politico | A new academic paper produced by the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York concludes that deaths caused by the
1918 influenza pandemic “profoundly shaped German society” in subsequent
years and contributed to the strengthening of the Nazi Party.
The paper, published
this month and authored by New York Fed economist Kristian Blickle,
examined municipal spending levels and voter extremism in Germany from
the time of the initial influenza outbreak until 1933, and shows that
“areas which experienced a greater relative population decline” due to
the pandemic spent “less, per capita, on their inhabitants in the
following decade.”
The
paper also shows that “influenza deaths of 1918 are correlated with an
increase in the share of votes won by right-wing extremists, such as the
National Socialist Workers Party” in Germany’s 1932 and 1933 elections.
Together, the lower spending and
flu-related deaths “had a strong effect on the share of votes won by
extremists, specifically the extremist national socialist party” — the
Nazis — the paper posits. “This result is stronger for right-wing
extremists, and largely non-existent for left-wing extremists.”
Despite becoming popularly known as the Spanish flu, the influenza pandemic likely originated
in the United States at a Kansas military base, eventually infecting
about one-third of the global population and killing at least 50 million
people worldwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Germany experienced roughly 287,000 influenza deaths between 1918 and 1920, Blickle writes.
