Thursday, January 30, 2020

What Will Happen If the Senate Votes Trump Guilty?


quora | The problem with this whole impeachment thing is more serious than most people realize. The broader problem we are facing is one of confidence. Governments, at least effective governments, only survive so long as the vast majority of the people living under it have confidence in its competence and fairness, especially fairness. If enough people come to believe their government is unfair/one sided/corrupt, that government will either collapse or the whole country slumps into a sort of 3rd world banana republic.

The right has come to believe this is he case with our government over the last 15 to 20 years, and since the ’16 election, the left is starting to believe this as well. The reasons for both beliefs are varied and I won’t go into them here. It would take too long and it would be pointless. The right can’t be convinced of the left’s point of view, and the left can’t be convinced of the right’s point of view. The important thing is this; if Trump isn’t impeached the left will be utterly convinced it is proof the government has become so corrupt that it is no longer worth supporting. If Trump is impeached they will take it as proof that the deep state has taken over the government, and so the government is no longer legitimate.

Either way, when this whole thing finally comes to an end, there will be around 30% of the population who believe the government lacks legitimacy. That’s more than enough to eventually lead to a civil war or mark the beginning of a slide into banana republic status. Ultimately this isn’t about Trump. The problem pre-dates him. The problem is that the left and the right no longer believe in the same fundamental principles, no longer share a common world view, or even culture. Indeed, the two world views are incompatible. I’m not saying one is better than the other. I’m just observing the two can no longer comfortably co-exist within the same country. Like a married couple that no longer loves each other and now spends all their time angrily arguing with one another, the healthiest thing we could do is recognize we have irreconcilable differences and seek and amicable divorce.

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