Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Review of Lieutenant Colonel Fleming’s U.S. Army War College thesis on Peak Oil

EnergyBulletin | LTC Christopher M. Fleming has made a valuable contribution to peak oil research with his concise thesis, Considering Oil Production Variance as an Indicator of Peak Production (June 2010, 26 pgs).

In his Abstract, LTC Fleming summarized both the purpose and the conclusions of his research: “Peak Oil predictions range from the year 2000 to 2100 with the highest concentration of forecasts from 2005 to 2016. Confidence in international oil reserves data is lacking. As such, different forecasters make different assumptions about future undiscovered oil amounts and oil reserves, resulting in a wide range of peak oil estimates. Viewing this wide time disparity in forecasts as problematic, the research objective was to look for an economic cross-check indicator, metric, or alternative data-based means to corroborate or refute existing peak oil estimates."

The primary finding was unprecedented statistical variance in oil production rates as well as in oil prices beginning approximately 2005 to 2010. In the case of oil production rates, variance is at historically low levels. In the case of oil prices, variance is at historically high levels. The data indicate a new higher order of inelasticity between oil price and oil production.

These findings support peak oil forecasts in the range of 2005 to 2010 and together provide strong evidence that geological factors could presently be limiting world oil production.”

In his section, Hydrocarbon Man and the Petroleum Age, LTC Fleming clearly appreciates the fundamental role of petroleum: “All the marvels of the twentieth and twenty-first century were made possible by our connection to cheap, plentiful fossil fuels.”

He then provides a compelling analogy to express the energy density of petroleum in practical terms:
“There are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil which contains about 1667 kilowatt-hours of energy. A gallon of gasoline energy content is about 33 kilowatt-hours. In perspective, 33 kilowatt-hours is the equivalent of a healthy male pedaling a stationary bike for 330 hours – if he can maintain 100 watts per hour. If he pedals 40 hours per week, he will generate the same amount of energy as in one gallon of gasoline in about eight weeks. Pedaling 40 hours per week for just over eight years equates to 1667 kilowatt-hours of energy in a barrel of oil.

Now, if we attach a financial cost per hour to the pedaling, we begin to understand what is meant by “cheap” abundant fossil fuels. At the current $7.25 per hour minimum wage, the coast of pedaling 330 hours (energy in one gallon of gasoline) is $2,392.50; and pedaling 16,667 hours (energy in one barrel of oil) cost $120,835…. We have exploited this cheap abundant source of energy for over 150 years” (p. 3).

In his section, Oil Discoveries in Perspective, LTC Fleming points out how recent high-profile reports of oil discoveries should be interpreted as evidence of trouble ahead, rather than as reassurance that all is well: “BP’s discovery of three billion barrels of oil represents a 1.15 month supply to the overall global market” (p. 9). Fleming adds, “It should be noticed that the explorations, whatever they might be, tend to be setting records for depth, and are in harsh, forbidding places” (p. 10).

The chief contribution of this thesis is its statistical analysis of oil production variance and oil price variance (with a particular focus on the five years between March 2005 and February 2010):

“Oil production variance and oil price variance have never been so far apart…. [There is] an inelasticity at least ten times greater than at any time during the previous 30 years, and 100 times greater than during the previous decade. One might conclude that what we have considered ‘normal’ oil production and oil price cycles have ceased to exist” (p. 15-16).

LTC Fleming concludes, “The synchrony of unprecedented low production variance, unprecedented high price variance, and the number of peak oil forecasts in the range of 2005 to 2010 provide strong evidence that, regardless of price pull, geological factors could be presently limiting world oil production” (p. 17).

Finally, LTC Fleming notes the gravity of what lies ahead and the need for realistic planning: “It is important to make the distinction between a temporary oil supply disruption and oil’s terminal production decline. Managing the risk of one is much different than managing the risk of the other” (p. 12).

LTC Fleming and his War College advisers are commended for their concise, insightful analysis of one of this century’s most formidable challenges, the peaking of global oil production. The US war colleges have produced a number of first-rate analyses of peak oil during the past six years, and this recent thesis is a significant contribution to that body of research.

LTC Fleming’s study is available here.

24 comments:

nanakwame said...

Doc as a ritualism to this question of resources and I know you don't like this man, Pinker's take on war is interesting . I don't see an end to battles and regional wars anytime soon, but if consciousness is to change isn't the ideas of war changing also? Can one's pessimism of human behavior, colors our look at the future, though how far can we see in the shadows?
Please limit the  Kansas City Bad Boy answer, if you wish to response 

CNu said...

I dont understand your questions nana and don't know pinker's opinion f war. The return on munitions in the forseeable and certain next global conflagration will make WW-II seem like boys chucking mud-clots.

1000 nuclear weapons will be "exchanged" - minimum...,

John Kurman said...

After reading part of "The Blank Slate", I came to the conclusion that Pinker, like the majority of science popularizers (can't really call him a scientist, maybe, academician) is a major bullshitter. As a result, I won't be reading "Better Angels". Nevertheless, reading through the reviews, seems the consensus is, yup, he's a major bullshitter. Have a look at his table towards the end of this interview piece: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/oct/15/steven-pinker-better-angels-violence-interview

Talk about a major mangling of numbers, cherry picking (careful choice of Enlightenment authors), and some strange form of inflation regarding the value of human life. In short, sounds like a Whig's view of history. I suspect that he'd somehow try to rank a nuke exchange as less than the An Lushan revolt, just to keep the table all tidy.

CNu said...

If the target humans have some perceived value as cosumers and as labor sources, the drone based counterinsurgency methods will be employed. Maximum lethality ROI, forces totally stand-off, and cheap enough to be indefinitely sustainable.

