nikkei | Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has blamed the rapidly worsening
conflict in the Middle East on a lack of justice for the Palestinian
people, days after the militant group Hamas carried out a deadly assault
on Israeli territory.
"The crux of the issue lies in the fact
that justice has not been done to the Palestinian people," Beijing's top
diplomat said in a phone call with Brazil's Celso Amorim, a former
foreign minister and now a special adviser to Brazilian President Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva. A statement on the call was released by Wang's
ministry.
The call came just ahead of an emergency meeting of the
U.N. Security Council on Friday to discuss the Israel-Hamas war. Brazil,
a nonpermanent member, is chairing the council this month.
Wang
urged all parties in the Middle East to exercise restraint to prevent
further escalation. He added that the United Nations has a
responsibility and duty to play a role in the Palestinian issue, and
China is ready to cooperate closely with various parties, including
Brazil.
Amid an outpouring of Western support for Israel after
Hamas' weekend onslaught killed over 1,300 people, Beijing has
maintained a relatively neutral position, lamenting civilian casualties
but not condemning Hamas. Soon after the initial attack, it called for
an immediate cease-fire and repeated its support for a two-state
solution that would create an independent Palestinian homeland.
But
the comment by Wang on how China sees the root cause of the problem
appeared to mark a hardening of its stance amid heavy Israeli airstrikes
on Gaza and talk of a possible ground operation to dislodge Hamas,
which controls the strip.
Earlier this year, China positioned itself as a potential mediator between Israel and the Palestinians, as it seeks to become a more influential player in the region.
citypaperbogota | “What you are saying is an insult to the six million victims of the
Holocaust and to the Jewish People. Your comments here (on “X”), and
others on your page completely ignore the hundreds of dead and kidnapped
during Hamas’ murderous attack on Israeli civilians. This post is a
shame to you and your country. A world leader should do better,” stated
the World Jewish Congress, on Tuesday, to Colombian President Gustavo
Petro.
In the realm of political irresponsibility and moral bankruptcy,
Colombia’s Gustavo Petro’s recent comments stand out as a glaring
example of a leader who has not only lost his way, but political
accountability. His crude comparison of Gaza to Auschwitz, the Nazi
concentration camp where millions of innocent people were systematically
murdered, is nothing short of grotesque.
As most recently reported in The Times of Israel, and many other
prestigious media outlets, Petro’s remarks have not only drawn
condemnation from Jewish organizations but have exposed his woeful
ignorance about history, diplomacy, and human suffering. The World
Jewish Congress’s statement, directed at President Petro, is a stark
reminder of the gravity of his statements.
Petro’s troubling statements began with a series of pro-Palestinian
messages on “X” in which he prominently displayed at the top of his
profile a collage of photos of Palestinian children, whom he claims were
“murdered by the illegal occupation of their territory.” This collage
posted on the same day Israelis were being murdered in the street, in
their homes and at an outdoor music festival, shows a shocking lack of
empathy for Israelis, or the citizens of any other nation that could be
attacked on such a massive, inhumane, scale.
When Israel’s Ambassador to Colombia, Gali Dagan, cordially expected
Petro to condemn Hamas up to 48 hours after Saturday’s horrific attacks,
Petro’s response was nothing short of astonishing. His reply,
“Terrorism is killing innocent children, whether in Colombia or
Palestine,” is a disturbing failure to differentiate between the actions
of a terrorist organization and a democratic state’s efforts to protect
its citizens. Petro’s tweet was posted as an estimated 150 Israelis,
Americans, Canadians, Italians, even a Colombian couple, ranging in age
from toddlers to the elderly, were taken hostage by Hamas.
The Confederación de Comunidades Judías de Colombia, Colombia’s
Jewish communal organization, issued a robust statement condemning
Petro’s comments. The statement rightly pointed out that the vast
majority of democracies around the world, including those led by
progressive and democratic forces, had unequivocally condemned the
aggression against Israel. Petro’s incoherent stance put him in stark
contrast with his global counterparts. Petro’s incoherence also put him
in stark contrast to other Latin American leaders, among them, Chile’s
Boric and Brazil’s Luiz Inácio “Lula” Da Silva, who categorically
condemned the mass terrorist attack on Israel – one that has claimed
more than 900 lives.
But Petro’s rhetoric didn’t stop with his verbose, self-aggrandizing
remarks. He went on to claim that Gaza is being “converted into a
concentration camp,” statement that reeks of historical ignorance and
offensive hyperbole. His analogy between the situation in Gaza and Nazi
concentration camps is not only historically inaccurate but deeply
offensive to the memory of Holocaust victims and survivors.
The World Jewish Congress’s words highlight the extent of Petro’s
biased historical rewrites. To invoke the Holocaust, an unparalleled
symbol of human suffering and evil, in the context of a contemporary
political dispute is not only insensitive but also reprehensible. It
reflects a dangerous disregard for history and an alarming willingness
to exploit the past for political protagonism.
In a challenging moment with the international community paying
tribute to the victims of the indiscriminate slaughter of Israelis – and
many foreign nationals – Gustavo Petro has embraced inflammatory
rhetoric, rejected moral clarity, and tarnished the reputation of
Colombia, at home and around the world. The country’s “progressive”
leader appears also willing to weaken his country’s relationship with
Israel, a long-standing friend and ally, to salvage misguided statements
and his social media platform.
