BI | On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the Kremlin annexing Crimea would “close any available space for diplomacy.”
The warning is disconcerting because there are three general ways
that this crisis could play out: Russia keeps advancing into east and
south Ukraine, Russia annexes Crimea and then applies further financial
and political pressure on the new government in Kiev, or Russia makes
limited concessions and the crisis de-escalates.
By Kerry saying that the diplomatic window is closed if Russia annexes Crimea — which is almost a forgone conclusion — then the best path for de-escalation is obstructed.
"We need a de-escalation and that can only happen via talks," German
Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, who spoke with Putin in Moscow last
week, told Der
Spiegel. "It's not a question now of whether we react in a 'hard' or
'soft' manner; rather we have to act in a clever manner."
Furthermore, on Sunday U.S. national security official Tony Blinken said that America won't recognize the March 16 referendum and will increase sanctions on Moscow if and when Crimea secedes.
Meanwhile, experts agree that Vladimir Putin is not going to give up Crimea.
