Occupation Plan for Iraq Faulted in Army History

The NYTimes brings you all the history you can use on the U.S. debacle in Iraq. The story of the American occupation of Iraq has been the subject of numerous books, studies and memoirs. But now the Army has waded into the highly charged debate with its own nearly 700-page account: “On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign.”

In 2005, the RAND Corporation submitted a report to the Army, called “Rebuilding Iraq,” that identified problems with virtually every government agency that played a role in planning the postwar phase. After a long delay, the report is scheduled to be made public on Monday.

But the “On Point” report carries the imprimatur of the Army’s Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth. The study is based on 200 interviews conducted by military historians and includes long quotations from active or recently retired officers.

Preparing the Battlefield

In next week's New Yorker, Seymour Hirsch continues his coverage of activity prefatory to the outbreak of WW-III in earnest, enjoy.

Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons program.

Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. United States Special Operations Forces have been conducting cross-border operations from southern Iraq, with Presidential authorization, since last year. These have included seizing members of Al Quds, the commando arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and taking them to Iraq for interrogation, and the pursuit of “high-value targets” in the President’s war on terror, who may be captured or killed. But the scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which involve the Central Intelligence Agency and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), have now been significantly expanded, according to the current and former officials. Many of these activities are not specified in the new Finding, and some congressional leaders have had serious questions about their nature.

quoth my man T3; Is not the government of this nation b.r.o.k.e.? busted? de-looted? on "e"? Sho' nuff...and for years at that.

If the gubment wasn't called a gubment and was just called a bully - what would you call a bully with a big-ass club, no job and fewer and fewer kids from whom to steal lunch? A hungry muhphukkin' bully. That's your "global economy" of too-day.

$200 just means the bully is gonna will have officially eaten everyone's lunch.

Peak Phosphorus?

Battered by soaring fertiliser prices and rioting rice farmers, the global food industry may also have to deal with a potentially catastrophic future shortage of phosphorus, scientists say.

Researchers in Australia, Europe and the United States have given warning that the element, which is essential to all living things, is at the heart of modern farming and has no synthetic alternative, is being mined, used and wasted as never before.

Massive inefficiencies in the “farm-to-fork” processing of food and the soaring appetite for meat and dairy produce across Asia is stoking demand for phosphorus faster and further than anyone had predicted. “Peak phosphorus”, say scientists, could hit the world in just 30 years. Crop-based biofuels, whose production methods and usage suck phosphorus out of the agricultural system in unprecedented volumes, have, researchers in Brazil say, made the problem many times worse. Already, India is running low on matches as factories run short of phosphorus; the Brazilian Government has spoken of a need to nationalise privately held mines that supply the fertiliser industry and Swedish scientists are busily redesigning toilets to separate and collect urine in an attempt to conserve the precious element.

Dana Cordell, a senior researcher at the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology in Sydney, said: “Quite simply, without phosphorus we cannot produce food. At current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years. From the U.K. Times Online.

u.k. rural gangs move into the oil business

Now from the Guardian;

It may not be quite like the film Mad Max out there, with violent gangs roaming Britain in search of the few remaining drops of fuel, but for farmers like Eddie Cowpe it feels a little bit like it.

He returned to his farm shop in Lancashire recently to find that thieves had emptied his 10,000-litre diesel tank. What they did not take they let drain away on to his stone yard and into the water course, leaving Cowpe facing a bill of almost £70,000 for the fuel lost and the clean-up.

"I said two years ago that this country was going to see serious civil unrest and riots because of food and fuel shortages," said Cowpe. "It's going to come true. It's a frightening scenario. These people are morons and vandals. They just don't care. I don't know where it's going to end."

In the week that Rosemary Dove, a farmer's wife from Co Durham, collapsed and died after an alleged diesel raid, the fuel crisis is hitting farmers, truckers, motorists and householders in the pocket - and making them feel rather less safe.

With oil prices jumping to another record high yesterday to break through the $142 a barrel level, it is likely to become an even more attractive target for thieves.

Oil prices have been on an upward trend since the millennium, when they were around $10-20 a barrel. The huge increases have led to gangs of thieves in lorries or vans fitted with drums and pumps roaming the countryside, often tailing tankers so they can be sure of finding freshly topped-up containers.

It appears that Collapse Criminality is rife throughout the anglosphere....,

Bully in Decline....,

By pumping out money in an effort to forestall recession and paper over balance sheet problems, the Federal Reserve is driving up commodity and food prices in general. Yet American real incomes are not growing. Even without jobs offshoring, US economic policy has put the bulk of the population on a path to lower living standards.

