eurekalert | Would you believe that a broad range of human struggles can be
understood by using a mathematical formula? From child-parent struggles
to cyber-attacks and civil unrest, they can all be explained with a
simple mathematical expression called a "power-law."
In a sort of unified theory of human conflict, scientists have found
a way to mathematically describe the severity and timing of human
confrontations that affect us personally and as a society.
For example, the manner in which a baby's cries escalate against its
parent is comparable to the way riots in Poland escalated in the
lead-up to the collapse of the Soviet Union. It comes down to the fact
that the perpetrator in both cases (e.g. baby, rioters) adapts quickly
enough to escalate its attacks against the larger, but more sluggish
entity (e.g. parent, government), who is unable, or unwilling, to
respond quickly enough to satisfy the perpetrator, according to a new
study published in Nature's Scientific Reports.
"By picking out a specific baby (and parent), and studying what
actions of the parent make the child escalate or de-escalate its cries,
we can understand better how to counteract cyber-attacks against a
particular sector of U.S. cyber infrastructure, or how an outbreak of
civil unrest in a given location (e.g. Syria) will play out, following
particular government interventions," says Neil Johnson, professor of
physics and the head of the interdisciplinary research group in
Complexity, at the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of
Miami (UM) and corresponding author of the study.
Respectively, the study finds some remarkable similarities between seemingly disconnected confrontations. For instance:
- The escalation of violent attacks in Magdalena, Colombia --
though completely cut off from the rest of the world -- is actually
representative of all modern wars. Meanwhile, the conflict in Sierra
Leone, Africa, has exactly the same dynamics as the narco-guerilla war
in Antioquia, Colombia.
- The pattern of attacks by predatory traders against General
Electric (GE) stock is equivalent to the pattern of cyber-attacks
against the U.S. hi-tech electronics sector by foreign groups, which in
turn mimics specific infants and parents.
- New insight into the controversial 'Bloody Sunday' attack by
the British security forces, against civilians, on January 30,1972,
reveals that Bloody Sunday appears to be the culmination of escalating
Provisional Irish Republican Army attacks, not their trigger, hence
raising new questions about its strategic importance.
The findings show that this mathematical formula of the form AB-C
is a valuable tool that can be applied to make quantitative predictions
concerning future attacks in a given confrontation. It can also be used
to create an intervention strategy against the perpetrators and, more
broadly, as a quantitative starting point for cross-disciplinary
theorizing about human aggression, at the individual and group level, in
both real and online worlds.