Friday, December 02, 2011

is the personal computer dead?

TechnologyReview | The PC is dead. Rising numbers of mobile, lightweight, cloud-centric devices don't merely represent a change in form factor. Rather, we're seeing an unprecedented shift of power from end users and software developers on the one hand, to operating system vendors on the other—and even those who keep their PCs are being swept along. This is a little for the better, and much for the worse.

The transformation is one from product to service. The platforms we used to purchase every few years—like operating systems—have become ongoing relationships with vendors, both for end users and software developers. I wrote about this impending shift, driven by a desire for better security and more convenience, in my 2008 book The Future of the Internet—and How to Stop It.

For decades we've enjoyed a simple way for people to create software and share or sell it to others. People bought general-purpose computers—PCs, including those that say Mac. Those computers came with operating systems that took care of the basics. Anyone could write and run software for an operating system, and up popped an endless assortment of spreadsheets, word processors, instant messengers, Web browsers, e-mail, and games. That software ranged from the sublime to the ridiculous to the dangerous—and there was no referee except the user's good taste and sense, with a little help from nearby nerds or antivirus software. (This worked so long as the antivirus software was not itself malware, a phenomenon that turned out to be distressingly common.)

Choosing an OS used to mean taking a bit of a plunge: since software was anchored to it, a choice of, say, Windows over Mac meant a long-term choice between different available software collections. Even if a software developer offered versions of its wares for each OS, switching from one OS to another typically meant having to buy that software all over again.
Advertisement

That was one reason we ended up with a single dominant OS for over two decades. People had Windows, which made software developers want to write for Windows, which made more people want to buy Windows, which made it even more appealing to software developers, and so on. In the 1990s, both the U.S. and European governments went after Microsoft in a legendary and yet, today, easily forgettable antitrust battle. Their main complaint? That Microsoft had put a thumb on the scale in competition between its own Internet Explorer browser and its primary competitor, Netscape Navigator. Microsoft did this by telling PC makers that they had to ensure that Internet Explorer was ready and waiting on the user's Windows desktop when the user unpacked the computer and set it up, whether the PC makers wanted to or not. Netscape could still be prebundled with Windows, as far as Microsoft was concerned. Years of litigation and oceans of legal documents can thus be boiled down into an essential original sin: an OS maker had unduly favored its own applications.

When the iPhone came out in 2007, its design was far more restrictive. No outside code at all was allowed on the phone; all the software on it was Apple's. What made this unremarkable—and unobjectionable—was that it was a phone, not a computer, and most competing phones were equally locked down. We counted on computers to be open platforms—hard to think of them any other way—and understood phones as appliances, more akin to radios, TVs, and coffee machines.

11 comments:

Accounts Software said...

Accounting information systems were predominantly developed “in-house” as legency systems.Such solutions were difficult to develop and expensive to maintain.This is one of the nice blog where the information of accounts software are given briefly. Accounts Software

Big Don said...

.....BD does not need a $100-plus per month "plan" to use his PC, and it displays a complete web page, not one-fourth-or-so of it that you hafta scroll around to see.  You can have your iCrap, Apps, Cloud, poor-quality fotos/videos... and dead batteries....

umbrarchist said...

ROFLMAO

umbrarchist said...

You have to wonder how much the media influences people's so called thinking.

Since the smartphones have the computing power of desktop PCs of just a few years ago there is a little logic to it.  But I think paying for expensive wireless plans is ridiculous.  I would just pay for phone service.  But I would download stuff from the web to my PC and transfer it to my phone to use the phone as a computer on the go.

But they keep making thinner phones like that is a big deal.  Give me a thicker phone and a BIGGER Battery.  I want 24 hour computer operation.  It is a computer with a telephone interface.

But so many people buy this stuff because it is a cool status symbol?  And we can never have enough cute cat pictures on the Internet.  PCs can't take nearly as many cute cat pictures.  So There!

nanakwame said...

How are going to build our cyborg? In ancient times the myth was man and animal power, now it is man and computing power. What did Dr Hawkins say we build our own membrane for our augmented intelligence. That is the real AI. Watch the building of the individual soldier it is fucking amazing. The ones with the most rapid speed and comprehensions will win out, with a dash of empathy.

CNu said...

only if "empathy" helps you track and eradicate prey..., like some form of mirror neuron imitating prey simulation subsystem.

CNu said...

Does BD still work with his 56K modem too?

Big Don said...

Y'all dunno what Old is.  BD was flogging dial-up BBS's with a Vic-20 and 300baud modem when CNu was in diapers...

CNu said...

BD trippin.

CNu was grown, locally present, and accounted for during the height of Project Athena http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Athena  whilst you were playing on your Vic - and very shortly thereafter living in sin in Framingham MA with the future Mrs. Nu - a lifelong employee of Digital Equipment Corp - who had her DEC deck with 300baud modem (old school phone in cradle type situation) and afforded me unlimited "enthusiast" access to the same.

If you were flogging the BBS's 30 years ago, why your game not razor sharp after all these years you've had to practice? You should be Yoda schooling padawans by now!

John Kurman said...

I think I got you beat. I carved holes in hollerith cards to represent '1's.
Our computers were made of wood, and we used monkeys and birds to power them.
I used to be able to multiply hexadecimal in my  head. No, really.

Seriously, I doubt a single bit of my code (FORTRAN, RPG, COBOL, JCL, Assembler) remains. All in the digital Ginnungagap, and the primitive old iron that ran them now all anchor chains at the bottom of Singapore harbor I daresay.

Probably just as well...

nanakwame said...

You can take that to the bank, with all the ugliness about,  a boy raised from the 1950's with a TV, 12 AM "The Pledge"" then off to bed. I have witness gadgetry and tools, and the  stuff of imaginative persons in my hands and visuals. My version of "what is life" has changed greatly in the last 40 years.

Master Arbitrageur Nancy Pelosi Is At It Again....,

🇺🇸TUCKER: HOW DID NANCY PELOSI GET SO RICH? Tucker: "I have no clue at all how Nancy Pelosi is just so rich or how her stock picks ar...