The crisis that looms for the US is the loss of world currency role. Once the dollar loses that role, the US government will not be able to finance its operations by borrowing abroad, and foreigners will cease to finance the massive US trade deficit. This crisis will eliminate the US as a world power.

Paul Craig Roberts says what T3 said......,

10 Million Fewer Cars on U.S. Roads

A new forecast calls for gasoline prices to hit $7 (U.S.) a gallon in the next two years and oil to soar to $200 a barrel by 2010.

The report by CIBC World Markets also predicts there will be 10 million fewer cars on the road in the United States by 2012.

“Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America's highways in history,” Jeffrey Rubin, the lead author, wrote in Thursday's report.

Economist Benjamin Tal, who co-authored the report with Mr. Rubin, said Canadians can expect to pay about $1.85 to $2.00 per litre of gas at the pumps by 2010. Mr. Tal also expects the numbers of Canadian vehicles on the road to drop by 700,000 by 2012 – much less than the 10 million predicted in the U.S.

“We don't have the same story in the sense that most low income Canadians have better access to public transportation,” he said, referring to the report's U.S. calculations that estimates that about half the cars coming off the road will be from Americans who make less than $25,000.

In Canada, the decrease will be mainly come from middle-class families that own two or three cars, Mr. Tal said. From the Globe and Mail.

Final Warning

This is the article that accompanied the dangerzones interactive media map below. Available to NewScientist subscribers only, I found a copy at TMC.net, enjoy.

a few well-placed explosives, an energy-sapping cold winter or an unusually intense hurricane season could send shock waves across the globe. The potential consequences are so serious that governments are drawing up emergency plans to cope should the worst happen. According to one analyst who took part in a simulation of just such a crisis, the situation most experts fear is what they call a "psychological avalanche".

Here's what happens. A small, distant country one day finds it can no longer import enough oil because of a spike in prices or problems with local supply. The news media whip this up into a story suggesting an oil shock is on the way, and the resulting panic buying by the public degenerates into a global grab for oil.

Most industrialised countries keep an emergency reserve as a first line of defence, but in the face of worldwide panic buying this may not be enough. Countries in which the oil runs out face transport meltdown, wreaking havoc with international trade and domestic necessities such as food distribution, emergency services and daily commerce. Without oil everything stops.

The roots of our oil addiction can be traced back to the end of the 19th century, when petroleum began to be pumped from wells across America. It wasn't long before it become obvious what a great transport fuel it could provide. Oil-based fuels paved the way for intensive farming and extensive road networks; they drove the influx of populations into cities, drove growth in shipping and eventually made mass air travel possible. "Oil has shaped our civilisation. Without crude oil you'd have no cars, no shipping, no planes," says Gideon Samid, head of the Innovation Appraisal Group (IAG) at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.

And it's not just about fuels. A giant chemical industry relies on oil as its feedstock, and without it many of the products we now take for granted would vanish. "You'd see no plastics, no bags, no toys, no cases on TVs, computers or radios. It's absolutely everywhere," says Samid.

"Much of the economic expansion and growth of the human population in the 20th century is directly tied to the availability of large amounts of cheap oil," says Cutler Cleveland, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University. "There isn't a single good or service consumed on the planet, except in rural economies, that doesn't have oil embedded in it. Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy."

The secret of oil's success is its portability and extraordinarily high energy density. One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 46 US gallons of gasoline; burn it and it will release more than 6 billion joules of heat energy, equivalent to the amount of energy expended by five agricultural labourers working 12-hour days non-stop for a year.

The vast majority of oil is consumed by transport. In the US, that sector accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the 20.7 million barrels the country gets through each day.

More than half of the world's oil comes from seven countries, the leading supplier being Saudi Arabia, which produces more than 10 million barrels a day. Then come Russia, the US, Iran, China, Mexico and Canada. Twenty years ago, there were 15 oilfields able to supply 1 million barrels a day. Now, there are only four. The largest is the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

Danger Zones

A huge proportion of the world's oil supply flows through just a handful of pipelines and shipping lanes. Knocking out just one of these would have dangerous consequences. Click on the image to visit the interactive map and drilldown for the salient details.

