arstechnica | One-shot cures for diseases are not great for business—more
specifically, they’re bad for longterm profits—Goldman Sachs analysts
noted in an April 10 report for biotech clients, first reported by CNBC.
The investment banks’ report, titled “The Genome Revolution,” asks
clients the touchy question: “Is curing patients a sustainable business
model?” The answer may be “no,” according to follow-up information
provided.
Analyst Salveen Richter and colleagues laid it out:
The potential to deliver “one shot cures” is one of the
most attractive aspects of gene therapy, genetically engineered cell
therapy, and gene editing. However, such treatments offer a very
different outlook with regard to recurring revenue versus chronic
therapies... While this proposition carries tremendous value for
patients and society, it could represent a challenge for genome medicine
developers looking for sustained cash flow.
For a real-world example, they pointed to Gilead Sciences, which
markets treatments for hepatitis C that have cure rates exceeding 90
percent. In 2015, the company’s hepatitis C treatment sales peaked at
$12.5 billion. But as more people were cured and there were fewer
infected individuals to spread the disease, sales began to languish.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the treatments will bring in less
than $4 billion this year.
“[Gilead]’s rapid rise and fall of its hepatitis C franchise
highlights one of the dynamics of an effective drug that permanently
cures a disease, resulting in a gradual exhaustion of the prevalent pool
of patients,” the analysts wrote. The report noted that diseases such
as common cancers—where the “incident pool remains stable”—are less
risky for business.
To get around the sustainability issue overall, the report suggests
that biotech companies focus on diseases or conditions that seem to be
becoming more common and/or are already high-incidence. It also suggests
that companies be innovative and constantly expanding their portfolio
of treatments. This can “offset the declining revenue trajectory of
prior assets." Lastly, it hints that, as such cures come to fruition,
they could open up more investment opportunities in treatments for
“disease of aging.” Fist tap Dale
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