT DO Shawty...
trump knows and has been very open about the real unemployment rate for a long time now...,
It was what the Trump campaign said about unemployment.
“Mr. Trump believes that the real unemployment rate is over 18%, not the reported 5.5%,” a spokesperson told me.
Trump’s distrust of the government’s job statistics isn’t new. In July, he even suggested that the U.S. unemployment rate could be as high as 40% — well above what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has found.
By CNu at August 11, 2015 0 comments
Labels: The Hardline , truth
Monday, August 10, 2015
u.s. corporate press desperate to marginalize donald trump...,
By CNu at August 10, 2015 0 comments
Labels: 2parties1ideology , corporatism , What IT DO Shawty
u.k. corporate press betrays electorate and goes to work marginalizing popular labor mp
'The anti-austerity party Podemos claimed its biggest victory in Barcelona, where activist Ada Colau seized control of the city hall. Podemos and Ciudadanos... made advances across the country that will give them a chance to shape policy for the first time.'
'Tomorrow's Spain doesn't feel identified with the establishment parties.'
'Together, the two traditional parties have seen their support shrink from two-thirds of the poll in 2011, to just over half. Podemos and Ciudadanos have filled the void. The two-party system that had dominated Spain since the end of dictatorship in 1978 is crumbling.'
'I have been in Greece, I have been in Spain. It's very interesting that social democratic parties that accept the austerity agenda and end up implementing it end up losing a lot of members and a lot of support. I think we have a chance to do something different here.'
'We saw this in the UK. The Scottish National Party [SNP] really beat the Labour Party by criticising austerity and criticising cuts, which are related to the failure of the "third way" policies of Tony Blair and Anthony Giddens.'
'[I]f the range of possible political programmes were placed on a linear scale from 1 to 100, the Labour and Conservative parties offer you the choice between 81 and 84.'
By CNu at August 10, 2015 0 comments
Labels: 2parties1ideology , corporatism , propaganda
Sunday, August 09, 2015
consciousness began when the gods stopped speaking...,
By CNu at August 09, 2015 0 comments
Labels: OCBBM
Saturday, August 08, 2015
race-baiting 101
By CNu at August 08, 2015 0 comments
Labels: American Original , Livestock Management , Race and Ethnicity
Friday, August 07, 2015
jobs lost in the u.s. since 2007
By CNu at August 07, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Collapse Casualties , contraction , musical chairs
roughly 60% of the civilian work force is fully employed and 40% are marginally employed or unemployed
By CNu at August 07, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Collapse Casualties , contraction , The Hardline , truth
inflation is far higher and gdp is far lower...,
By CNu at August 07, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Collapse Casualties , The Hardline , truth
Thursday, August 06, 2015
the war on drugs corrupted american policing and the rule of law beyond repair...,
By CNu at August 06, 2015 0 comments
Labels: necropolitics , not a good look , Rule of Law
criminal overseers gone wild and their corrupt union gone even wilder...,
Hon. Jonathan Fish has been an Orange County Superior Court Judge since 2008, but before that he was a prosecutor with the district attorney’s office who specialized in narcotics cases.
In the footage, an unidentified Santa Ana Police officer is talking to another cop as they wrap up their raid on the marijuana dispensary.
“You ever work with John Fish, the DA?” the officer asks.
“He was just in when I got there,” his partner responds.
“He's the judge that signed our warrant,” the first officer continues, adding that he had just spoken with Judge Fish and had enjoyed a good laugh with him about their old times together. “He's the fucker that pulled into a gas station on our way to the Staples Center and goes, ‘Let's buy some beers and drink 'em out of a red cup.’ I go, ‘That’s not going to be obvious.’ There we are at an am/pm getting styrofoam cups and pouring our beers into them. That fucking blew me away.”
By CNu at August 06, 2015 0 comments
Labels: Ass Clownery , not a good look , Rule of Law
Wednesday, August 05, 2015
apartheid - the repressed
By CNu at August 05, 2015 0 comments
Labels: American Original , FAIL , Great Filters , Living Memory
school segregation - nothing changed...,
By CNu at August 05, 2015 0 comments
Labels: American Original , FAIL , Great Filters , Living Memory
When Big Heads Collide....,
thinkingman | Have you ever heard of the Olmecs? They’re the earliest known civilization in Mesoamerica. Not much is known about them, ...
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theatlantic | The Ku Klux Klan, Ronald Reagan, and, for most of its history, the NRA all worked to control guns. The Founding Fathers...
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Video - John Marco Allegro in an interview with Van Kooten & De Bie. TSMATC | Describing the growth of the mushroom ( boletos), P...
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dailybeast | Of all the problems in America today, none is both as obvious and as overlooked as the colossal human catastrophe that is our...