He says "it's obvious that the conflict, started as a limited
territorial war and escalating to a global economic confrontation,
between the whole of the West on the one hand and Russia and China on
the other hand, has become a world war."
He believes that "Putin made a big mistake early on, which is [that] on
the eve of the war [everyone saw Ukraine] not as a fledgling democracy,
but as a society in decay and a “failed state” in the making. [...] I
think the Kremlin's calculation was that this decaying society...
... would crumble at the first shock. But what we have discovered, on
the contrary, is that a society in decomposition, if it is fed by
external financial and military resources, can find in war a new type of
balance, and even a horizon, a hope."
He says he agrees with Mearsheimer's analysis of the conflict:
"Mearsheimer tells us that Ukraine, whose army had been overtaken by
NATO soldiers (American, British and Polish) since at least 2014, was
therefore a de facto member of the NATO, and that the Russians had...
... announced that they would never tolerate Ukraine in NATO. From their
point of view, the Russians are therefore in a war that is defensive
and preventive. Mearsheimer added that we would have no reason to
rejoice in the eventual difficulties of the Russians because...
...since this is an existential question for them, the harder it would
be, the harder they would strike. The analysis seems to hold true."
He however has some criticism for Mearsheimer:
"Mearsheimer, like a good American, overestimates his country. He
considers that, if for the Russians the war in Ukraine is existential,
for the Americans it is basically only one 'game' of power among others.
After Vietnam...
...Iraq and Afghanistan, what's one more debacle? The basic axiom of
American geopolitics is: 'We can do whatever we want because we are
sheltered, far away, between two oceans, nothing will ever happen to
us'. Nothing would be existential for America.
Insufficient analysis which today leads Biden to proceed mindlessly.
America is fragile. The resistance of the Russian economy is pushing the
American imperial system towards the precipice. No one had expected
that the Russian economy would hold up against the 'economic power'...
...of NATO. I believe that the Russians themselves did not anticipate it.
If the Russian economy resisted the sanctions indefinitely and managed
to exhaust the European economy, while it itself remained, backed by
China, American monetary and financial controls of the world......would collapse, and with them the possibility for United States to
fund their huge trade deficit for nothing. This war has therefore become
existential for the United States. No more than Russia, they cannot
withdraw from the conflict, they cannot let go.
This is why we...... are now in an endless war, in a confrontation whose outcome must be the collapse of one or the other."
He firmly believes the US is in decline but sees it as bad news for the autonomy of vassal states:
"I have just read a book by S. Jaishankar, Indian Minister of Foreign
Affairs (The India Way), published just before the war, who sees
American weakness, who knows that the......confrontation between China and the US will have no winner but will
give space to a country like India, and to many others. I add: but not
to Europeans. Everywhere we see the weakening of the US, but not in
Europe and Japan because one of the effects of the retraction of......the imperial system is that the United States strengthens its hold on
its initial protectorates. As the American system shrinks, it weighs
ever more heavily on the local elites of the protectorates (and I
include all of Europe here).
The first to lose all national autonomy...... will be (or already are) the English and the Australians. The
Internet has produced human interaction with the US in the Anglosphere
of such intensity that its academic, media and artistic elites are, so
to speak, annexed. On the European continent we are somewhat...... protected by our national languages, but the fall in our autonomy is
considerable, and rapid. Let's remember the Iraq war, when Chirac,
Schröder and Putin held joint anti-war press conferences."
He underlines the importance of skills and education: "The US is now
twice as populated as Russia (2.2 times in student age groups). But in
the US only 7% are studying engineering, while in Russia it is 25%.
Which means that with 2.2 times fewer people studying, Russia trains......30% more engineers. The US fills the gap with foreign students, but
they're mainly Indians and even more Chinese. This is not safe and is
already decreasing. It is a dilemma of the American economy: it can only
face competition from China by importing skilled Chinese labor."
On the ideological and cultural aspects of the war: "When we see the
Russian Duma pass even more repressive legislation on 'LGBT propaganda',
we feel superior. I can feel that as an ordinary Westerner. But from a
geopolitical point of view, if we think in terms of...... soft power, it is a mistake. On 75% of the planet, the kinship
organization was patrilineal and one can sense a strong understanding of
Russian attitudes. For the collective non-West, Russia affirms a
reassuring moral conservatism."
He continues: "The USSR had a certain form of soft power [but] communism
basically horrified the whole Muslim world by its atheism and inspired
nothing particular in India, outside of West Bengal and Kerala. However,
today, Russia which repositioned itself as the archetype......of the great power, not only anti-colonialist, but also patrilineal
and conservative of traditional mores, can seduce much further. [For
instance] it's obvious that Putin's Russia, having become morally
conservative, has become sympathetic to the Saudis who I'm sure have
a......bit of a hard time with American debates over access for transgender women in the ladies' room.
Western media are tragically funny, they keep saying, 'Russia is
isolated, Russia is isolated'. But when we look at the votes at the UN,
we see that 75% of the world does not......follow the West, which then seems very small.
With an anthropologist reading of this [divide between the West and the
rest] we find that countries in the West often have a nuclear family
structure with bilateral kinship systems, that is to say where male and
female kinship......are equivalent in the definition of the social status of the child.
[Within the rest], with the bulk of the Afro-Euro-Asian mass, we find
community and patrilineal family organizations. We then see that this
conflict, described by our media as a conflict of political......values, is at a deeper level a conflict of anthropological values. It
is this unconscious aspect of the divide and this depth that make the
confrontation dangerous."
cjhopkins | The Mother of All Limited Hangouts has begun. Yes, I’m talking about
the “Covid Twitter Files,” which are finally being released to the
public, in almost textbook limited-hangout fashion. I’ll get into that
in just a minute, but first, let’s review what a “limited hangout” is,
for those who are not familiar with the term.