Among the most stinging rebukes of Petro’s social media postings came
from the prominent Israeli politician Dani Dayan and chairman of Yad
Vashem – the memorial and museum in Israel dedicated to the memory of
the Holocaust. “President Gustavo Petro, as President of Yad Vashem, I
can affirm that you did not understand anything you saw in Auschwitz or
denied seeing it. You have the ignominious distinction of being the only
world leader, outside of Iran, to trivialize and deny the Holocaust in
such a manner.”
On Tuesday, social media feeds in Colombia erupted with the hashtag
#VergüenzaMundial (#WorldShame), reflection of the outrage Petro has
ignited among his fellow citizens. His shameful statements are not just a
stain on the country’s democratic integrity, but a perilous course that
threatens to cast Colombia alongside pariah states such as Iran and
Venezuela.
Adding to the gravity of the situation, on Saturday, vandals defaced
the entrance to the Israeli Embassy in Bogotá with swastikas, a Jewish
star and “terror” written in Hebrew. The words “Jerusalem is the capital
of Palestine,” “Arafat lives” and “Free Palestine” were also graffitied
along the Embassy’s white columns. Ambassador Dagan, in a caustic
statement on social media, referenced the vandalism, stating: “Look at
‘the solidarity’ we receive below at our [Embassy] installations.” Petro
also failed to condemn this hateful act, further highlighting his
indifference to antisemitism and intolerance.
Petro’s tweets are not a diplomatic blunder; they are a slap in the
face to the people of Israel who have endured decades of conflict and
terrorism. They are also a disservice to the countless innocent victims
of the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
Should Israel determine that it will no longer maintain diplomatic
relations with Colombia, it would be in its right to do so, especially
after Petro likened the Israeli military to Nazis in a tweet directed at
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. “Concentration camps are
prohibited by international law and those who develop them become
criminals against humanity,” stated Petro as Gallant explained the
extent of military’s operation against Hamas.
Petro’s repeated insults to the memory of the Holocaust is a betrayal
of the universal values the international community must uphold.
Failure to do so should generate strong condemnation from Colombia’s
closest allies, among them the U.S, Spain, Canada, United Kingdom,
Italy, Germany, France, but hopefully, remembering that the vast
majority of Colombians do uphold the universal values of respect and
human decency.
thegrayzone |After an Israeli reserve soldier named David Ben Zion told a
reporter Palestinian militants “cut [off] heads of babies,” Biden,
Netanyahu, and the international media amplified the dubious claim.
The Grayzone has identified Ben Zion as a fanatical settler leader
who incited riots by demanding a Palestinian town be “wiped out.”
An international outcry erupted when
Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced that Palestinian militants from the
besieged Gaza Strip had killed 40 “babies,” and beheaded several of them
during an incursion into Kfar Aza, a kibbutz on the Gaza border.
President Joseph Biden repeated the inflammatory claim during an October
10 White House Rose Garden address, while networks across the West carried the story without a shred of critical scrutiny.
According to CNN correspondent Nic Robertson, apparently citing Israeli military sources, Palestinian militants carried out, “ISIS-style executions,” in which they were “cutting the heads off of people,” including babies and pets.
The Grayzone has now identified a key
source of the claim that Palestinian militants beheaded Israeli babies.
He is David Ben Zion, a Deputy Commander of Unit 71 of the Israeli army
who also happens to be an extremist settler leader who incited violent
riots against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank earlier this year.
In an October 10 interview
with reporter Nicole Zedek of the Israeli state-sponsored i24 network,
Ben Zion stated, “We walked door to door, we killed a lot of terrorists.
They are very bad. They cut heads of children, they cut heads of women.
But we are stronger than them.”
He added, “We know that they are animals,” referring to Palestinians, “but we found that they don’t have any heart.”
Hours after his interview with i24,
still in the village of Kfar Aza, a uniformed Ben Zion could be seen
repeatedly grinning ear-to-ear in a video posted to his Facebook – an odd disposition for a supposed witness to the methodical butchering of babies.
Earlier that day, i24’s Zedek declared during a live report from Kfar Aza, “About
40 babies were taken out on gurneys… Cribs overturned, strollers left
behind, doors left wide open.’” Zedek’s report has been viewed tens of millions of times on Twitter and promoted by Israel’s Foreign Ministry – which underwrites her network.
Hours later, she qualified
her statement, stating, “Soldiers told me they believe 40
babies/children were killed. The exact death toll is still unknown as
the military continues to go house to house and find more Israeli
casualties.”
Yet the unverified tale quickly made
its way to the highest levels of leadership, as if by design. Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesman stated unequivocally that babies
and toddlers were found with their “heads decapitated,” while President
Joe Biden himself vaguely gestured towards “stomach-churning reports of
babies being killed.”
Likewise, cable news has flown into a frenzy, breathlessly reporting the story despite the IDF walking back its initial confirmation.
Meanwhile, some reporters who initially carried the official Israeli allegations about beheaded babies began issuing qualifications of their own.
