johnhelmer.net | In the first direct Russian warning to the US Navy force in the Eastern Mediterranean, Zakharova added: “So far we see that the situation is developing along the path of escalation. There is a great risk of involving third forces in this conflict. And this is fraught with long-term consequences for the region and for the world.”
Putin followed in the evening on the telephone with the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The need for an immediate ceasefire by both sides and the resumption of the negotiation process was emphasised,” according to the Kremlin’s communiqué. “Mutual readiness to actively contribute to this was expressed…Separate issues of Russian-Turkish cooperation in various fields were also touched upon.”
Erdogan’s press release was more revealing. He and Putin had “touched upon what initiatives can be taken to meet humanitarian needs in the region, as the Turkish president told Putin that targeting civilian settlements is worrying and Türkiye does not welcome such move.” Erdogan’s twitter announcement adds: “President Erdoğan and President Putin of Russia also exchanged views on potential initiatives to meet humanitarian needs in the region.”
This is a hint that Erdogan and Putin are contemplating a Turkish ship convoy of aid to Gaza, protected from Israeli attack by the Russian Navy from its Tartous base on the Syrian coast, and by the Russian Air Force from Hmeimim. This humanitarian operation by sea would aim at breaking the blockade of the coast by the Israelis, and running the gauntlet of the USS Gerald Ford and its squadron further offshore. If this operation, a reminder of the Gaza Flotilla of 2010, is in planning now – the open signals are warning Washington and the US Navy to expect it – then the confrontation, and the risk to the US and Israel of strategic defeat at sea, are unprecedented.
The planning of Russian military protection of seaborne humanitarian aid convoys to the Gaza also extends to Egypt.
This was touched on in the conversation which Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry had with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. That was followed by Egyptian press disclosure of Israeli warnings, following by bombings, to stop Egyptian trucks delivering aid into Gaza across the Rafah land bridge at the southern end of Gaza.
An alternative Egyptian option is a naval convoy. If this will be coordinated through the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry with an Erdogan-Putin plan of a Turkish convoy sailing from the north, the escalation to regional and superpower level will have materialised before the Israeli invasion of Gaza can preempt it.
The Russian Defense Ministry has not been silent towards Israel in the past. Since the ambush by the Israel Air Force of the Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft, and the killing of its 15-man crew in September 2018, the General Staff has said it has been reserving its moves against the Israelis while identifying them as the enemy.
Vzglyad, the Moscow platform for Russian military and security thinking, editorialised on April 17, 2023, that in siding with the Ukraine during the Special Military Operation, the Israeli government had become Russia’s adversary: “The time has come to take a new position on the Palestinian issue. To take the celebration of Al-Quds Day to a new level, as well as to take a more pro-Palestinian position in the Middle East conflict. To stand on the side of those who help Russia within the framework of their own interests (Iran, Saudi Arabia) against those who help our enemies. And thereby to send a very clear signal to the world – a signal that Russia will treat its partners exactly as they treat it. To help supporters – and not to act in the interests of opponents.”
The creation of a humanitarian corridor was explicitly mentioned in the Foreign Ministry briefing on Tuesday. “Tensions are rising in the West Bank of the Jordan River. There are high risks of the conflict spreading to the area of the Lebanese-Israeli border and drawing new parties into it. A large-scale humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding before our eyes. The main thing now is to cease fire and stop the bloodshed. We support the efforts of interested parties aimed at solving this priority task. This would make it possible to avoid new victims, end the suffering of the civilian population, ensure its evacuation through humanitarian corridors and prevent the situation from sliding into a region-wide humanitarian catastrophe. This is not just a crisis or an emergency. We are talking about the fate of millions of people.”
Spokesman Zakharova also struck at the CIA and the Pentagon for their surprise defeat by Hamas. “How did it happen that in a year; that’s how much time the operation was being prepared for, then carried out now in a few days, the United States as Israel’s closest ally did not warn about this? They have satellites everywhere, appropriate tracking devices, military bases, including in the region. There are all the possibilities to carry out, not just monitoring, but surveillance — the facts speak for themselves — of all information circulating on American-made equipment (hardware and software). For the whole year of preparing such a large-scale operation, the United States with all the power of its special services did not transmit anything to Israel as intelligence…How did it happen that during the whole year of preparation of the corresponding operation in the Middle East, the United States did not transmit any information to its partners in Israel?”
By contrast, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “for two months at the end of 2021 and two months at the beginning of 2022, the United States at all levels told how Russia would ‘attack’ Ukraine. This was done specifically to create an information backdrop in order to divert the eyes of the whole world from how, for all these years, the United States and their NATO colleagues (primarily the United Kingdom) have been pumping Ukraine with weapons and creating the anti-Russia project, an anti-Russian springboard…After the corresponding instruction from Washington, a multiple increase in the shelling of Donbass by the regime of V.A. Zelensky followed. Then, in late 2021-early 2022, the US ‘knew everything’ and told everyone. But in the area of their direct responsibility — the Middle East has always been one of them — in relation to the closest ally over which the American protectorate is carried out, the US special services, the State Department and the White House did not transmit any information necessary for self-defence.”
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