The way a limited
hangout works is, if you’re an intelligence agency, or a global
corporation, or a government, or a non-governmental organization, and
you have been doing things you need to hide from the public, and those
things are starting to come to light such that you can’t just deny that
you are doing them anymore, what you do is, you release a limited part
of the story (i.e., the story of whatever it is you’re doing) to
distract people’s attention from the rest of the story. The part you
release is the “limited hangout.” It’s not a lie. It’s just not the
whole story. You “hang it out” so that it will become the whole story,
and thus stop people from pursuing the whole story.
Victor
Marchetti, a former special assistant to the Deputy Director of the CIA
who went on to become a critic of the Intelligence Community, described the tactic this way in 1978 …
“…
a favorite and frequently used gimmick of clandestine professionals.
When their veil of secrecy is shredded and they can no longer rely on a
phony cover story to misinform the public, they resort to admitting,
sometimes even volunteering, some of the truth while still managing to
withhold the key and damaging facts in the case. The public, however, is
usually so intrigued by the new information that it never thinks to
pursue the matter further.”
All right, so, you’re
probably asking, if the “Covid Twitter Files” are a limited hangout,
what’s the whole story that they’re distracting us from?
Let me try to refresh your memory.
In
March and April of 2020, in the course of roughly five to six weeks,
the majority of societies throughout the world were transformed into
pathologized-totalitarian police states. A global “shock-and-awe”
campaign was conducted. Constitutional rights were suspended. The masses
were locked down inside their homes, where they were subjected to the
most massive official propaganda blitzkrieg in human history. Goon
squads roamed the streets of Europe, the USA, the UK, Canada, Australia,
Asia, the Americas, and elsewhere, beating and arresting people for
being outdoors without permission and not wearing medical-looking masks.
Corporate media around the world informed us that life as we knew it
was over … a “new normal” was coming, and we needed to get used to it.
The
entire official pandemic narrative was rolled out during those first
few weeks. Everything. Masks. Mandatory “vaccines.” “Vaccination”
passports. The segregation of “the Unvaccinated.” The censorship and
demonization of dissent. Everything. The whole “New Normal” package. It
was rolled out all at once, globally.
"As well as enforcing quarantine measures, the law also allows the authorities to force people to be vaccinated, even though there is currently no vaccination for the virus." https://t.co/xejemRbdmO
That is the story. How that happened. Why that
happened. And who or what made it happen. It isn’t a story about a
virus, or our governments’ reactions to a virus. It is the story of the
radical restructuring of society based on lies and official propaganda,
executed, globally, through sheer brute force and
systematic psychological conditioning. It is the story of the
implementation of our new totalitarian global-capitalist “reality” … the
“New Normal” that was announced in the Spring of 2020. It is not a
story the global-capitalist ruling classes can permit to be told, except
by “crazy conspiracy theorists,” “science deniers,” and other
“crackpots” and “extremists.”
All right, so … the
“Covid Twitter Files,” or the “Fauci Files,” or whatever we’re calling
them. If you wanted to bury the actual story (i.e., the story I just
outlined above) with a limited hangout and discredit those of us who
have been trying to report it for nearly three years, you couldn’t do
any better than Elon Musk is doing. Instead of a story about how the
entire global-capitalist power apparatus coordinated with global IT
corporations like Twitter, Facebook, Google, et al., to conduct a global
Gleichschaltungop
the scale of which Goebbels could have never dreamed of, censoring and
visibility-filtering dissent and enforcing the official pandemic
narrative, not just in the USA, but in countries all throughout the
world … instead of that monumental story, we are getting The Alex Berenson Show!,
starring Alex Berenson as Alex Berenson, with a special guest
appearance by Alex Berenson, written and directed by Alex Berenson, and
so on.
Brownstone | Contrary to popular belief that pharmaceutical companies drove the
COVID vaccine development programs, the US FDA’s website (FDA, 2020)
reveals that the United States Department of Defence (DoD) has been in
full control of the Covid Vaccine development program since its
beginning. The DoD has been responsible for development, manufacturing,
clinical trials, quality assurance, distribution and administration,
since that time (FDA, 2020; Rees and Latypova, 2022; KEI, 2022; Medical
Defense Consortium, 2022; Rees, 2022). The major pharmaceutical
companies have been involved as “Project Coordination Teams” effectively
performing as subcontractors to the DoD. The Chief Operating Officer
for the Warp Speed vaccine program is the US Department of Defence, and
the Chief Science Advisor is the US Department of Health and Human
Services (HHS).
The Nature of Gene-based Vaccines
The true nature of the COVID-19 ‘vaccines’ has been largely
misrepresented by mainstream media, big pharmaceutical companies and
governments and is poorly understood by the population at large.
Referring to these products as “vaccines” led most people to consider
them as relatively safe and well-researched and readily accept their
widespread use. However, they are not really vaccines – they are serious
gene-based interventions which have never been deployed widely in any
population, especially never to healthy individuals including children,
infants and pregnant women. In this sense they should be considered
experimental.
COVID-19 ‘vaccines’ fall into a special class of therapeutic agents
under the US FDA Office of Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies’ defined
as “gene therapy products,” which involve “introducing a new or modified
gene into the body to help treat a disease” (FDA, 2018). Heretofore,
use of gene therapy products has been limited to the treatment of
usually rare, serious and debilitating disease or genetic conditions.