Oren Ziv, an Israeli reporter who joined the military’s official tour of Kfar Aza, commented on Twitter,
“I’m getting a lot of question about the reports of ‘Hamas beheaded
babies’ that were published after the media tour in the village. During
the tour we didn’t see any evidence of this, and the army spokesperson
or commanders also didn’t mention any such incidents.”
theatlantic | Hamas’s surprise attack on
Israel has laid bare an uncomfortable truth: The fearsome reputation of
the Israeli military, like that of Israeli intelligence services, may be
overdue for a revision.
Israel
has an excellent air force and elite special-operations units, but its
conventional line units—made up mostly of conscripts—are neither
particularly well trained nor well disciplined by American standards.
These units are still demonstrably superior to those of Israel’s
adversaries from wars gone by, such as Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. But
today Israel faces highly disciplined and motivated nonstate foes in
southern Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and its military does
not seem to have a clear advantage over them at the unit level.
The
United States provides Israel roughly $3.8 billion a year in military
assistance. (Last year, only Ukraine received more.) That money allows
Israel to purchase expensive weaponry, such as F-35 aircraft, that it
would otherwise struggle to afford. The two countries review and agree
on the amount of aid every 10 years; when we signed our most recent
memorandum of understanding with Israel, in 2016, I was the Pentagon’s
senior representative, taking part in several months of negotiations in
Washington, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem. I had a chance to look under the
hood of the Israeli military, and I came away hugely impressed with the
Israeli officers with whom I worked. But I was also frankly worried
about what the next war might look like.
Even
then, Israeli military officials knew that the country was vulnerable
to infiltration operations, such as the one Hamas has just executed.
They judged Hezbollah likely to consider such tactics in any new clash.
Hamas itself had pulled off a similar operation in 2006, albeit on a
much smaller scale, when it kidnapped the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit,
whom it held captive for more than five years. Israel knew that more of
these kinds of attacks were coming, and yet somehow, it was caught
completely off guard when they did.
The
intelligence failure—which you can be sure Israelis will carefully
review—does not surprise me. Few Americans fully appreciate the trauma
that the Second Intifada, from 2000 to 2005, left behind. Israelis built
walls, both physical and mental, between themselves and their Arab
neighbors. I remember asking multiple Israelis in Jerusalem for
directions to Ramallah, a Palestinian city roughly 12 miles away, in
2009. None of them had any idea how to get there. The Palestinians were
both out of sight and out of mind, and after the ordeal of the preceding
years, that was precisely where many Israelis wanted them. But the
Palestinians never actually went anywhere. This lack of intimacy,
together with Hamas’s expulsion of other Palestinian factions from Gaza
in 2007, has surely hindered Israel’s ability to understand what is
going on inside Gaza.
More
worrying, and more structural, are the complacency and lack of
discipline that not only cost Israel in the opening stages of this new
war but will likely continue to do so. I spent almost three years in
Lebanon in the mid-2000s and wrote a doctoral dissertation on
Hezbollah’s evolution as a fighting force. The few Hezbollah fighters I
met in those days struck me, for the most part, as motivated, well
trained, and disciplined. Those who fought in the 2006 war with Israel
retained a certain amount of wary respect for the U.S. military but held
their Israeli adversaries in contempt. They had seen Israeli soldiers
in action—and had not been impressed.
Israel does an excellent job—arguably better than the U.S. military—of learning from its tactical and operational failures.
But the country’s semiprofessional military relies heavily on
conscripts and reservists, which places it at a disadvantage in many
respects. Full-time, professional militaries can dedicate themselves to
rehearsing collective tasks that high-intensity combat situations often
require: reacting to ambushes, conducting raids, incorporating artillery
and airpower into maneuvers. Conscript militaries, by contrast, are
forever bringing on and training new people. The turnover is often too
high to allow units to develop proficiency in the most complicated
military tasks.
Israel’s
conventional forces, moreover, seem to spend less time rehearsing
combined arms operations than they do policing the occupied territories.
Indeed, what few active-duty battalions Israel has appear to have been
deployed away from the south and to the West Bank to safeguard settlers
during the holiday. Such policing operations, in addition to pulling
needed units away from other priorities, are poor practice for more
high-intensity combat.
Many
Israelis in uniform look unkempt and even slovenly, which can be
somewhat charming—the contrast with, say, a U.S. Marine can be stark—but
the closer one looks, the more one wonders if such appearances betray a
certain nonchalance about the profession of arms. In nearly every war
Israel has fought since 1967—1973 and 2006 come most immediately to
mind—Israel’s armed forces have been slow out of the starting blocks.
Discipline is another issue: In 2006, Hezbollah was able to locate
Israeli positions by intercepting Israeli reservists calling home on
their mobile phones.
johnhelmer.net | In the first direct Russian warning
to the US Navy force in the Eastern Mediterranean, Zakharova added:
“So far we see that the situation is developing along the path of
escalation. There is a great risk of involving third forces in this
conflict. And this is fraught with long-term consequences for the region
and for the world.”
Putin followed in the evening on the telephone with the Turkish
President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The need for an immediate ceasefire by
both sides and the resumption of the negotiation process was
emphasised,” according to the Kremlin’s communiqué.
“Mutual readiness to actively contribute to this was expressed…Separate
issues of Russian-Turkish cooperation in various fields were also
touched upon.”