The Bonga Offshore Oil Platform Attack

On the heels of this weekend's Saudi Oil summit, Nigerian production has dropped to the lowest level in 25 years. This was in part because militant attacks shut in as much as 345,000 barrels per day of Nigerian production in the past few days. The Nigerian militant group MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) has demonstrated a continuing ability to interrupt production from Nigeria's mature, onshore fields. However, the future promise of Nigerian oil is not onshore. Rather, it is the 1.25 million barrels per day of offshore production scheduled to come on line in the next 6 years. Analysts previously believed these offshore facilities were out of MEND's reach.

This assumption--that far offshore facilities are beyond the reach of militants--must now be reconsidered. The week's most successful attack, shutting in 225,000 barrels per day, came against Shell's Bonga facility. At 120 km offshore, the Bonga attack demonstrated a new militant capability in the offshore environment. As Nigeria is one of the few states with the geological potential to significantly increase oil production and exports, the Bonga attack may prove to be an extremely important development.

Offshore facilities are highly complex and vulnerable feats of engineering. While they are generally engineered to withstand extreme natural environments, they may not be well fortified against intentional attack. We do not know the extent of fortifications, as the specific security considerations and plans for each platform are not publicly available. It makes sense, however, that to the extent the threat from MEND was considered to be non-existent at the time that all scheduled Nigerian megaprojects entered development, fortification against attack was not a significant design criteria.

Full Monty at the Oil Drum. Be sure to read the conclusion and discussion of geopolitical feedback loops.

Fertiliser shortage hits India's farms

From the BBC News;

Increasingly many countries across the world are beginning to recognise that expensive fertilisers, or even a supply shortage, is not just a problem for the farmers.

It has a direct effect on the cost and availability of food. Across the world countries are looking at farmers to produce a bumper crop this year to overcome global food shortage. As fertiliser prices go up – food prices go up as well, threatening to force millions of poor people into starvation.

Back on the farms, Mr Sehrawat is still waiting for his supply.

"It is really urgent that we get our supplies," he says.

"You can wait for monsoons - that's not under anyone's control - but you can't be made to wait for fertilisers.

"At this rate, people have to keep waiting for rice on their plates. Nothing is going to grow on our fields."

With general elections next year, the government in India could suffer the political consequences of poor agriculture output.

And the anger of unhappy farmers who cannot reap the benefits of a good monsoon.

It's always the details that come around to bite really, really hard. Fertilizer - as we all know - is a petrochemical dependent on natural gas feedstocks.

India consumes millions of tonnes of fertiliser each year.

Production costs have risen on the back of soaring crude oil prices.

Globally fertilizer rates have tripled in the last year.

Prices of the three main fertilizers, nitrogen, potash and phosphate, have gone up by almost 300%.

Diammonium phosphate costs nearly $1,300 (£650) per tonne whereas farmers in India pay around $250.

The Indian government subsidises the price by nearly 85% for farmers, which in turn means India's subsidy bill is getting bigger each year. At the current forecasts it amounts to almost 2.5% of the country's gross domestic product.

U.S. Cities Cut Services

Surging fuel prices are forcing cities across the United States to cut back on services and dip into cash reserves to keep their fleets on the road, according to a survey released on Friday.

Ninety percent of the 132 mayors surveyed by the U.S. Conference of Mayors reported that climbing fuel prices have had a significant impact on city budgets and operations.

The average retail price of diesel used in city buses and garbage trucks has shot up 65 percent over the past year. Gasoline prices jumped about 35 percent over the same period, as many local governments are feeling the pinch of the wider nationwide economic slowdown.

"It's just a snowball. It all hits at once. So, governments, mayors are having to make tough choices," said Mayor Douglas Palmer of Trenton, New Jersey.

"Everything is on the table except for a reduction in public safety."

from Reuters

Taxpayers Fund Bank of America's Countrywide Takeover

According to Bloomberg.com

Bank of America Corp.'s $3 billion takeover of Countrywide Financial Corp. will be financed by 138 million tax-paying Americans.

Bank of America, led by Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis, can use tax write-offs to pay for Countrywide, the country's biggest mortgage lender, said Robert Willens, a former managing director at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. who now runs his own accounting firm. Taxpayers may pick up about $5 billion of Countrywide's losses over 20 years, he said. Countrywide shareholders approved the sale today.

``Ken Lewis got a break,'' Willens said. ``What these losses do is reduce the effective cost of the deal so the headline price isn't really what they're paying. It's entirely possible that the entire equity purchase price could be financed by tax savings.''

The tax benefit may explain why Lewis continues to back the purchase even as analyst Paul Miller of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. said he should ``walk away.'' Miller, the top-ranked analyst in Bloomberg's latest survey of stock-pickers, estimates Countrywide will lose as much as $33 billion on bad home loans. Lewis said this month Bank of America, the biggest U.S. consumer bank, will come out ahead even if home prices drop by more than 25 percent in the next two years.