They have potential to cause permanent intergenerational genetic damage,
cancer and interfere with reproductive capacity.
The FDA and other drug regulatory agencies have specific rules and
guidelines to direct manufacturers in development and testing of such
products, for both preclinical (FDA, 2013) and clinical (FDA, 2015)
research. However, the FDA did not evaluate these COVID-19 “vaccines”
according to these gene therapy guidelines.
Instead, there was a concerted effort to avoid referring to them as
gene therapy products, based, in part, on the argument that the genetic
material in the COVID-19 vaccines was not intended to be incorporated
into an individual’s DNA, nor to modify gene expression. There was no
prior short-term safety information and no long-term data on which to
predict future effects. No similar therapeutic products have been
previously approved anywhere in the world. Their widespread
administration globally with no historical safety experience was an
unprecedented risk in human health.
Accelerating Development
Messenger RNA platform technology has been researched by DARPA
(Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency) since at least 2012
(McCullough, 2022). In early 2020, in the panic to develop the COVID-19
vaccines, certain critical research and development procedures were
omitted, bypassed, curtailed, or not done in a logical sequential
manner, or to established laboratory or manufacturing standards.
Although the spike protein is the active drug and is directly
responsible for the immune response, its pharmacology and toxicology
have not been studied in animals or in humans as would normally have
been required.
Other notable deficiencies include lack of critical research on
carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, genotoxicity and reproductive toxicology
in appropriate animal species. In particular, the potential for reverse
transcription of mRNA genetic material into an individual’s DNA was not
investigated. Furthermore, scale-up manufacturing was premature and
lacked adequate quality control to ensure that product made in large
batches is the same as made in smaller batches.
Without such research, the potency, mRNA integrity, presence of
contaminants and stability of the “vaccines” cannot be guaranteed. Such
oversights are directly responsible for the failure to predict the
serious adverse drug reactions and mortality which have now been
reported in association with these vaccines.
To mitigate risk, the plan in vaccine development was to use multiple
technologies, multiple facilities and redundancy. Leverage of existing
facilities would also take place. In the interest of expediency, the
plan was to avoid using traditional pathways from early development to
large-scale production. Avoidance of quality standards and guidelines
such as Good Manufacturing Practice and Good Laboratory Practice
guidelines was necessary to speed development, and conventional New Drug
Application (NDA) and Biologics License Application (BLA) approvals
were bypassed.
Instead, the process moved rapidly using compressed timelines and
overlapping stages of development towards Emergency Use Authorization
(EUA). Scale-up and large volume manufacturing was planned in parallel
with, instead of before, clinical trials which, again, may have
contravened accepted codes of Good Manufacturing Practices. These
approaches were probably a recipe for potential disaster. (Latypova,
2022; Watt and Latypova, 2022).
MoA | On Monday CBS launched a story about classified papers found
in a former office of president Biden. I am curious why the story came
out and why it came out now.
Attorney General Merrick Garland has assigned the U.S.
attorney in Chicago to review documents marked classified that were
found at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement in
Washington, two sources with knowledge of the inquiry told CBS News. The
roughly 10 documents are from President Biden's vice-presidential
office at the center, the sources said. CBS News has learned the FBI is
also involved in the U.S. attorney's inquiry.
The material was identified by personal attorneys for Mr. Biden on
Nov. 2, just before the midterm elections, Richard Sauber, special
counsel to the president confirmed. The documents were discovered when
Mr. Biden's personal attorneys "were packing files housed in a locked
closet to prepare to vacate office space at the Penn Biden Center in
Washington, D.C.," Sauber said in a statement to CBS News.
The story was kept under the wraps for more than two month. Biden's
lawyers, who allegedly found the documents, informed the National
Archive which took possession them the next day. It then informed the
Attorney General who assigned a U.S. attorney and involved the FBI.
That is at least how the story is told.
But I am curious on how much back and forth there was between Biden's
lawyers and the White House after the find. That the lawyers did not
ask Biden or his handlers how to proceed with the documents before
informing the National Archive can be excluded. The alleged find was
easy to hide. The National Archive is said to not have known anything
about the documents. The lawyers were bound by their attorney client
privilege that would have prohibited them from talking about the issue.
By informing the National Archive, which then involved others, it was
made inevitable that someone would let the media know about this.
So why weren't those documents just burned up? Why not avoid the scandal that has now been reinforced by a second find of such documents, this time in a garage at Biden's home in Wilmington? Who made these decisions?
Biden is not an honest man when it comes to political issues. He is not a stranger to covering things up.
The decision to let this out, to not cover it up, is so far
unexplained. The whole thing can only hurt Biden. It also disables the
Democrats of using Trump's withholding of classified papers as a weapon
against him.
Was it the very special content of the classified documents that made
this move necessary? Or is there something else that we do not yet know
about? Something that led to the judgment that the current limit
hangout of some dirty linen is better than to have a real scandal come
to the public's knowledge.
politico | Since
the end of the Cold War, the Arctic has largely been free of visible
geopolitical conflict. In 1996, the eight countries with Arctic
territory formed the Arctic Council, where they agreed to environmental
protection standards and pooled technology and money for joint natural
resources extraction in the region. Svalbard, Europe’s northernmost
inhabited settlement, just 700 miles south of the North Pole, perfectly
represents this spirit of cooperation. While a territory of Norway, it
is also a kind of international Arctic station. It hosts the KSAT
Satellite Station, relied on by everyone from the U.S. to China; a
constellation of some dozen nations’ research laboratories; and the
world’s doomsday Seed Vault (where seeds from around the world are
stored in case of a global loss in crop diversity, whether due to
climate change or nuclear fallout). Svalbard, where polar bears
outnumber people, is considered a demilitarized, visa-free zone by 42
nations.