Erdogan’s press release
was more revealing. He and Putin had “touched upon what initiatives can
be taken to meet humanitarian needs in the region, as the Turkish
president told Putin that targeting civilian settlements is worrying and
Türkiye does not welcome such move.” Erdogan’s twitter announcement
adds: “President Erdoğan and President Putin of Russia also exchanged
views on potential initiatives to meet humanitarian needs in the
region.”
This is a hint that Erdogan and Putin are contemplating a Turkish
ship convoy of aid to Gaza, protected from Israeli attack by the Russian
Navy from its Tartous base on the Syrian coast, and by the Russian Air
Force from Hmeimim. This humanitarian operation by sea would aim at
breaking the blockade of the coast by the Israelis, and running the
gauntlet of the USS Gerald Ford and its squadron further offshore. If this operation, a reminder of the Gaza Flotilla of 2010,
is in planning now – the open signals are warning Washington and the
US Navy to expect it – then the confrontation, and the risk to the US
and Israel of strategic defeat at sea, are unprecedented.
The planning of Russian military protection of seaborne humanitarian aid convoys to the Gaza also extends to Egypt.
This was touched on in the conversation which Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry had with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. That was followed by Egyptian press disclosure
of Israeli warnings, following by bombings, to stop Egyptian trucks
delivering aid into Gaza across the Rafah land bridge at the southern
end of Gaza.
An alternative Egyptian option is a naval convoy. If this will be
coordinated through the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry with an
Erdogan-Putin plan of a Turkish convoy sailing from the north, the
escalation to regional and superpower level will have materialised
before the Israeli invasion of Gaza can preempt it.
The Russian Defense Ministry has not been silent towards Israel in
the past. Since the ambush by the Israel Air Force of the Russian Il-20
surveillance aircraft, and the killing of its 15-man crew in September
2018, the General Staff has said it has been reserving its moves against the Israelis while identifying them as the enemy.
Vzglyad, the Moscow platform for Russian military and security thinking, editorialised on April 17, 2023,
that in siding with the Ukraine during the Special Military Operation,
the Israeli government had become Russia’s adversary: “The time has come
to take a new position on the Palestinian issue. To take the
celebration of Al-Quds Day to a new level, as well as to take a more
pro-Palestinian position in the Middle East conflict. To stand on the
side of those who help Russia within the framework of their own
interests (Iran, Saudi Arabia) against those who help our enemies. And
thereby to send a very clear signal to the world – a signal that Russia
will treat its partners exactly as they treat it. To help supporters –
and not to act in the interests of opponents.”
The creation of a humanitarian corridor was explicitly mentioned in the Foreign Ministry briefing on Tuesday. “Tensions
are rising in the West Bank of the Jordan River. There are high risks
of the conflict spreading to the area of the Lebanese-Israeli border and
drawing new parties into it. A large-scale humanitarian catastrophe is
unfolding before our eyes. The main thing now is to cease fire and stop
the bloodshed. We support the efforts of interested parties aimed at
solving this priority task. This would make it possible to avoid new
victims, end the suffering of the civilian population, ensure its
evacuation through humanitarian corridors and prevent the situation from
sliding into a region-wide humanitarian catastrophe. This is not just a
crisis or an emergency. We are talking about the fate of millions of
people.”
Spokesman Zakharova also struck at the CIA and the Pentagon for their
surprise defeat by Hamas. “How did it happen that in a year; that’s how
much time the operation was being prepared for, then carried out now in
a few days, the United States as Israel’s closest ally did not warn
about this? They have satellites everywhere, appropriate tracking
devices, military bases, including in the region. There are all the
possibilities to carry out, not just monitoring, but surveillance — the
facts speak for themselves — of all information circulating on
American-made equipment (hardware and software). For the whole year of
preparing such a large-scale operation, the United States with all the
power of its special services did not transmit anything to Israel as
intelligence…How did it happen that during the whole year of preparation
of the corresponding operation in the Middle East, the United States
did not transmit any information to its partners in Israel?”
By contrast, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “for two months at
the end of 2021 and two months at the beginning of 2022, the United
States at all levels told how Russia would ‘attack’ Ukraine. This was
done specifically to create an information backdrop in order to divert
the eyes of the whole world from how, for all these years, the United
States and their NATO colleagues (primarily the United Kingdom) have
been pumping Ukraine with weapons and creating the anti-Russia project,
an anti-Russian springboard…After the corresponding instruction from
Washington, a multiple increase in the shelling of Donbass by the regime
of V.A. Zelensky followed. Then, in late 2021-early 2022, the US ‘knew
everything’ and told everyone. But in the area of their direct
responsibility — the Middle East has always been one of them — in
relation to the closest ally over which the American protectorate is
carried out, the US special services, the State Department and the White
House did not transmit any information necessary for self-defence.”
the cradle | Hamas did
not coordinate its military operation with any of its Resistance Axis
allies. It also did not plan to achieve the stunning results that were
soon to follow. The Qassam Brigades' immediate goal was only to destroy
Israeli army positions around the Gaza Strip and capture as many
soldiers as possible, which they could later exchange for the thousands
of Palestinian captives in Israeli prisons.