Otoh, let the target huma population be deemed minimal consumer market value and/or surplus labor value - and watch the sun(s)n.come down to earth and impart their cleansing and disinfecting white light.

nanakwame said...

Thank you John Kurman -I am not a Enlightenment advocate, except on a personal moments, but I do believe the less stupid mistake you make, the more joy one can find in"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=judyCgN2daA
Bitter Earth

Blues trope looks at life a little different. You do know what happen to her John? Leave you a haiku I wrote today.
Sabi: Faith is all there is/Appearance is an illusion/Beauty is suchness

nanakwame said...

I understand my brother - That smell of Napalm, I fought with person who brought back bones to place on their Library. What a repulsion for me it stays with me.
We will be together, Spirit willing, for a long while. We will see empirical moments, guess I am lucky to be me and the spot I sit, so far.  You notice the time scales on the map you placed?

Peace is not an absence of war, it is a virtue, a state of mind,
a disposition for benevolence, confidence, justice.
Baruch Spinoza, in Theological-Political Treatise (1670)

CNu said...

Fissile plutonium gots no smell, unless you count the peculiar tang of freshly ionized ozone...,

Tom said...

Nice paper.  Thanks for the link. 

Anonymous said...

You are ѕo cool! I dο not think I have reаd through anythіng like thiѕ before.
Sо nice to discover sоmeonе with
οrigіnаl thoughts on thiѕ subјеct matter.
Reallу.. thаnkѕ for staгting this uр.
This ωeb site іs sοmethіng that iѕ requiгed
on the internеt, someone with a little originality!
Feel free to visit my homepage - easy payday loans

Anonymous said...

I love looking through a post that will make men and women think.

Also, thanks for allowing for me to comment!


My weblog; criminal background checks for employment

Anonymous said...

Solid goods hеre on bloggeг.
com, mаn. I'm glad you've been аble tο gatheг uρ all thiѕ cоntent оn thiѕ ρagе, anԁ I'm loving the way you deliver it. You'νe
taken the effort to make it all at onсe entertаining
and intelligent. I cannot ωait to discоveг muсh morе frоm уou.

A benefіciаl blog inԁeеd.

Have a lοok at my blog; wfsb

Anonymous said...

Solid stuff here on blogger.com, man. I actually like
what you have accumulated in this article, definitely like what
you're saying and the way through which you assert it. You've taken the
effort to make it simultaneously entertaining and intelligent.
I think I can gather a lot from you. A useful blog without a doubt.



my website ... Gamewinners com

Anonymous said...

Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets
I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates.
I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

Feel free to surf to my blog post :: doktorsexamen

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed reading it, you are a
great author. I will always bookmark your blog and will come back from now on.
I want to encourage that you continue your great work, have a
nice weekend!

Also visit my site; where to sell gold

Anonymous said...

Solid post. I studу somеthing similar here at ЅUΝΥ.
It's really beneficial to learn new stuff from fellow writers and obtain ideas from new sources. I’d like to incorporate some of this information on my own site (if you don’t mind). And of course, I'll post a backlіnk to your site at blogger.
com on mу own page. Kudos for pοѕtіng.



Mу web blog modded xbox 360 cоntrollershttp://ωωw.
ѕcufgaming.com/us/ (http://www.scufgaming.com/)

Anonymous said...

Hello, I'm Sarah and I've just recently started to get into
what you're going over. I am not certain where you’re finding your info, but solid job nonetheless. I ought to invest some more time learning and understanding more. Thanks for the post: this is just what I was looking for for my search.

Feel free to surf to my page ... "barking deer" ()

Anonymous said...

Very great post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that
I have really enjoyed browsing your weblog posts.
In any case I'll be subscribing in your rss feed and I'm hoping you
write once more soon!

Here is my web page: Candy crush cheats

Anonymous said...

Hi! I could have sworn I've been to this site before but after browsing through some of the post I
realized it's new to me. Nonetheless, I'm definitely glad I found it and I'll be
bookmarking and checking back frequently!

Feel free to surf to my site; watch dogs pc full game

Anonymous said...

Does your website have a contact page? I'm having problems locating it but,
I'd like to shoot you an e-mail. I've got some ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
Either way, great blog and I look forward to seeing it grow
over time.

Also visit my homepage bestshampooandconditioner

Anonymous said...

81 and 27 earned credits with 8 left in order to complete out towards the end in the school
year. You need to learn that every MBA program sold
at top schools is unique; therefore, you ought to visit each school's admissions page for
particulars on admission requirements. Madison: Let's see, those would
be the two front runners definitely.

Visit my weblog; german american business translation

Anonymous said...

Within The AssistiveTouch interface, you'll find the "Generate new Gesture" option. Then visit the website
http://help.benm.at/aid. It'll void your warranty. Do not try this if you fail
to follow recommendations.

Stop by my web blog: evasi0n download (rdlnk.co)

Anonymous said...

I was wondering if you ever considered changing the structure of your blog?
Its very well written; I love what youve
got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the
way of content so people could connect with it better.
Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 images.
Maybe you could space it out better?

My webpage - chinese interpreter china

Anonymous said...

Hi there friends, how is everything, and what you want to say on the topic of this article, in my view its
truly remarkable for me.

Here is my webpage - black mold removal

Anonymous said...

In the end, you will have assigned 136 confidence points
(16+15+14+. 'The teams, the broadcast contract and
our showcase games this year are going to
generate tremendous excitement about this League and the great seasons to come.
Ole Miss and Mississippi State moving the Egg Bowl away from Jackson, Miss.



Feel free to visit my web-site; football

Africom Expelled From Niger Just Like Little French Bishes...,

abcnews  |   On Saturday, following the meeting, the junta’s spokesperson, Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, said U.S. flights over Niger’s ter...