But today, this Arctic desert is rapidly becoming the center of a new conflict. The vast sea ice that covers the Arctic Ocean is melting rapidly due to climate change, losing 13 percent per decade — a rate that experts say could make the Arctic ice-free in the summer as soon as 2035.
Already, the thaw has created new shipping lanes, opened existing
seasonal lanes for more of the year and provided more opportunities for
natural resource extraction. Nations are now vying for military and
commercial control over this newly accessible territory — competition
that has only gotten more intense since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
For
the past two decades, Russia has been dominating this fight for the
Arctic, building up its fleet of nuclear-capable icebreakers, ships and
submarines, developing more mining and oil well operations along its
15,000 miles of Arctic coastline, racing to capture control of the new
“Northern Sea Route” or “Transpolar Sea Route” which could begin to open
up by 2035, and courting non-Arctic nations to help fund those
endeavors.
At
the same time, America is playing catch-up in a climate where it has
little experience and capabilities. The U.S. government and military
seems to be awakening to the threats of climate change and Russian
dominance of the Arctic — recently issuing a National Strategy for the
Arctic Region and a report on how climate change impacts American
military bases, opening a consulate in Nuuk, Greenland, and appointing
this year an ambassador-at-large for the Arctic region within the State
Department and a deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and
Global Resilience. America’s European allies, too, have been rethinking
homeland security, increasing national defense budgets and security
around critical energy infrastructure in the Arctic as they aim to boost
their defense capabilities and rely less on American assistance.
But
17 Arctic watchers — including Norwegian diplomats, State Department
analysts and national security experts focusing on the Arctic — said
they fear that the U.S. and Europe won’t be able to maintain a grip on
the region’s energy resources and diplomacy as Russia places more
civilian and military infrastructure across the Arctic, threatening the
economic development and national security of the seven other nations
whose sovereign land sits within the Arctic Circle.
Even
as the U.S. says it has developed stronger Arctic policies, five
prominent Arctic watchers I spoke with say that the U.S. government and
military are taking too narrow a view, seeing the Arctic as primarily
Alaska and an area for natural resource extraction, but not as a key
geopolitical and national security battleground beyond U.S. borders.
They say the U.S. is both poorly resourced in the Arctic and unprepared
to deal with the rising climate threat, which will require new kinds of
technology, training and infrastructure the U.S. has little experience
with. Several U.S. government officials involved in Arctic planning told
me in private they also fear a nuclear escalation in the Arctic, which
would threaten to engulf Europe and its allies in a larger conflict.
“We’re
committed to expanding our engagement across the region,” one of those
officials, granted anonymity to speak candidly about a tense
geopolitical region, told me, “but we’re not there yet.”
“The
[Defense] Department views the Arctic as a potential avenue of approach
to the homeland, and as a potential venue for great power competition,”
America’s new deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and
Global Resilience, Iris A. Ferguson, wrote me in an email. Ferguson
described Russia as an “acute threat” and also outlined fears that
China, a “pacing threat” was seeking “to normalize its presence and
pursue a larger role in shaping Arctic regional governance and security
affairs.” (China has contributed to liquid natural gas projects and
funded a biodiesel plant in Finland as part of its Belt and Road
Initiative now reaching the Arctic.)
indianpunchline | Sweden’s (or Finland’s) NATO membership isn’t exactly round the
corner. Sweden is either unable or unwilling to fulfil Turkiye’s
demands. Besides, there are variables at work here.
Most
important, the trajectory of the current Russian-brokered rapprochement
between Ankara and Damascus will profoundly impact the fate of the
Kurdish groups in the region — and the Kurdish-US axis in Syria.
Washington has warned Erdogan against seeking rapprochement with
President Bashar Al-Assad.
What
complicates matters further is that presidential and parliamentary
elections are due in Turkiye in June and Erdogan’s political compass is
set. Any change in his calculus can only happen in the second half of
2023 at the earliest.
Now, 6 months is a long time in West Asian politics. Meanwhile, the Ukraine war will also have phenomenally changed by summer.
Finland
is ready to wait till summer, but Sweden (and the US) cannot. The heart
of the matter is that Sweden’s NATO membership is not really about the
war in Ukraine but is about containing the Russian presence and strategy
in the Arctic and North Pole. There is a massive economic dimension to
it, too.
Thanks to
climate change, the Arctic is increasingly becoming a navigable sea
route. The expert opinion is that nations bordering the Arctic (eg.,
Sweden) will have an enormous stake in who has access to and control of
the resources of this energy- and mineral-rich region as well as the new
sea routes for global commerce the melt-off is creating.
It
is estimated that forty-three of the nearly 60 large oil and
natural-gas fields that have been discovered in the Arctic are in
Russian territory, while eleven are in Canada, six in Alaska [US] and
one in Norway. Simply put, the spectre that is haunting the US is: “The
Arctic is Russian.”