Countrywide and its CEO, Angelo Mozilo, were sued yesterday by the states of California and Illinois for hiding fees and using false marketing claims, said California Attorney General Jerry Brown and Robyn Ziegler, a spokeswoman for Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Countrywide was the biggest U.S. subprime lender in 2006 and 2007, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a Bethesda, Maryland- based industry newsletter. Subprime mortgages were available to borrowers with bad or incomplete credit histories.

Illinois to Sue Countrywide

The Illinois attorney general is suing Countrywide Financial, the troubled mortgage lender, and Angelo R. Mozilo, its chief executive, contending that the company and its executives defrauded borrowers in the state by selling them costly and defective loans that quickly went into foreclosure.

The lawsuit, which is expected to be filed on Wednesday in Illinois state court, accused Countrywide and Mr. Mozilo of relaxing underwriting standards, structuring loans with risky features, and misleading consumers with hidden fees and fake marketing claims, like its heavily advertised “no closing costs loan.” Countrywide also created incentives for its employees and brokers to sell questionable loans by paying them more on such sales, the complaint said.

In reviewing one Illinois mortgage broker’s sales of Countrywide loans, the complaint said the “vast majority of the loans had inflated income, almost all without the borrower’s knowledge.”

Suburb-Exurb Flight Sprawl "Reconsidered"

In today's NYTimes;

Across the nation, the realization is taking hold that rising energy prices are less a momentary blip than a change with lasting consequences. The shift to costlier fuel is threatening to slow the decades-old migration away from cities, while exacerbating the housing downturn by diminishing the appeal of larger homes set far from urban jobs.

In Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Minneapolis, homes beyond the urban core have been falling in value faster than those within, according to an analysis by Moody’s Economy.com.

Americans have felt the periphery was most desirable, and now there’s going to be a reversion to the center. Should be socially interesting.....,

Pandering and Promises is NOT a Plan!

Gas at $4 brings promises, pandering on campaign trail; few prospects for results

"Like two rival filling-station owners across the highway in long-bygone price wars, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain keep putting up flashy signs and offering new incentives in hopes of attracting customers battered by $4 gas prices.

McCain is offering a summer break from the 18.4-cent federal gasoline tax, and holding out the promise of more offshore drilling to help you drive more cheaply to the beach. He wants to build 45 new nuclear reactors to generate electricity. On Monday, he proposed a $300 million government prize to anyone who can develop a superior battery to power cars of the future.

He may even wash your windows.

If you pull into the Obama station, he'll promise you cash back from the windfall-profits tax he plans to slap on Big Oil. Check the tires? How about promises to go after oil-market speculators who help drive up prices as well as big subsidies for solar, wind, ethanol and other alternative-energy projects? The Illinois senator likens his energy package to the Kennedy-era space program.

Oil and gas prices that have doubled in the past year have squeezed aside the war in Iraq as the No. 1 issue this election year and both parties are blaming each other for the price spike – and for apparent congressional paralysis."

It's not that difficult. State an objective and formulate a plan for getting there. Unless of course, all this slipping and sliding into economic darkness IS the plan?

Oil Market is Saturated

"Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed calls for oil producers to ramp up production in response to high prices, saying the market is over saturated with more crude than it was consuming.

"I feel that oil prices are going up artificially. There is a game going on behind it," said Ahmadinejad in an interview with state television focused on his controversial handling of the economy.

"The market is now over saturated and oil is being pumped beyond consumption. Consumption growth is less than production," he said.

Iran, the No.2 producer in OPEC after the oil cartel's kingpin Saudi Arabia, has responded much more coolly than the kingdom to calls for producers to hike production in response to record prices.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah condemned oil "speculators" on Monday at a summit of leaders that debated the spiralling price of crude, which has doubled over the past year."

Oil market is saturated: Iran president

Back to the Future

A view of the only possible future we have, excerpted from Vietnam's traditional past.

Why Lie?

Oil and natural gas powered the past. But the future? Fact is a growing world will require more, 45 percent more by 2030 along with greatly expanding alternatives. We have substantial oil and natural gas resources1 right here [NARRATOR STROLLS OVER MAP OF THE LOWER 48 STATES].2 Enough to power 60 million cars3 and heat 160 million households for 60 years.4 With advanced technology and smart policies,5 together we can secure America’s energy future.6 Log on to learn more.

