people-press | Democrats hold advantages in party identification among blacks, Asians,
Hispanics, well-educated adults and Millennials. Republicans have leads
among whites – particularly white men, those with less education and
evangelical Protestants – as well as members of the Silent Generation.
A new analysis of long-term trends in party affiliation among the
public provides a detailed portrait of where the parties stand among
various groups in the population. It draws on more than 25,000
interviews conducted by the Pew Research Center in 2014, which allows
examination of partisan affiliation across even relatively small racial,
ethnic, educational and income subgroups. (Explore detailed tables for 2014 here.)
The share of independents in the public, which long ago
surpassed the percentages of either Democrats or Republicans, continues
to increase. Based on 2014 data, 39% identify as independents, 32% as
Democrats and 23% as Republicans. This is the highest percentage of
independents in more than 75 years of public opinion polling. (For a timeline of party affiliation among the public since 1939, see this interactive feature.)
When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account,
48% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 39% identify as
Republicans or lean Republican. The gap in leaned party affiliation has
held fairly steady since 2009, when Democrats held a 13-point advantage
(50% to 37%).
A closer look at …
Race and ethnicity.
Republicans hold a 49%-40% lead over the Democrats in leaned party
identification among whites. The GOP’s advantage widens to 21 points
among white men who have not completed college (54%-33%) and white
southerners (55%-34%). The Democrats hold an 80%-11% advantage among
blacks, lead by close to three-to-one among Asian Americans (65%-23%)
and by more than two-to-one among Hispanics (56%-26%).
Gender. Women
lean Democratic by 52%-36%; men are evenly divided (44% identify as
Democrats or lean Democratic; 43% affiliate with or lean toward the
GOP). Gender differences are evident in nearly all subgroups: For
instance, Republicans lead among married men (51%-38%), while married
women are evenly divided (44% Republican, 44% Democratic). Democrats
hold a substantial advantage among all unmarried adults, but their lead
in leaned partisan identification is greater among unmarried women
(57%-29%) than among unmarried men (51%-34%).
Education. Democrats
lead by 22 points (57%-35%) in leaned party identification among adults
with post-graduate degrees. The Democrats’ edge is narrower among those
with college degrees or some post-graduate experience (49%-42%), and
those with less education (47%-39%). Across all educational categories,
women are more likely than men to affiliate with the Democratic Party
or lean Democratic. The Democrats’ advantage is 35 points (64%-29%)
among women with post-graduate degrees, but only eight points (50%-42%)
among post-grad men.
Generations. Millennials
continue to be the most Democratic age cohort; 51% identify as
Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 35% who identify with the
GOP or lean Republican. There are only slight differences in partisan
affiliation between older and younger millennials. Republicans have a
four-point lead among the Silent Generation (47%-43%), the most
Republican age cohort.
Religion.
Republicans lead in leaned party identification by 48 points among
Mormons and 46 points among white evangelical Protestants. Younger white
evangelicals (those under age 35) are about as likely older white
evangelicals to identify as Republicans or lean Republican. Adults who
have no religious affiliation lean Democratic by a wide margins (36
points). Jews lean Democratic by roughly two-to-one (61% to 31%). The
balance of leaned partisan affiliation among white Catholics and white
mainline Protestants closely resembles that of all whites.