War
games show that the capacity to wage war effectively will be
constrained by resource depletion. Because of this fact, some state will
seek the "advantage" of carrying out sooner and pre-emptively what's
inevitably beyond that signpost up ahead.Al Jazeera |
Russia has warned that military conflicts over energy resources could
erupt along its borders in the near future, as the race to secure oil
and gas reserves gains momentum.A
Kremlin policy paper, which maps out Russia's main challenges to
national security for the next decade, said "problems that involve the
use of military force cannot be excluded" in competition for resources.The
National Security Strategy's release coincides with a deadline for
countries around the world to submit sea bed ownership claims to a
United Nations commission, including for the resource-rich Arctic.The
paper, signed off by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, says
international relations in the next 10 years will be shaped by battles
over energy reserves."The
attention of international politics in the long-term perspective will
be concentrated on the acquisition of energy resources," it said. "Amid
competitive struggle for resources, attempts to use military force to
solve emerging problems can't be excluded."The existing balance of forces near the borders of the Russian Federation and its allies can be violated," it added.The
document said regions including the Middle East, the Barents Sea, the
Arctic, the Caspian Sea and Central Asia could all be at the centre of
competing claims for resources.Russia,
the world's biggest natural gas producer, has already accused the
United States, with which it shares a small sea border, of coveting its
mineral wealth.But
Moscow is also finding its control over natural gas exports under
threat, as the European Union seeks alternative supply routes that would
bypass Russia and the Ukraine.The
country is also embroiled in a territorial dispute with Norway over
claims to the Arctic sea bed, where around 25 per cent of the world's
untapped reserves are believed to lie underneath the ice.
Russia is determined to make decisive and successive decisions to anchor its rights for the oil and gas-rich water area of the Arctic Ocean. The secretary of the Russian Security Council, the former director of the Federal Security Bureau, Nikolai Patrushev, said yesterday that President Dmitry Medvedev ordered the government to develop a detailed plan of Russia’s state policy in the Arctic region before December 1, 2008.
“We must ensure Russia’s national interests in the Arctic region for a long-term perspective,” Medvedev said at the meeting of the council. “Our first and fundamental goal is to turn the Arctic into Russia’s resource base of the 21st century.
“We must defend our interests, although we realize that Arctic states – Canada , Norway, Denmark and the USA – will also be defending their interests,” Mr. Patrushev said.
“First and foremost, Russia must designate the borderline in the Arctic south. We name the number of 18 percent of our territory and say that 20,000 kilometers is the state border in this region,” the Secretary of the Security Council said.
“There are many problems here. It is not about coming to the Arctic to find natural resources there only,” the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yuri Osipov said. “All these resources will be very hard to extract. The traditions of Russia ’s presence in the Arctic zone were formed long ago, so the future development of the territory must have the scientific platform involved,” he added.
Russian polar explorers give the government credit for its interest in the problems of the northern region. However, many of them have serious questions to ask.
“Judging upon the experience of our expeditions, I know that the protection of the Russian state borders leaves much to be desired,” the chief of the Marine Arctic Complex Expedition, Pyotr Boyarsky told The Vremya Novostei newspaper. The scientist and his colleagues believe that Russia should create a ring of specially protected territories in the Arctic, which will help Russia defend its rights on the Arctic .
“The international community treats the status of such territories with great respect. Their appearance in the Russian Arctic sector will be a much more important argument than political or economic claims, Mr. Boyarsky said.
German daily Die Zeit wrote that the struggle for the Arctic may become the zone, where world’s leading superpowers will collide.
Russia accused of annexing the Arctic for oil reserves by CanadaThe
battle for "ownership" of the polar oil reserves has accelerated with
the disclosure that Russia has sent a fleet of nuclear-powered ice
breakers into the Arctic.It has reinforced fears that Moscow intends to annex "unlawfully"
a vast portion of the ice-covered Arctic, beneath which scientists
believe up to 10 billion tons of gas and oil could be buried. Russian
ambition for control of the Arctic has provoked Canada to double to $40
million (£20.5 million) funding for work to map the Arctic seabed in
support its claim over the territory.The
Russian ice breakers patrol huge areas of the frozen ocean for months
on end, cutting through ice up to 8ft thick. There are thought to be
eight in the region, dwarfing the British and American fleets, neither
of which includes nuclear-powered ships.Canada
also plans to open an army training centre for cold-weather fighting at
Resolute Bay and a deep-water port on the northern tip of Baffin
Island, both of which are close to the disputed region. The country's
defence ministry intends to build a special fleet of patrol boats to
guard the North West Passage."The
message from Vladimir Putin is that Russia will no longer be shackled
to treaties signed by Yeltsin when he was half drunk or when Russia was
on its knees," Russia
rivals Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer and is
estimated to have the largest natural gas supplies. Energy earnings are
funding a $189 billion (£97 billion) overhaul of its armed forces.
scheerpost | The U.S., having no need of or gift for
statecraft, has long practiced what I’ve taken to calling the diplomacy
of no diplomacy. You can’t expect much from bimbos such as Antony
Blinken or Wendy Sherman, Blinken’s No. 2 at the State Department. All
they can do is roar, even if they are mice next to any serious
diplomat.
But have the European powers now followed along? I fear to ask because I fear the answer. But I must, given recent events.
Early last year, when Petro Poroshenko stated publicly that the
post-coup regime in Kyiv had no intention of abiding by diplomatic
commitments it made in 2014-15 to a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine
crisis, a few eyebrows arched, but not over many. Who was the former
Ukrainian president, anyway? I had him down from the first as a
self-interested dummkopf who did what Washington told him to do and nothing more, no shred of statesmanship about him.
It was another matter when, in early December, Angela Merkel admitted
in back-to-back interviews that the European powers were up to the same
thing. The objective of diplomatic talks in late 2014 and early 2015,
the former German chancellor told Der Spiegel and Die Zeit, was not, as
they had pretended, a framework for a federalized Ukraine in the cause
of a lasting peace between its hostile halves: It was to deceive the
Russians to give Kyiv time to prepare for a military assault on the
Russian-speaking provinces in the east, whose people had refused to
accept the U.S.–orchestrated coup that brought compulsively Russophobic
Nazi-inflected nationalists to power in February 2014.