But
the Palestinian resistance forces were taken by surprise at the laxity
of the occupation army. Contrary to expectations, they stumbled upon
security vacuums and poorly guarded military sites in which a large
number of enemy soldiers and officers were fast asleep. It was this
unexpected opportunity that prodded the Palestinian fighters to reach
for bigger gains.
Hamas'
military leadership planned to carry out this operation in complete
secrecy. Just weeks earlier, their fighters had conducted military
maneuvers/exercises that were observed by the Israelis. But Tel Aviv's
rather complacent intelligence assessment had been that "Hamas is
training for what it does not dare to do." The Israelis, in short,
thought that Hamas was merely flexing in order to gain financial
concessions for Gaza. No actual operation was ever expected by Israel's
military brass.
The veil of
secrecy over the operation also extended to the Hamas fighters who
carried out the attack. Sources close to Hamas say that their cadres
believed, until the morning of the operation, that they were assembling
for a training exercise, not for the real thing.
Very
few knew details of the comprehensive attack plan. Even Hamas' allies
in Lebanon and Iran learned of the operation at zero o'clock and not a
moment before, according to well-informed sources in the Resistance
Axis.
Even
for this axis, the Hamas operation went beyond all possible
expectations. Although true that many of the Hamas tactics employed are
shared among the Axis' fighters in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen,
the innovation in the Al-Aqsa Flood operation was the signature of the
Al-Qassam Brigades, and particularly its brilliant leader Muhammad Deif.
The
operation was coordinated with remarkable professionalism: accurate and
detailed intelligence was amassed, high-level training exercises
organized, secrecy was paramount, and superior coordination was
established between the myriad drones, paratroopers, and vast majority
of Hamas fighters who crossed into the occupation state, through tunnels
and above ground.
Al Qassam also planned to target Israeli communications towers and all military sites surrounding Gaza. From
a military perspective, this was a near-perfect operation that led to
the destruction of all the facilities of the Israeli army's “Gaza
Division" and the annihilation of entire Israeli brigades. For Israel,
this was a total humiliation - something it had never experienced
before, even in the devastating 1973 Arab-Israeli war.
A zero-sum game
With
the support of the collective west, Israel is now assembling a plan to
restore its deterrence. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood didn't only affect the
Israelis - it has also endangered western deterrence throughout West
Asia and the Arab world. The decline in Israel's deterrent capacity
correlates directly with the weakening of western hegemony in the
region.
While
Israel has been scurrying around to mobilize its troops and equipment
for a counterattack, the Americans sent messages to the Resistance Axis -
specifically Iran and Hezbollah - saying, essentially: “We don’t want
this to escalate. We want and need stability on the Lebanese border with
Israel. We are urging you not to interfere in this war.”
The
messages were sent on 7 October, as events unfolded, and through more
than one medium. Hezbollah's response was seen on the ground the very
next morning, when it bombed Israeli army positions in the occupied
Lebanese Shebaa Farms. This was a warning message, which was clarified
further by Hezbollah's Executive Council Chief Hashem Safi Al-Din when
he said: “We will not remain neutral in this battle.”
Neither
will Washington, which immediately announced $8 billion in aid to
Israel, and sent an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
The US cannot afford for Israel to take more losses, but how far will
they go to deter Tel Aviv's adversaries?
Within
the axis of resistance, from Iran to Gaza, there is a uniform decision
to prevent the defeat of any of the principal allies. As this axis made
clear during the Syrian war, a major attack on one will be viewed as an
attack on all. Today, their red line is preventing the collapse of the
resistance in Gaza.
Israel's
urgent need to restore its deterrence is not, however, possible without
destroying Gaza's resistance factions. Both Netanyahu and Israeli
Defense Minister Yoav Galant have ominously warned that Tel Aviv’s
response to Gaza’s attack will “change the Middle East.” Those are
fighting words indeed: the US called for the birthing of a “new Middle
East” during Israel's month-long bombardment of Lebanon in July 2006.
Tel
Aviv and Washington want to take down the Palestinian resistance while
ensuring that no other battle fronts flare up to distract from that
mission. Of course, the Resistance Axis principals will seek to do
exactly the opposite, doing what is necessary to distract Israel from
its strategic objective.
ejmagnier | The ongoing conflict’s impact is deeply
felt in Israel’s economic and social fabric. On a single tumultuous day,
the Israeli stock market plunged by a staggering $13.5 billion, a sign
of growing investor anxiety. Adding to the economic strain, the local
currency has experienced a sharp decline.
But the impact isn’t limited to the
financial charts. On the ground, there’s a palpable sense of
desperation. A growing number of Israelis and foreigners are going to
the civilian airport, eager to escape the rising tensions. Their urgency
is heightened because many foreign airlines have suspended flights to
and from Israel. This mass departure highlights not only the immediate
dangers of the conflict, but also the more profound, lasting effects it
may have on Israel’s social morale and economic resilience. The recent
announcement of a US frigate’s support for Israel may seem significant.
However, in the grand scheme of things, its impact on boosting Israeli
morale appears minimal.
As the conflict intensifies, the recent
deployment of a US fleet supporting Israel has attracted some attention.
However, insiders within the Axis of Resistance have expressed
scepticism about the real impact of this move.