(1) Only of fraction of those oil and natural gas resources are ever likely to be recovered for both economic and technical reasons. There is no guarantee that those that we do recover will come out at the rate we want them to.

(2) Includes all offshore areas such as Cape Cod, Hilton Head, Miami Beach, the Gulf of Mexico and the California, Oregon and Washington coasts. Also included are all wilderness areas of Alaska (not pictured).

(3) 60 million cars sounds like a lot, but that represents only a fraction of the more than 250 million highway vehicles currently registered in the United States.

(4) The “60 years” claim is theoretical (and perhaps mere fantasy). See footnote 1. Also, powering cars and heating homes assumes that the highest and best use of oil and natural gas is to burn them notwithstanding their critical roles as feedstocks for thousands of chemicals and others products that are essential to the modern world.

(5) “Smart policies” is shorthand for opening up all public lands and offshore areas in the United States to drilling.

(6) This doesn’t mean energy independence. The U. S. will still be importing more than half its oil by 2030 according to the U. S. Energy Information Administration. We won’t really be secure.

In fact, by suggesting that domestic oil resources could power 60 million cars, API is admitting that energy independence is a false hope even as it confuses viewers with the notion that we Americans will be more secure.

What might make viewers even more concerned is a second API ad which claims that we get two-thirds of our oil and natural gas from North America. This is a rough but reasonable estimate of the heat value of the oil and natural gas combined. But, once again we find ourselves watching API’s spokeswoman walking across a map of the lower 48 states as she delivers her message. Perhaps Canada and Mexico from whom we import significant quantities natural gas and oil are too large to represent on the map. Or perhaps it would be a little impolitic to treat Canadian and Mexican oil and natural gas as if it belonged to the United States. Better to leave both countries off the map and hope that nobody notices. People might begin to think inconvenient thoughts such as, “Why should the Canadians and the Mexicans simply sell us all the oil and natural gas we want? Maybe they’ll need it for themselves. Oh, and by the way, didn’t I hear that Mexico’s oil production is declining and Canada’s natural gas production is flat?” Clever and Deceptive: The Oil Lobby’s New Ads

Poor Dogs...,

Having lost her job and her three-bedroom house, Darlene Knoll has joined the legions of downwardly mobile who are four wheels away from homelessness.

She is living out of her shabby 1978 RV, and every night she has to look for a place to park where she won't get hassled by the cops or insulted by residents.

"I'm not a piece of trash," the former home health care aide said as she stroked one of five dogs in her cramped quarters parked in the waterfront community of Marina del Rey.

Amid the foreclosure crisis and the shaky economy, some California cities are seeing an increase in the number of people living out of their cars, vans or RVs.

L.A. seeing more people living out of their cars.

Beyond Brand Obama

Douglas Rushkoff asked some really salient questions a couple of weeks ago and speaking just for myself, these are questions I've not seen answered yet;

Where the Obama effort has always disturbed me, however, is in how branded it all feels. From the beginning of his candidacy, I felt as if the Obama name and image represented a new way of doing things more than it exemplified it. My own sense of cynicism reached a peak when Oprah Winfrey began campaigning for him. I've watched her similarly enthused by fakers from Tom Cruise to the founders of The Secret. Oprah's "energy," if you will, is that of national branding. Oprah + (insert your product here) = MegaBrand. Using Oprah to push Obama feels a bit like using rock to push religion. But it's not fair to criticize Obama for letting a powerful media celebrity attempt to teach her followers why he'd be good for the country, is it? He needs to get elected, after all.

Then there's Obama's efforts to reach out to new audiences online. And for sure, Obama's Facebook/YouTube/website representation is far beyond anything Howard Dean and his folks did last time out. Where Dean's people inserted their stock candidate into an online fund-raising campaign, Obama's message and media are more organically related to one another. His message is about invigorating bottom-up, grass-roots, community organizing - and the Internet is that, if anything.

Still, a closer look at Obama's online effort reveals many opportunities for work, and few opportunities for what I consider to be intelligent participation. We can sign up to make phone calls, send emails, volunteer in the streets, or become precinct captains. But where's the participatory democracy wiki? Where do we get involved in the conversations that help shape his policy positions? How is he incorporating the massive intelligence of his support network into his philosophy of governance? BarackObama.com is a great example of crowd-sourcing, but it's a far cry from even a fledgling effort at open source democracy.

Where does one get involved in the coversations that bring his policy position around to address the Peak Oil crisis, for example?