Merkel’s revelations came as a shock, of course. But I contrived to
mark down her comments as an inadvertent indiscretion in the autumn of a
long-serving leader’s years. Merkel made her remarks more or less in
passing. There was no boasting in them. She did not seem proud of her
duplicity.
Now François Hollande weighs in. A few days before the year ended,
the former French president gave a lengthy interview to The Kyiv
Independent. In it he made the Franco–German position perfectly clear:
Yes, Merkel and I lied to the Russians when we negotiated the Minsk I
and Minsk II Protocols in September 2014 and February 2015. No, we never
had any intention of making Kyiv observe them or otherwise enforcing
them. It was a charade from the first and—the part of this interview
that truly galls—Hollande advanced this as wise, sound statesmanship.
Let us count the betrayals we must assign to the hapless Hollande and the inconstant Merkel.
The betrayal of Russia and its president will go without saying. It
is a matter of record that Vladimir Putin, who participated directly in
the Minsk talks, worked long, long hours in the cause of a settlement
that would leave Ukraine stable and unified, a freestanding post–Soviet
republic on the Russian Federation’s southwestern order.
Here I will remind readers of the animosity Putin expressed in his
New Year’s address, three days after Hollande described the
Franco–German sting operation in detail:
The West lied to us about peace while preparing for aggression,
and today, they no longer hesitate to openly admit it and to cynically
use Ukraine and its people as a means to weaken and divide Russia.
strategic-culture | But was the destruction of Russia always the main strategic U.S. aim?
Is the objective not – rather – to ensure the survival of the financial
and associated military structures, both U.S. and international, that
permit huge profits and the transfer of global savings to accrue to the
western security ‘Borg”? Or, simply put, the preservation of the
dominance of U.S. financial hegemony.
As Oleg Nesterenko writes
“this survival is simply impossible without military-economic, or more
precisely, military-financial world domination. The concept of survival
at the expense of world domination was clearly articulated at the end of
the Cold War by Paul Wolfowitz, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defence, in
his so-called Wolfowitz Doctrine, which viewed the United States as the
only remaining superpower in the world and whose main goal was to
maintain that status: “to prevent the reappearance of a new rival either
in the former Soviet Union or elsewhere that would be a threat to the
order previously represented by the Soviet Union””.
The point here is that though the logic of the situation would seem
to demand an U.S. pivot from an unwinnable Ukraine war to a ‘move’ to
another ‘threat’, in practice the calculus is likely more complicated.
The celebrated military strategist Clausewitz, made a clear
distinction between what we now call ‘wars of choice’ and what the
latter termed ‘wars of decision’ – the latter being existential
conflicts, by his definition.
The Ukraine war generally is assumed to fall into the first category
of ‘a war of choice’. But is this right? Events have unfolded far from
as expected in the White House. The Russian economy has not collapsed –
as smugly predicted. President Putin’s support stands high at 81%; and
collective Russia has consolidated around Russia’s wider strategic
objectives. Furthermore, Russia is not isolated globally.
Essentially, Team Biden may have indulged in jaundiced thinking –
projecting onto today’s very different, culturally Orthodox Russia,
opinions that they formed during the earlier era of the Soviet Union.
May it be that Team Biden’s calculus then, has had to shift with the
dawning understanding of these unforeseen outcomes. And especially, the
exposure of the American and NATO military challenge as being inferior
to its reputation?
This was a fear Biden actually exposed
in his White House meeting during the Zelensky visit before Christmas.
Would NATO survive such candour? Would the EU remain intact? Grave
considerations. Biden said he had spent hundreds of hours speaking with
EU leaders to mitigate these risks.
More to the point, would western markets survive such candour? What
happens if Russia, over the winter months, brings Ukraine to the verge
of system collapse? Will Biden and his strongly anti-Russian
administration simply throw up their hands and concede victory to
Russia? Based on their maximalist rhetoric and commitment to Ukrainian
victory, that appears unlikely.
The point here is that markets remain highly volatile as the West
stands at the cusp of a recessionary contraction that the IMF has warned
likely will cause fundamental damage to the global economy. That is to
say, the U.S. economy resides poised at the most sensitive of moments –
at the edge of a possible financial abyss.
Might not Biden ‘going explicit’ that sanctions on Russia are not
likely to be reversed; that supply-line disruption will persist; and
that inflation and interest rates will be heading higher, be sufficient
to push markets ‘over the edge’?
These are unknowns. But the anxiety touches on U.S. ‘survival’ – that is to say, the survival of the dollar hegemony.
Reuters | Kyiv
expects the European Union to include Russian state nuclear energy
company Rosatom in its next round of sanctions over the war in Ukraine,
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday.
Shmyhal
said after talks in Kyiv with Frans Timmermans, a vice-president of the
European Union's executive European Commission, that Russia's nuclear
energy industry should be punished over the invasion of Ukraine more than 10 months ago.
Russia
has occupied the Zaporizhzia nuclear power station in southeastern
Ukraine since last March and President Vladimir Putin issued a decree
last October transferring control of the plant from Ukrainian nuclear energy company Energoatom to a subsidiary of Rosatom. Kyiv says the move amounts to theft.
"We
are actively working with our European partners on providing support in
four areas: demilitarisation of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, supply of
electrical equipment, opportunities to import electricity from the EU,
and sanctions against Russia," Shmyhal wrote on the Telegram messaging
app.
