Friday, January 04, 2008

Wizards at War - V

quoth True Character;
We have modified our environment so radically that we must now modify ourselves to exist in this new environment. ~ Norbert Wiener Environment Quotes
It’s the Oil, Stupid! (Hubbert’s Curve and World War III) - 2003 Joseph George Caldwell

Ever since the Immigration Act of 1965, the US has been allowing many more immigrants into the country than ever before. As long as oil was abundant and free (in fact, more than free, since each barrel of oil pumped out of the ground could be used to pump many more barrels out of the ground), there was no economic incentive to restrict immigration. In fact, there was an economic incentive to increase immigration – for every new immigrant, the gross national product increased by an amount approximately equal to the gross national product per capita. Getting the energy to “fund” these new immigrants was not a problem, since global oil production was increasing every year. Because America was addicted to growth, immigration soared to very high levels, to the point where its population was growing by about one percent a year (three million people per year), almost solely because of immigration. (US population in 1950 was 152 million; today it is almost double that.)

But all of a sudden, once global production starts to decline, the situation changes dramatically. As long as America can keep its consumption up by taking oil away from other countries, nothing really changes “at home.” But this can go on for only so long, and it cannot continue without a fight. Finally, the point is reached where, short of war, there is no more production to take away from other countries, and America’s oil supply begins to fall. With no oil to fuel the economy, however, all of these immigrants – and the “natives,” as well – represent a cost, not a benefit – they have no energy with which to produce, all they do is consume. At this point, it is very much in America’s interest to send its bloated population – its immigrants as well as its natives – to war. And the more casualties, the better. Each person killed represents a saving of about 8,000 kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) per year. If the war effort brings in more oil than would be consumed by the soldier and the war, then fine, the soldier is “paying his way.” But finally, the point is reached where there is simply not enough oil in the world to support America’s thirst for oil. At this point, the only way to reduce US demand for oil is by global war involving massive US casualties, and the only way to reduce global demand for oil is by global war involving massive casualties in the world’s industrial nations.

But the President cannot say that he is sending citizens to war simply to eliminate them, any more than he could say that he was invading Iraq for its oil. Once again, an excuse will be sought. The President will seek excuses to engage in wars with massive casualties. At the present time, the US has only 140,000 soldiers in Iraq, and about one soldier a day is being killed. Eventually, the US will maintain millions of soldiers around the world, guarding its precious oil supply (both from use by other competing users and from destruction from politics-of-envy terrorists). And the casualty count will not be a cost, it will be a benefit. Eventually, the casualty count will be in the millions every year for the US, and on the order of a hundred million per year worldwide. This is easy to see: Hubbert’s curve falls from its current production level to near zero in about forty years. This means that global population will fall from 6.2 billion to about 200 million in forty years. (See Can America Survive? for discussion of this point, viz., that global population is proportional to global energy availability.) This means that, on the average, about (6 billion / 40 years) = 150 million people per year will die every year, worldwide. In the US, the population will fall from about 300 million to about 100 thousand, so that about (300 million / 40 years) = 7.5 million per year. And they will not die of starvation – they will die by war. (Furthermore, it is not likely that the population will decline gracefully, like Hubbert’s curve; as I have discussed elsewhere, the decline is likely to be catastrophic, for a number of reasons (catastrophe theory, systems dynamics, degradation of our environment, overshoot and collapse)).

Watch closely. These dramatic changes are just around the corner. The first clue that things are changing will be when the President will press for sending more troops to Iraq, despite mounting casualties. And then, he will press to send US troops to any large-oil-producing state, to protect the oil assets from destruction by terrorists. And then, he will send troops simply to divert the oil to the US. And perhaps then, the American and British people will begin to realize that their leaders are doing it for them, and doing it for the oil. Their high standard of living cannot continue without access to much – and soon most, and eventually all – of the world’s oil. From the viewpoint of continuing our industrial society, America and Britain must have access to a greater and greater portion of the world’s diminishing oil supply. All countries will soon move aggressively to acquire and or maintain access to the diminishing supply. Soon, American and British leaders will no longer be able to – and no longer have to – make excuses for American and British actions to acquire oil to maintain their industrial societies and the lavish lifestyles of their populations. For a little while longer, however, Americans and Brits may continue to live the illusion that we are taking these actions for humanitarian and altruistic and defensive reasons. Soon, the only reason will be “defensive.” And then, there will be no need for reasons at all. As General George S. Patton once remarked, “You will know what to do.”

From an astrological viewpoint, it is interesting to note that today, August 27, 2003, the planet Mars, God of War, is closer to Earth than at any time in the past 60,000 years.


Dale Asberry said...

So why then the recent move completely out of Iraq? Also, why the move to drone-based warfare. Those don't cut back the American population.

CNu said...

lol, ain't nobody moving completely out of nothing..., there will continue to be 15,000 troops on the ground in Iraq post "pull-out" - and - don't forget the roles currently being played/subserved by NATO and our garrison state Israel.

The cost-to-value of drone based warfare is immeasurably greater than for the manned alternatives - however - the transition to a fully integrated full spectrum dominance capability will still take time. The U.S. provided all the C3I for Libya, up to and including the drone strike that left Gaddafi ass-out of his convoy fleeing Sirte and vulnerable to capture and execution.  Try and think about the big picture

All of what's taken place over the past decade is simply a run-up to the big show.

The big show is coming and demographically speaking, all-hands will be needed on deck like never before. (surely you don't believe these little practice runs amount to an even remote approximation of real war do you?)

Look here;

and here;

Mark my words on this one brah, even manufacturing drones balls to the walls and deploying every able-bodied man and woman to the field we will be very hard pressed to "win" what's around that signpost up ahead. Perhaps it's not even in the cards for us to win.