While the arrival of a US fleet is a
significant show of force, the strategic calculus of the situation is
more complicated. Israel, with its already formidable air capabilities,
has hundreds of aircraft and a powerful naval force. Adding 80 to 90
aircraft from the US carrier may not tip the balance as decisively as
one might think. The Axis of Resistance argues that the US intervention
won’t guarantee victory.
But the implications of this US military
support go beyond immediate tactical considerations. There’s a wider
geopolitical dimension at play. Any overt US intervention in the
conflict could have repercussions far beyond Israel’s borders. The US
maintains a significant military presence in Iraq, and these forces
could become targets if the US is perceived as intervening too directly
in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Resistance groups in Iraq have been
unequivocal in their warning: US bases in the region would be at risk of
retaliatory attacks.
Moreover,
the Hezbollah’s supersonic anti-ship missiles adds another layer of
complexity. These missiles, if deployed, have the potential to block
Israeli ports, effectively choking off a vital lifeline and adding a
naval dimension to the conflict. Such a move would further escalate the
situation, potentially drawing in other regional players and expanding
the theatre of operations.
The current conflict is deeply intertwined
with the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Any move
can have repercussions far beyond the immediate battlefield. The coming
days and weeks will reveal how these dynamics play out and whether the
region is on the brink of a more comprehensive and complex
confrontation.
The sources also criticised Prime Minister
Netanyahu’s approach, highlighting the targeting of civilian structures
in Gaza, including the residences of leaders, media personalities and
vital infrastructure. However, they believe that such anticipated
destruction is merely tactical. They believe these actions will not
weaken the resistance’s resolve or alter its strategic plan.
Israel’s recent military manoeuvres,
including the deployment of troop carriers, tanks and ground forces,
indicate a clear intention to launch a ground assault on Gaza. While the
scope of this incursion may not be limited, reminiscent of the 2014
ground operation that only penetrated a few hundred metres into Gaza,
its implications could be far-reaching.
In the face of these developments, the
involvement of the Axis of Resistance alliance becomes crucial. The need
for a united and cohesive multi-regional front is more urgent than
ever.
Inside sources have highlighted the
growing unity and strength of the ‘Axis allies’ in the face of the
Israeli military. They argue that the Israeli army, which traditionally
relies on air strikes to pave the way for ground operations, avoids
direct confrontation unless areas are pre-emptively cleared with
extensive bombing. The sources point to instances where Israeli forces
withdrew, leaving behind their war equipment when Palestinian militants
attacked their military barracks in the Gaza Strip encirclement.
Drawing parallels with the 2006 conflict,
the sources suggest that the Israeli army may face determined and fierce
resistance, similar to the combined forces it encountered in southern
Lebanon after the initial heavy bombardment.
The message is clear: if Israel persists
in its aggressive actions in Gaza, the united resistance bloc is ready
to offer comprehensive support, possibly opening several fronts. This
stance remains firm, regardless of threats from the West. Given the
current dynamics, sources no longer rule out the possibility of a
barrage of suicide drones entering the conflict launched from Lebanon,
Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The
Palestinian resistance in the settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip
remains unyielding. This continued defiance provides an insight into the
apparent indecision and inconsistency of the Israeli army. On the one
hand, they tell the 50,000 residents of the settlements to evacuate,
only to later reverse this order and ask them to stay put closed
indoors.
Haaretz | (archived) The
disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is the
clear responsibility of one person: Benjamin Netanyahu. The prime
minister, who has prided himself on his vast political experience and
irreplaceable wisdom in security matters, completely failed to identify
the dangers he was consciously leading Israel into when establishing a
government of annexation and dispossession, when appointing Bezalel
Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to key positions, while embracing a foreign
policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians.
Netanyahu
will certainly try to evade his responsibility and cast the blame on
the heads of the army, Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet security
service who, like their predecessors on the eve of the Yom Kippur War,
saw a low probability of war with their preparations for a Hamas attack proving flawed.
They
scorned the enemy and its offensive military capabilities. Over the
next days and weeks, when the depth of Israel Defense Forces and
intelligence failures come to light, a justified demand to replace them
and take stock will surely arise.
However,
the military and intelligence failure does not absolve Netanyahu of his
overall responsibility for the crisis, as he is the ultimate arbiter of
Israeli foreign and security affairs. Netanyahu is no novice in this
role, like Ehud Olmert was in the Second Lebanon War. Nor is he ignorant
in military matters, as Golda Meir in 1973 and Menachem Begin in 1982
claimed to be.
Netanyahu
also shaped the policy embraced by the short-lived “government of
change” led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid: a multidimensional effort
to crush the Palestinian national movement in both its wings, in Gaza
and the West Bank, at a price that would seem acceptable to the Israeli
public.
In
the past, Netanyahu marketed himself as a cautious leader who eschewed
wars and multiple casualties on Israel’s side. After his victory in the
last election, he replaced this caution with the policy of a
“fully-right government,” with overt steps taken to annex the West Bank, to carry out ethnic cleansing in parts of the Oslo-defined Area C, including the Hebron Hills and the Jordan Valley.