"We
expect that the 10th package (of EU sanctions) will contain
restrictions against Russia's nuclear industry, in particular Rosatom.
The aggressor must be punished for attacks on Ukraine's energy industry
and crimes against ecology."
Although the EU has progressively tightened sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, it has not imposed sanctions directly on Rosatom.
The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations' nuclear
power watchdog, has repeatedly expressed concern over shelling of the
Zaporizhzhia plant, which each side blames on the other.
The
IAEA has also proposed the establishment of a nuclear safety and
security protection zone around what is Europe's largest nuclear power
plant.
Shmyhal
also said he and Timmermans, the EU's climate policy chief, had agreed
that Ukraine's post-war reconstruction should be based on green
principles.
He
thanked Timmermans for an initiative to start a strategic partnership
between Ukraine and the EU "in the field of renewable gases" but gave no
details.
express.co.uk | French President Emmanuel Macron is said to be in a "panic" as the issues with France's ageing nuclear reactors have laid bare the flaws in the country's energy
plans, an expert has told Express.co.uk. Sixteen out France's 56
nuclear reactors are currently offline due to corrosion and maintenance
issues, sending its normal power output levels plummeting in recent
months. Prior to these problems, France's nuclear fleet generated 70
percent of the country's electricity.
According to Dr Paul Dorfman, a nuclear expert from the University of
Sussex, France's "chickens are coming home to roost" as the decision to
rely so heavily on nuclear is appearing to backfire, with further
delays to repairs also announced this week.
He
said: "France was nuclear power excellence, post-war all buffed up with
power - it said it was going to be the top dogs. So it had a vast
quantity of nuclear reactors dotted all around France. But what is
happening now is that its chickens are coming home to roost.
"EDF
(owned by the French state) is 43billion euros in debt, it faces a
100billion euro bill for mandatory safety upgrades, and a significant
number of its reactors continue to be offline due to ageing corrosion
problems. It also faces a huge decommissioning and waste management bill
that is uncosted - they are just beginning to say 'oh my god'.
"Around
a quarter of their reactors are still offline at winter when they
really need it. They are even importing power from Germany after being a
net exporter. France is panicking about what to do about renewables and
insulation."
But all this could be of concern for Britain, which does rely on some
French imports that are sent across the Channel via interconnectors.
National Grid has previously warned that if the UK fails to shore up
enough energy imports from Europe this winter, it may have to roll out
organised blackouts in the "deepest, darkest" nights of the coldest
months of the year.
However, while France's nuclear power issues
have sparked concern, Dr Dorfman said the UK is luckier than France in
that it is one of the leading players in offshore wind, which could
provide a vital lifeline this winter.
He said: "The UK has
seriously thought about renewables in the last few years, without any
question. But there have been problems with onshore wind and legislation
issues. There also problems with the legislation for solar, but
offshore wind has helped enormously. But the UK hasn't really considered
about the lowest hanging through which is energy efficiency and
insulation."
When asked whether the UK is lucky that it has not
copied the French model, Dr Dorfman responded: "We are hugely lucky.
France is in a catastrophic situation in terms of the vast debt that it
owes in nuclear and the existential waste and decommissioning problem
that it is facing...The UK is certainly in a better position in terms of
offshore windpower, but it needs to get its act together in terms of
allowing much greater onshore wind and much greater solar...and all the
things that make up a balanced energy portfolio.
Indianpunchline | “From an overall strategic perspective, it is hard to emphasise
enough the devastating consequences if Putin were to be successful in
achieving his objective of taking over Ukraine. This would rewrite
international boundaries in a way that we have not seen since World War
II. And our ability to reverse these gains and to support and stand by
the sovereignty of a nation, is something that resonates not just in
Europe, but all around the world.”
The cat is out of the bag, finally — the US is fighting in Ukraine to preserve its global hegemony. Coincidence or not, in a sensational interview
in Kiev, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov also blurted out
in the weekend that Kiev has consciously allowed itself to be used by
NATO in the bloc’s wider conflict with Moscow!
To
quote him, “At the NATO Summit in Madrid (in June 2022), it was clearly
delineated that over the coming decade, the main threat to the alliance
would be the Russian Federation. Today Ukraine is eliminating this
threat. We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding
their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply
us with weapons.”
Reznikov,
an ex-Soviet army officer, claimed that he personally received holiday
greeting cards and text messages from Western defense ministers to this
effect.The stakes couldn’t be higher, with Reznikov also asserting that
Ukraine’s NATO membership is a done thing.
Indeed, on Saturday, Pentagon announced
the Biden Administration’s single biggest security assistance package
for Ukraine so far from the Presidential Drawdown.Evidently, the Biden
Administration is pulling out all the stops. Another UN Security Council
meeting has been scheduled for Jan. 13.
But Putin has made it clear
that “Russia is open to a serious dialogue – under the condition that
the Kiev authorities meet the clear demands that have been repeatedly
laid out, and recognise the new territorial realities.”
As for the war, the tidings from Donbass are extremely worrisome. Soledar is in Russian hands
and the Wagner fighters are tightening the noose around Bakhmut, a
strategic communication hub and lynchpin of Ukrainian deployments in
Donbass.
On the other
hand, contrary to expectations, Moscow is unperturbed about sporadic
theatrical Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia. The Russian public
opinion remains firmly supportive of Putin.
The commander of the
Russian forces, Gen. Sergey Surovikin has prioritised the fortification
of the so-called ‘contact line,’ which is proving effective against
Ukrainian counterattacks.
