japantimes | After years of paying limited attention to academic and media
warnings about the declining birthrate, aging population and complaints
from the rest of the country about the overconcentration of people and
resources in Tokyo, political and corporate leaders in Japan were jolted
by the conclusions of a 2014 book by Hiroya Masuda, a former Iwate
prefectural governor and head of a government committee on local
revitalization.
“Local Extinctions,” Masuda’s detailed report of population changes,
used the latest official figures from the government’s National
Institution of Population and Social Security Research to show that 896
cities, towns and villages throughout Japan were facing extinction by
2040. At first glance, the book simply repeated what earlier reports had
concluded. However, it also included the percentages by which
child-bearing women between the ages of 20 and 40 were expected to
decline in each and every city, town and village.
The latter figures, in particular, caught the eye of a large number
of people, especially politicians, bureaucrats and corporate leaders who
were, predominately, elderly men already worried about the declining
birthrate. The grim predictions forced everyone, though, to ask old
questions with new urgency: As the population shrinks, who will give
birth to the next generation of voters? Without new mothers, where will
the next generation of taxpayers, business leaders and customers come
from? And if too many localities become extinct, what will happen to all
of those Tokyo-based firms that rely on the rest of the nation to stay
in business?
“Local Extinctions” became a best-seller, and spawned a number of
books and magazines on the same issue. All raised fundamental, and yet
very practical, questions about the country’s political and social
future. Before looking at some of those questions, though, let’s take a
look at the position Japan is to be in a quarter century from today,
using both Masuda’s book and official government data.
In 2014, the population of Japan was just under 127 million. By 2040,
it’s expected to drop to about 107 million and, by 2050, it will be
around 97 million.
