Saturday, October 25, 2008

Economic Warfare?

Washington Post | Both of Russia's stock exchanges plunged about 14 percent Friday, extending a 10-week losing streak and pushing the main indexes down some 75 percent below their May highs. Regulators suspended trading in response, a measure they have adopted more than a dozen times in recent weeks, prompting one analyst to compare the exchanges to a cuckoo clock.

But the country's state-controlled television stations barely mentioned the drop or the suspension of trading. Instead, the evening newscasts have focused on the soothing statements of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, his successor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, and their allies. The Kremlin is worried about the possibility of a run on bank deposits or a rush to convert rubles into dollars. Either could derail its strategy of using the nation's huge foreign exchange reserves to bolster the financial system. The government is especially concerned about the pressure on the ruble, which has intensified because of the falling price of oil. Despite new limits on currency speculation, the ruble weakened Friday to its lowest level against the dollar since 2006.

Though some economists have urged the government to devalue the ruble to boost exports, the Kremlin has instead been burning through its reserves -- the total fell by another $15 billion in the week ending Oct. 17 -- to support the currency.

Devaluation would make it more difficult for Russian firms to pay back the nearly $500 billion they owe in foreign debt. It would also bring back memories of the 1998 crisis and undermine the Kremlin's message that the Russian economy remains healthy.

Polls continue to show strong public faith in the ruble, with more than 50 percent of respondents saying it is the most secure currency for their savings. Confidence in the banks appears shakier, with 40 percent of depositors saying they are worried about losing their savings.

"My parents put all their savings in the bank, and we're worried there will be a default," said Dmitrina Rudik, 61, a retired government worker who was pushing her grandson in a stroller in a park. "At the same time, prices of food are getting higher and higher."

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