Pentagon is unsure
of Surovikin’s future strategy. From what they know of his brilliant
success in evicting NATO officers from Syria’s Aleppo in 2016, siege and
attrition war are Surovikin’s forte. But one never knows. A steady
Russian build-up in Belarus is underway. The S-400 and Iskander missile
systems have been deployed there. A NATO (Polish) attack on Belarus is no longer realistic.
On January 4, Putin hailed the New Year with the formidable frigate Admiral Gorshkov carrying
“cutting-edge Zircon hypersonic missile system, which has no analogue,”
embarking on “a long-distance naval mission across the Atlantic
and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean Sea.”
presstv | Gen. Soleimani did see the Big Picture all across West Asia, from
Cairo to Tehran and from the Bosphorus to the Bab-al-Mandeb. He
certainly foresaw the inevitable “normalization” of Syria in the Arab
world – and even with Turkey, now a work in progress.
He arguably
had imprinted in his brain the possible timeline followed by the Empire
of Chaos to completely ditch Afghanistan – though certainly not the
extent of the humiliating retreat – and how that would reconfigure all
bets from West Asia to Central Asia.
What he certainly didn’t know
was that the Empire left Afghanistan to concentrate all its Divide and
Rule/strategy of chaos bets on Ukraine, in a lethal proxy war against
Russia.
It’s easy to see Gen.Soleimani foreseeing Abu Dhabi’s
Mohammad bin Zayed (MbZ), MbS’s mentor, placing his bets simultaneously
on an Israel-Emirates free trade deal and a détente with Iran.
He
could have been part of the diplomatic team when MbZ’ssecurity advisor
Sheikh Tahnoonmet with President Raisi in Tehran over a year ago, even
discussing the war in Yemen.
He could also have foreseen what took
place this past weekend in Brasilia, on the sidelines of the dramatic
return of Lula to the Brazilian presidency: Saudi and Iranian officials,
in neutral territory, discussing their possible détente.
As the
whole chessboard across West Asia is being reconfigured at breakneck
speed, perhaps the only developmentGen.Soleimani would not have foreseen
is the petro-yuan displacing the petrodollar “in the space of three to
five years”, as suggested by Chinese President Xi Jinping in his recent
landmark summit with the GCC.
I have a dream
The
profound reverence towards Gen. Soleimani expressed by every layer of
Iranian society – from the grassroots to the leadership – has certainly
translated into honoring his life’s work by finding Iran’s deserved
place in multipolarity.
Iran is now solidified as one of the key
nodes of the New Silk Roads in Southwest Asia. The Iran-China strategic
partnership, boosted by Tehran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO)in 2002, is as strong geoeconomically and
geopolitically as the interlocking partnerships with two other BRICS
members, Russia and India. In 2023, Iran is set to become a member of
BRICS+.
In parallel, the Iran/Russia/China triad will be deeply
involved in the reconstruction of Syria – complete with BRI projects
ranging from the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Eastern Mediterranean railway to, in
the near future, the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, arguably the key
factor that provoked the American proxy war against Damascus.
Soleimaniis
today revered at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, at the al-Aqsa mosque
in Palestine, at the dazzling late baroque Duomo in Ragusa in southeast
Sicily, at a stupa high in the Himalayas, or a mural in a street in
Caracas.
All across the Global South, there’s a feeling in the
air: the new world being born – hopefully, more equal and fair - was
somehow dreamed of by the victim of the murder that unleashed the Raging
Twenties.
In November, it was searched by the secret police and its abbot,
archimandrite Paul, and the monastics were aggressively mistreated on
the pretext of looking for evidence of political activity hostile to the
regime. The junta then proceeded to draft a law that would ban church
entities suspected of having ties with foreign ecclesiastical centres, a
measure clearly aimed at the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which
is in communion with the Patriarchy of Moscow and commands the loyalty
of the majority of the population.
🇺🇦 Today in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, a man entered the Church of the Intercession of the Mother of God and cut the priest’s throat. Father Anthony is in intensive care now. pic.twitter.com/1BvKJDKpAE
— 🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉 (@apocalypseos) January 3, 2023
Hesitant to overplay its hand and seize at once Ukraine’s holiest
religious shrine, the junta has perfidiously adopted a gradualist
approach, choosing instead an intermediate solution that should not
alarm unduly the war- and terror-weary public. Arbitrarily and without
explanation it has closed off the Monastery’s upper floors, decreeing
that December 31, 2022, would be the last day that the Ukrainian
Orthodox Church would be allowed to conduct religious services there.
Needless to say, none of these outrages have been noted or condemned
by the human rights and rule of law watchdogs of the collective West.
And how could they possibly have been, given that the perpetrators are
their own Ukrainian puppets? Public admission of such foul deeds would
demolish the mendacious narrative fabricated to misrepresent those thugs
as champions of freedom and democracy.
There is a compelling argument that the persecution of the Orthodox
Church in Ukraine is not just a local project but part of a broader
scheme, executed in every instance on instructions by the same external
decision-making centres. The giveaway is the ultimatum of the Baltic
statelets to their local Orthodox churches, which also are in communion
with the Moscow Patriarchy, to either sever ties or face repercussions.
Such concerted assaults on the freedom of conscience had not been seen
even at the height of the cold war. Nor had it occurred to any of the
Western governments which were at war with Germany to demand of their
local Roman Catholic hierarchies to either sever ties with the Vatican,
which was located in the territory of Axis belligerent Italy, or be
placed outside the law. But that is exactly what did occur to them now.
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