This
also included a massive expansion of settlements and bolstering of the
Jewish presence on Temple Mount, near the Al-Aqsa Mosque, as well as
boasts of an impending peace deal with the Saudis in which the
Palestinians would get nothing, with open talk of a “second Nakba” in
his governing coalition. As expected, signs of an outbreak of
hostilities began in the West Bank, where Palestinians started feeling
the heavier hand of the Israeli occupier. Hamas exploited the
opportunity in order to launch its surprise attack on Saturday.
Above
all, the danger looming over Israel in recent years has been fully
realized. A prime minister indicted in three corruption cases cannot
look after state affairs, as national interests will necessarily be
subordinate to extricating him from a possible conviction and jail time.
This
was the reason for establishing this horrific coalition and the
judicial coup advanced by Netanyahu, and for the enfeeblement of top
army and intelligence officers, who were perceived as political
opponents. The price was paid by the victims of the invasion in the Western Negev.
al-jazeera | Since World War II, the US has vied to achieve two main foreign policy objectives in the Middle East:
Control the region and its resources and prop-up its allies (often
dictators), while maintaining a degree of “stability” so that the US is
able to conduct its business unhindered.
Nevertheless, Israel remained on the warpath. Wars that Israel couldn’t fight on its own required American intervention on Israel’s behalf, as was the case in Iraq.
The outcome was disastrous for US foreign policy. Even hardened
military men began noticing the destructive path their country had
chosen in order to defend Israel.
In March 2010, General David Petraeus, then head of the US Central Command told
the Senate Armed Services Committee during a testimony that Israel had
become a liability for the US and that has become a challenge to
“security and stability”, which his country aimed to achieve.
He said: “Israeli-Palestinian tensions often flare into violence and
large-scale armed confrontations. The conflict foments anti-American
sentiment, due to a perception of US favouritism for Israel. Arab anger
over the Palestinian question limits the strength and depth of US
partnerships with governments and peoples in the AOR (Area of
Operations) and weakens the legitimacy of moderate regimes in the Arab
World. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda and other militant groups exploit that anger
to mobilise support.”
Although speaking strictly from a US military interest, the Israeli
lobby attacked Petraeus almost immediately. Abe Foxman, Director of the
Anti-Defamation League (ADL), which often mischaracterises its role as
that of combating racism in the US lashed out at the top American commander calling his conclusions “dangerous and counterproductive.”
That spectacle alone demonstrated that Israel’s power in the US has grown tremendously through time.
In the US, no one is immune to Israeli criticism, including the
president himself, who is expected to accommodate Israeli whims, without
expecting any Israeli reciprocation.
A particularly telling episode revealed the degree of Israeli
influence in the US, when then-House Speaker John Boehner plotted with
then-Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Ron Dermer to arrange a visit
and a speech before Congress for Netanyahu, in defiance of President
Obama.
Netanyahu then raged and raved before a united Congress (with a few
exceptions) that repeatedly endowed the Israeli prime minister with many
standing ovations as he belittled their president and strongly
criticised US foreign policy on Iran.
Obama felt isolated as if a target of a political coup; a few Democrats fumbled in a disorganised press conference to respond to Netanyahu’s accusations, but they were certainly the tiny minority.
That spectacle alone demonstrated that Israel’s power in the US has
grown tremendously through time from a “client regime”, to a “partner”.
But how did Israel achieve such commanding influence over US foreign policy?
WSJ | Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel
and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last
Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another
Iran-backed militant group.
Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.
Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.
U.S.
officials say they haven’t seen evidence of Tehran’s involvement. In an
interview with CNN that aired Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken
said: “We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind
this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.”
“We don’t have any information at this time to corroborate this account,” said a U.S. official of the meetings.
A
European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however,
gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack
as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members.
Asked
about the meetings, Mahmoud Mirdawi, a senior Hamas official, said the
group planned the attacks on its own. “This is a Palestinian and Hamas
decision,” he said.
How the Hamas Attack on Israel Unfolded
A
spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the Islamic
Republic stood in support of Gaza’s actions but didn’t direct them.
“The
decisions made by the Palestinian resistance are fiercely autonomous
and unwaveringly aligned with the legitimate interests of the
Palestinian people,” the spokesman said. “We are not involved in
Palestine’s response, as it is taken solely by Palestine itself.”
A
direct Iranian role would take Tehran’s long-running conflict with
Israel out of the shadows, raising the risk of broader conflict in the
Middle East. Senior Israeli security officials have pledged to strike at
Iran’s leadership if Tehran is found responsible for killing Israelis.
The
IRGC’s broader plan is to create a multi-front threat that can strangle
Israel from all sides—Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and
Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, according to the senior Hamas and
Hezbollah members and an Iranian official.
timesofindia | NEW DELHI: Israel carried out deadly air strikes and pounded hundreds of locations in Gaza on Sunday, a day after suffering its bloodiest attack in decades when Hamas fighters rampaged through Israeli towns, killing hundreds and abducting an unknown number of others, threatening a major new war in the Middle East.
Across the Middle East, there were demonstrations in support of Hamas while Iran and Hezbollah praised the attack.
Western countries, led by the United States, have denounced the attack by Hamas, while President Joe Biden issued a blunt warning to Iran and other countries: "This is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks."
