Countercurrents | Look at the graph below and worry. It was drawn by the United States Department of Energy (Energy Information Administration) in 2009.
What does it imply? The supply of the world's most essential energy source is going off a cliff. Not in the distant future, but within two years. Production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half what it is today . And the difference needs to be made up with "unidentified projects" – in other words, we face a potential ‘rank shortage'. According to this graph, we stand on the edge of a precipice, with no prior warning from either the industry or governments, which ostensibly protect the public interest.
The original graph was prepared for a US Department of Energy meeting in spring, 2009.
Take a good look at what it says:
• We are past the peak of oil production and there are maybe 750 billion barrels of conventional oil left. Conventional oil will be substantially gone in 20 years, and there is nothing secure to replace it;
• Total petroleum production from all presently known sources, conventional and unconventional, will remain "flat" at approximately 83 mbpd for the next two years and then will proceed to drop for the foreseeable future, at first slowly but by 4% per year after 2015.
• Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years. The United States Joint Forces Command concurs with these findings.
• 10 million bpd is equivalent to half the United States ' entire consumption. To make up the difference, the world would have to find another Saudi Arabia and get it into full production in five years, an impossibility. See The Oil Drum
What does it imply? The supply of the world's most essential energy source is going off a cliff. Not in the distant future, but within two years. Production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half what it is today . And the difference needs to be made up with "unidentified projects" – in other words, we face a potential ‘rank shortage'. According to this graph, we stand on the edge of a precipice, with no prior warning from either the industry or governments, which ostensibly protect the public interest.
The original graph was prepared for a US Department of Energy meeting in spring, 2009.
Take a good look at what it says:
• We are past the peak of oil production and there are maybe 750 billion barrels of conventional oil left. Conventional oil will be substantially gone in 20 years, and there is nothing secure to replace it;
• Total petroleum production from all presently known sources, conventional and unconventional, will remain "flat" at approximately 83 mbpd for the next two years and then will proceed to drop for the foreseeable future, at first slowly but by 4% per year after 2015.
• Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years. The United States Joint Forces Command concurs with these findings.
• 10 million bpd is equivalent to half the United States ' entire consumption. To make up the difference, the world would have to find another Saudi Arabia and get it into full production in five years, an impossibility. See The Oil Drum
2 comments:
Doom tends to be a tiered thing, that is, it's a class thing.? About 60 to 75 million Americans (not to mention the Eurozone folks) have slipped out of the middle class and working class into a doomed state we can call the "throwaway class."? The throwaway class is no longer of use to the power people, the ruling class, the bourgeoisie that serves the ruling class and fears being thrown away, and the emerging bourgeoisie - the military and police.
Actually, the crash of Sept 2008 was pretty good for the wealthiest 1%. Worldwide. The number of billionaires increased, while millions more went into a doomed status where actual starvation is a high-probability event (i'm thinking of the lowest sectors in the "developing world" now, like Africa, south Asia, Latin America etc.).
The challenge facing the throwaway class, and most acutely, those about to be thrown away who still have enough knowledge, skill, and ability to be dangerous - is organizing effective ruckus among the throwaways. Effective ruckus boils down to educate, organize, resist, and replenish. Because the throwaway class is guaranteed to grow, in order to win, it must absolutely devise means to replicate and sustain ruckus that is more appealing than joining the military or police apparatus.
Don't get me wrong, now. I'm not saying that some sort of "recovery" is going to be possible. The doom is spreading, and there is frankly no recovery in the throwaway class. The 1% aren't going to suddenly have "The Shift" and start sharing that wealth. It's going to have to be forcibly stripped. In order for the full doom to occur, some means of bringing it (the doom, that is) straight to the top 1% has to be found. Social welfare programs aren't going to cut it. Actual productive capacity is going to have to fall into the hands of much bigger swaths of the population.
What Icelandic people did [by popular vote] was repudiate bank debts to foreign entities/banks. The people reasoned that the Icelandic bankers had made financial bets of their own accord and expected to pocket the profits. When the bets went bad, the Icelandic taxpayer had no moral, logical, or legal obligation to bail out the banksters.
Most of the recent bailouts in the US have been for the purpose of bailing out banks/bankers. The crisis was/is parallel to how the debt problem was created in Iceland. The US bailout programs [TARP, QE1 and QE2] went largely to bail out banks in the US and also overseas banks. The US public is left holding the bag and, unlike Icelanders, has allowed it to happen.
The situation in Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland is similar. It's the banks being bailed out, and the public accepting the debt. Voters are being bamboozled into accepting it. It's a bad deal for the German taxpayer and also a bad deal for Greeks who are putting up national assets/infrastructure/treasures as collateral.
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