CNN | Organized religion will all but vanish eventually from nine Western-style democracies, a team of mathematicians predict in a new paper based on census data stretching back 100 years.It won't die out completely, but "religion will be driven toward extinction" in countries including Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands, they say.
It will also wither away in Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland and Switzerland, they anticipate.
They can't make a prediction about the United States because the U.S. census doesn't ask about religion, lead author Daniel Abrams told CNN.
But nine other countries provide enough data for detailed mathematical modeling, he said.
"If you look at the data, 'unaffiliated' is the fastest-growing group" in those countries, he said.
"We start with two big assumptions based on sociology," he explained.
The first is that it's more attractive to be part of the majority than the minority, so as religious affiliation declines, it becomes more popular not to be a churchgoer than to be one, he said - what Abrams calls the majority effect.
"People are more likely to switch to groups with more members," he said.
Social networks can have a powerful influence, he said.
"Just a few connections to people who are (religiously) unaffiliated is enough to drive the effect," he said.
The other assumption underlying the prediction is that there are social, economic and political advantages to being unaffiliated with a religion in the countries where it's in decline - what Abrams calls the utility effect.
"The utility of being unaffiliated seems to be higher than affiliated in Western democracies," he said. Fist tap Arnach.
