theatlantic | Saudi Arabia produces much of its
electricity by burning oil, a practice that most countries abandoned
long ago, reasoning that they could use coal and natural gas instead and
save oil for transportation, an application for which there is no
mainstream alternative. Most of Saudi Arabia’s power plants are
colossally inefficient, as are its air conditioners, which consumed 70
percent of the kingdom’s electricity in 2013. Although the kingdom has
just 30 million people, it is the world’s sixth-largest consumer of oil.
Now,
Saudi rulers say, things must change. Their motivation isn’t concern
about global warming; the last thing they want is an end to the
fossil-fuel era. Quite the contrary: they see investing in solar energy
as a way to remain a global oil power.
The Saudis burn about a quarter of the oil they produce—and their
domestic consumption has been rising at an alarming 7 percent a year,
nearly three times the rate of population growth. According to a widely
read December 2011 report by Chatham House, a British think tank, if
this trend continues, domestic consumption could eat into Saudi oil
exports by 2021 and render the kingdom a net oil importer by 2038.
That outcome would be cataclysmic for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s
political stability has long rested on the “ruling bargain,” whereby the
royal family provides citizens, who pay no personal income taxes, with
extensive social services funded by oil exports. Left unchecked,
domestic consumption could also limit the nation’s ability to moderate
global oil prices through its swing reserve—the extra petroleum it can
pump to meet spikes in global demand. If Saudi rulers want to maintain
control at home and preserve their power on the world stage, they must
find a way to use less oil.
Solar, they have decided, is an obvious alternative. In addition to
having some of the world’s richest oil fields, Saudi Arabia also has
some of the world’s most intense sunlight. (On a map showing levels of
solar radiation, with the sunniest areas colored deep red, the kingdom
is as blood-red as a raw steak.) Saudi Arabia also has vast expanses of
open desert seemingly tailor-made for solar-panel arrays.
Solar-energy prices have fallen by about 80 percent in the past few
years, due to a rapid increase in the number of Chinese factories
cranking out inexpensive solar panels, more-efficient solar technology,
and mounting interest by large investors in bankrolling solar projects.
Three years ago, Saudi Arabia announced a goal of building, by 2032, 41
gigawatts of solar capacity, slightly more than the world leader,
Germany, has today. According to one estimate, that would be enough to
meet about 20 percent of the kingdom’s projected electricity needs—an
aggressive target, given that solar today supplies virtually none of
Saudi Arabia’s energy and, as of 2012, less than 1 percent of the
world’s.
