moonofalabama | The reports about the current events in Iraq miss the root cause of the crisis.
During last summer there were several large explosions on bases held
by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF/PMU/Hashed) in Iraq. These were
either caused
by extreme summer heat or by Israeli air attacks launched from U.S.
bases in Iraq or Syria. Most PMF leaders believe that the second is the
case.
There were also drone attacks
on positions held by PMF at the Syrian Iraqi border at Abu
Kamal/Al-Qa'im. These were likewise attributed to Israel which allegedly
flew the drones from U.S. bases in northeast Syria.
The alleged aim of these operations was to disrupt the land route for
material coming from Iran and going to Syria. Several dozens PMF
members were wounded during the incidents.
It was after these attacks that a small campaign of revenge attacks
on U.S. bases in Iraq began. These were mostly wild mortar or small
missile shots which created little damage. In total some 17 such attacks
happened. The U.S. alleged, without giving any evidence, that the
missiles used were smuggled in from Iran and used by Iran supported
forces against the U.S. No evidence was ever produced to support those
allegation.
The PMF/PMU are Iraqi troops and part of the Iraqi military
establishment. They are under command of the Iraqi prime minister. The
Iraqi state pays their salaries. They have their own munition supplies
and do not depend on Iran. It is quite possible that some of the PMU
members took shots at U.S. bases in revenge for the explosions in their
bases without any order or support from Iran.
On December 12 the Carnegie Middle East Center asked several 'experts' how the U.S. should react to the attacks which it alleges come from Iran.
Michael Knights, a 'senior fellow' at the Washington Institute which is part of the Israel lobby, responded:
As mobile launch platforms may relocate or be collocated with civilians, the United States needs to maintain updated sets of pre-vetted “response option” targets that can be struck at a time and place of its choosing. The United States should wait, if need be, for militia headquarters to re-fill, not just strike empty buildings as quickly as possible. Any target in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, or elsewhere should be considered fair game.
When on December 29 several missiles hit a U.S. base in Iraq and
killed one U.S. contractor the Trump administration did exactly that. It
bombed five sites at the Iraqi Syrian border hundreds of kilometers
away from the original attack. Some 32 people died of which only nine
were members of the of the Kata'ib Hezbollah group of the PMF. The
others killed were Iraqi border policy men and regular Iraqi soldiers.
We immediately predicted that the incident was likely to end the presence of U.S. military in Iraq.