Israel pounds Gaza after deadly Hamas raid as conflict threatens to spiral
Osama Hamdan, Hamas leader in Lebanon, said Saturday's operation should make Arab states realise that accepting Israeli security demands would not bring peace. Our guns and rockets are with you: Hezbollah tells Hamas
In a sign the conflict could quickly spread beyond Gaza, Israeli artillery responded to mortar fire from Lebanon and drone strikes hit a post of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia along Israel's northern border on Sunday.
Hezbollah said in a statement that it had carried out a rocket and artillery attack on three posts including a "radar site" in the Shebaa Farms, a slice of land occupied by Israel since 1967 that Lebanon claims. Israel responded with artillery fire on southern Lebanon. There were no reports of casualties.
Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine said his group's "guns and rockets" were with Hamas. "Our history, our guns and our rockets are with you. Everything we have is with you," Safieddine said at an event in the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh on Beirut's outskirts in solidarity with the Palestinian fighters.
Hezbollah and Israel exchange fire as Israeli soldiers battle Hamas on second day of surprise attack
Hezbollah fought a war with Israel in 2006 and tensions have regularly flared since.
"We recommend Hezbollah not to come into this and I don't think they will," Israel's army spokesperson said.
Taliban fighters to join Palestine conflict?
Meanwhile, some media reports also stated that the Taliban regime in Afghanistan has requested the Iranian and Iraqi governments to provide safe passage to its fighters so they can join the conflict in Palestine. Most of the reports have cited a social media account on X by the name 'Taliban Public Relations Department'. The authenticity of the social media account has not been verified.
Several media reports have cited a Taliban spokesperson who denied that any such request had been sent to Iran or Iraq.
Ever since storming to power in Kabul after US troops pulled out in August 2021, the Taliban has been attempting -- with little success -- to train its fighters to use US military hardware that has been left behind. The fighters are, however, well armed.
More than $7.1 billion in US-funded military equipment was in the possession of the Afghan government when it fell to the Taliban in August 2021, according to a Defense Department report. Though more than half of it was ground vehicles, it also included more than 316,000 weapons plus ammunition and other accessories.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, meanwhile, said the assault that began in Gaza will spread to the West Bank and Jerusalem. Gazans have lived under an Israeli blockade for 16 years, since Hamas seized control of the territory in 2007.
Why is al-Aqsa at the centre of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
In a speech, Haniyeh highlighted what he called threats to Jerusalem's al-Aqsa Mosque, a site that is also holy to Jews who know it as the Temple Mount, the continuation of Israel's blockade on Gaza and Israeli normalisation with countries in the region.
"How many times have we warned you that the Palestinian people have been living in refugee camps for 75 years, and you refuse to recognise the rights of our people?"
WSJ | As
explosions rang out and bullets flew over Tamir Erez’s home in Mefalsim
near the Gaza Strip border, he said he kept asking himself, “Where is
the Israeli military?” He fled town with his children holding their
heads down so they couldn’t see the bodies of dead Israelis killed by
Palestinian militants.
“It will take a long time for us to recover from this day,” Erez said.
Israel’s failure to anticipate an attack Saturday
that left hundreds of soldiers and civilians dead and militants
rampaging through villages punctured a sense of invincibility built on
its vaunted military and intelligence apparatus. It left the world
questioning what went wrong and Israel’s leaders facing pressure to
retaliate with overwhelming force.
The assault came as Israel faces its most difficult series of threats
in the decades since what remains the country’s greatest security
failure, the Yom Kippur War, the surprise attack launched 50 years ago
this week by Egyptian and Syrian forces.
Iran has provided unprecedented coordination
among the forces of several militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza
and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and stoked deadly conflict in the West Bank,
putting Israel at risk on three fronts.
Using
rockets, paragliders, motorcycles, pickup trucks, and boats, Hamas
militants from the Gaza Strip launched a coordinated attack that showed
an unexpected level of sophistication.
Israeli
forces appeared to be caught completely by surprise as Hamas militants
in Gaza used bulldozers to tear down the security fence with Israel and
streamed into the country.
How Israel’s Iron Dome works
Interception
The missile destroys the incoming rocket by exploding near it.
Launcher
Each has 20 interceptor missiles
with an in-built radar seeker
Mobile control Unit
Analyses trajectory, estimates impact point and commands launch of interceptor missile
Radar
Identifies rocket shell
Source: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems
“Clearly
this was a well-planned operation that didn’t just emerge overnight and
it’s surprising it was not detected by Israel or any of its security
partners,” said Brian Katulis, vice president of policy at the Middle
East Institute think tank in Washington. “It’s hard to think of a
security failure of this magnitude in Israel’s recent history.”
Israeli security leaders had played down the threat from Hamas
in recent months, as the group abstained from conflicts started by its
smaller ally in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad. There was a sense that
Israel, with its Iron Dome air defense systems, had rendered ineffective
Gaza’s main threat of short-range rockets.
Last
month, the Israeli military confidently characterized Gaza as being in a
state of “stable instability,” suggesting that the dangers posed by
Hamas militants were largely contained.
Recent
Israeli intelligence assessments of Hamas were that the militant group
had shifted its focus to trying to stoke violence in the West Bank and
that it was looking to avoid launching major attacks from Gaza in an
effort to avoid the kinds of punishing Israeli military responses that
have devastated the isolated area in the past.
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