Friday, January 23, 2015

can't forget kuntsler's recent take on this either


Clusterfuck Nation | Events are moving faster than brains now. Isn’t it marvelous that gasoline at the pump is a buck cheaper than it was a year ago? A lot of short-sighted idiots are celebrating, unaware that the low oil price is destroying the capacity to deliver future oil at any price. The shale oil wells in North Dakota and Texas, the Tar Sand operations of Alberta, and the deep-water rigs here and abroad just don’t pencil-out economically at $45-a-barrel. So the shale oil wells that are up-and-running will produce for a year and there will be no new ones drilled when they peter out — which is at least 50 percent the first year and all gone after four years.
Anyway, the financial structure of the shale play was suicidal from the get-go. You finance the drilling and fracking with high-yield “junk bonds,” that is, money borrowed from “investors.” You drill like mad and you produce a lot of oil, but even at $105-a-barrel you can’t make profit, meaning you can’t really pay back the investors who loaned you all that money, a lot of it obtained via Too Big To Fail bank carry-trades, levered-up on ”margin,” which allowed said investors to pretend they were risking more money than they had. And then all those levered-up investments — i.e. bets — get hedged in a ghostly underworld of unregulated derivatives contracts that pretend to act as insurance against bad bets with funny money, but in reality can never pay out because the money is not there (and never was.) And then come the margin calls. Uh Oh….
In short, enjoy the $2.50-a-gallon fill-ups while you can, grasshoppers, because when the current crop of fast-depleting shale oil wells dries up, that will be all she wrote. When all those bonds held up on their skyhook derivative hedges go south, there will be no more financing available for the entire shale oil project. No more high-yield bonds will be issued because the previous issues defaulted. Very few new wells (if any) will be drilled. American oil production will not return to its secondary highs (after the 1970 all-time high) of 2014-15. The wish of American energy independence will be steaming over the horizon on the garbage barge of broken promises. And all, that, of course, is only one part of the story, because there is the social and political fallout to follow.
The table is set for the banquet of consequences. The next chapter in the oil story is more likely to be scarcity rather than just a boomerang back to higher prices. The tipping point for that will come with the inevitable destabilizing of Saudi Arabia, which I believe will happen this year when King Abdullah ibn Abdilaziz, 91, son of Ibn Saud, departs his intensive care throne for the gloriousJannah of virgins and feasts. Speaking of feasts, just imagine how the Islamic State (or ISIS) must be licking its chops at the prospect of sweeping over an Arabia no longer defined as Saudi! The Saudis are so spooked that they announced plans last week for a kind of super Berlin-type wall to be constructed along the northern border with Iraq. But that brings to mind a laughable Maginot Line scenario in which the masked invaders just make an end run around the darn thing. In any case, Saudi Arabia will already be disintegrating internally as competing clans and princes vie for control. And then, what will the US do? Rush in there shock-and-awe style? Bust up the joint? That’ll make things better, won’t it? (See American Sniper.)

20 comments:

BigDonOne said...

BD is pretty excited about it, too...
Start at 0:30 in the video---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9-WlXOeaBo

Dale Asberry said...

Please be sure to use the wipes to clean off your keyboard...

Vic78 said...

No consequences? It looks like promotions are in order. The DA from Staten Island may run for Congress and he's polling very well.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/city-hall/2015/01/8560544/dccc-polls-potential-donovan-challengers

CNu said...

lol, I must say, your flow was extra good this morning bruv. It's not like it's at all hard to find and consolidate flows that speak the unconscious and subconscious (at least to the mass or popular consensus) zeitgeist, but for us both separated by several hundred miles to come to the same intersection at the same time - is truly remarkable.

The takeaway from this is not that our RSS feeds are synchronized, because they're not. Rather, when you witness coinciding gestalts, well, then, you've had a little taste of that faithful transmission of information (overstanding) of information heedless of the conventional limitations of space and time. It's not, after all, for no reason that the phenomenon is called tele-pathy.

The digital aether just so happens to be a very convenient gymnasium for the exercise and documentation of these liminal flows of information and awareness..., when, that is, you choose to utilize it in that capacity.

BigDonOne said...

Here's another one, **75 who didn't get the message about consequences of pointing guns at cops -- Graphic Video http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/01/24/shock-footage-shows-moment-police-officer-fired-gun-killing-armed-man-during-foot-chase/

CNu said...

lol, sho's you right BD. When you point guns at cops, you best be sure you're set, that the gun is heavy enough to penetrate body armor, and that you have enough of them pointing all at once http://subrealism.blogspot.com/2014/04/cliven-bundy-and-homeland-security.html

Running in sagging pants, with a ratchet, low caliber saturday night special, that you've never practiced on the range, or in combat simulations with, is a guaranteed hunting license for an overseer to bag you!

Dale Asberry said...

Dawn, what CNu is telling you is that you best be prepared when you descend that mineshaft full 'o juicy goodies just ripe for the pickin's...

Dale Asberry said...

Listening with a quiet mind, my friend.

