WaPo | The number of Ebola cases in West Africa could quadruple to more than
20,000 by early November in the absence of monumental efforts to slow
the rate of transmission, according to a team of researchers working for
the World Health Organization.
The report, outlined Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine,
also argues that if the disease isn’t adequately contained, it could
become endemic among the populations in countries hardest hit by the
outbreak — Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.
“Without drastic
improvements in control measures,” researchers say, “the numbers and
cases and deaths from [Ebola] are expected to continue increasing from
hundreds to thousands per week in coming months.”
The latest
findings come as the WHO’s official count for the outbreak has surged
past 5,800 people infected and 2,800 deaths. But as the agency’s
researchers acknowledge in Tuesday’s report, “the true numbers of cases
and deaths are certainly higher.”
The reasons behind that rapid
acceleration are clear and daunting. According to researchers, every
person who gets sick in Sierra Leone infects roughly two more people.
Those “reproduction” rates are lower in Guinea and Liberia, but only
slightly. That means that without forceful measures to disrupt
transmission of the disease, the three countries combined could be
facing more than 20,000 Ebola cases by November.