Dale Asberry said...

Plus, I've been going heavy on nutraceutical anti-inflammatories lately. Primarily fish oil, turmeric with a more moderate dosage of magnesium and a careful dosage of calcium+vitamin D.

BigDonOne said...

As sheriff in the earlier video states, "...if you surrender peacefully, that's the way we prefer it...". With even a shred of FTO, dude would have been back on the street right now, with a court date for which he (of course) wouldn't show up...

Vic78 said...

Dawn, you know how you sound at times? You sound like your booty leaks Vaseline. "If everybody were a bitch like me the world would be a better place."

BigDonOne said...

Sorry Vic but it's best to just stick to the facts, such as---> http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/01/24/world/science-health-world/genes-may-contribute-criminal-behavior/#.VMP-3f7F-So

Vic78 said...

So, you could be genetically predisposed to submit to a strong man. Does your wife know about your cock sucking?

ken said...

To dig a little deeper BD what do you feel would should be the ramifications if it is found that through genetics one is predisposed to violent or aggressive behavior? For instance with your genetics push would you buy into this idea?

“A fundamental principle of the American criminal justice system is that punishment for a crime should be proportional to the blameworthiness of the individual who committed that crime” (Evansburg, 2001). Assertions such as this argue that not all criminals are created equal and not all criminal offenders should receive the same punishment for the same crime based solely on genetic makeup and mental capacity. People who commit crimes and are proven to be mentally incapable of discerning between right and wrong should be judged and sentenced using less harsh tactics as in the case of a “normal,” mentally sound individual. A genetic predisposition toward violence that significantly impairs the ability to control behavior is an unforeseen circumstance in which the United States Sentencing Commission affords a judge the authority to impose individual sentences when they deem justified. Evansburg (2001) also points out the fact that the guidelines set by the Sentencing Commission purport to serve justice by imposing similar sentences for similar crimes; but when similar acts of violence are committed by individuals with dissimilar capacities for self-control, justice is not served by assigning them equal blame, and thus, equal punishment. If two offenders with different genetic characteristics commit the same crime, the responsibilities of the two offenders would be different and their sentences should reflect that difference."

BigDonOne said...

Your above described consternations would be temporary during the transition period. After which, people with unacceptable genetics would be deleted at the Embryo Stage. In fact, such deletions are already on-going voluntarily on a large scale among the FTO-challenged---> http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/nyc-more-black-babies-killed-abortion-born

CNu said...

lol, BD didn't read the single repudiating comment appended to the japantimes article on which he hung his velostat hat. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/01/24/world/science-health-world/genes-may-contribute-criminal-behavior/#comment-1814968032 Geneticist Dr. Jan Schnupp, university of oxford, heavily criticises the research stating that up to half the population has either gene.

With results suggesting only 5 to 10% of violent crime in Finland, a country with relatively low crime rates and stable economy, can be linked to either gene suggests that they have VERY little influence on crime causation and that socioeconomic factors such as inequality, poverty and social disorganization are by far the contributing factors.

USA is wealthy and developed but the gap between the rich and poor is massive as stated by Wilson and Picket 2009 study "The Spirit Level", and a primary cause of crime. So when Tiihonen says that the Finnish results cant be generalized to "poor countries" he isn't really supporting his work.

BigDonOne said...

There are a lot of hyper-egos at stake in the arena of world-class PRR. Dr.Schnupp is probably just sore that he didn't figure it out first, and likely never looked at the study data in detail. These conflicts are typically resolved down the road by subsequent studies seeing whose results survive additional scrutiny. That's how professional reputations are made (and lost).

Gene-violence relationships are clearly established in dogs, ask any breeder. The corresponding picture in humans will ultimately be established. While you are at it, to fully make your week-end, view the dash-cam video of a BLACK cop shooting an unarmed black subject who has his hands up--->
http://www.nj.com/cumberland/index.ssf/2015/01/watch_authorities_release_dashcam_footage_in_bridg.html

CNu said...

lol, this nucca said "world-class PRR" oh, and added "Rushton and Jenson were so successful"..., that thurr is some straight coffee thru the nostrils comedy gold. whew!!!


Thanks for being you BD. I can always depend on your antics to add levity to what might otherwise descend into a gray day...,

BigDonOne said...

@CNu...BD notices there wasn't a single word of condemnation for that black 'overseer' assassinating the unarmed black guy with his hands up.... must have been just routine workplace violence like the Brown-Wilson incident.

CNu said...

BD pays attention to a whole-lotta shyte that I do not. To what specifically does BD refer? oops, my bad, you put it into your comment above guess I wasn't paying attention to anything outside your claims that the auckland examiner and rushton and jensen comprised the PRR world-class representing your distinctive POV, my bad.

Did you see Django? The character Stephen?

Did you see A Soldier's Story? The character Sgt. Waters?

If not, then by all-means, do, because you've missed out.

If so, then tell me what's distinctive about what you've offered in the way of overseer overreach and incompetence in New Jersey?