WaPo | A
senior Russian official told state media on Wednesday that a
state-of-the-art laser weapons system has been deployed for active use
in Ukraine, a claim that U.S. defense authorities and military experts
say has not been substantiated and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky has mocked.
In
an interview with the state-controlled Channel One, Russian Deputy
Prime Minister Yury Borisov said the country’s latest laser weapon,
dubbed “Zadira,” is now used by military units fighting in Ukraine. The
equipment is capable of incinerating targets up to three miles away
within five seconds, he added, and is more advanced than the Peresvet,
another laser system unveiled by Russian President Vladimir Putin in
2018.
“If
Peresvet blinds an object, the new generation of laser weapons
physically destroys the target. It is burned up,” Borisov said in the
interview.
A senior Pentagon official told reporters during a news briefing on Wednesday that the United States has not seen any evidence to corroborate Borisov’s claim.
In his nightly address to the nation, Zelensky mocked
the notion of Zadira’s use and compared it to “wunderwaffe,” or wonder
weapons. The term was coined during World War II by Nazi war
propagandists who boasted the lethality of modern military equipment
such as cruise missiles, even though historians now say these weapons were far less effective than advertised.
“All
this clearly indicates the complete failure of the invasion,” Zelensky
said Wednesday evening. “But again, this also shows that they are afraid
to admit that catastrophic mistakes have been made at the highest state
and military levels in Russia.”
Mick
Ryan, a retired Australian army major general, who has been studying
the Russian invasion, told The Washington Post that weapons like Zadira
could take down reconnaissance drones or Ukrainian artillery. It could
also be used to blind Ukrainian soldiers, a tactic that is banned under international convention, he added.
Ryan
cautioned against taking Russia’s words at face value in the absence of
evidence to support Moscow’s assertions. Since the start of the war,
Russia has repeatedly tried to “awe the Ukrainians and the West with
their supposed superiority,” Ryan said. “It hasn’t been working until
now. It’s probably unlikely to work with an experimental laser system
that’s yet to be proven to work.”
asiatimes | Hyten noted
at the time that the first US Joint Warfare Concept (JWC) simply
improved on the long-standing US strategy of gathering and using
ubiquitous information to coordinate forces and structure battles.
However, the JWC “failed miserably” in the October 2020 simulation,
since it presumed information dominance in a simulation wherein US
forces had to act without that advantage.
In response, Hyten espoused a new concept he termed “expanded
maneuver”, which entails aggregating capabilities to provide significant
effect, and disaggregating to survive any kind of threat.
This is enabled by AI, cloud computing and machine learning, and
could take place in multiple domains under a single command structure, a
concept known as Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2), which is the US’ concept to connect sensors from all branches of the US military into a single network.
Former US Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work has stated publicly
that in the most realistic Taiwan invasion simulations that the US can
come up the US has lost to China with a score of 18-0. These defeats
have shown that China’s A2/AD capabilities have evolved to the point
that the US can no longer expect to quickly achieve air, space or
maritime superiority.
China is not far behind in deploying autonomous drone swarms against
US, Taiwanese and allied forces. Following missile strikes to destroy
Taiwan’s command and control nodes and offensive cyber operations to
degrade Taiwan’s space-based systems, China may launch its own drone
swarms to knock out Taiwan’s air defenses, going against the latter’s
air defense radars and missile batteries.
The potential use of drone swarms may fuel an AI arms race between
major military powers. Russia, China and the US are already seeking to
outdo each other in creating new algorithms and gaining access to
critical technologies for autonomous AI, such as high-end microchips.
Increasingly capable AI coupled with the proliferation of drone swarms may thus lead to “flash wars,” wherein autonomous weapons systems react against each other in an uncontrolled chain reaction of escalation.
thedrive | Wargames
that the U.S. Air Force has conducted itself and in conjunction with
independent organizations continue to show the immense value offered by swarms of relatively low-cost networked drones with high degrees of autonomy.
In particular, simulations have shown them to be decisive factors in
the scenarios regarding the defense of the island of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
Last
week, David Ochmanek, a senior international affairs and defense
researcher at the RAND Corporation and a former Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Force Development during President Barack
Obama's administration, discussed the importance of unmanned platforms
in Taiwan Strait crisis-related wargaming that the think tank has done
in recent years. Ochmanek offered his insight during an online chat,
which you can watch in full below, hosted by the Air & Space Forces
Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
"I’m
sure most everybody on this line has thought extensively about what
conflict with China might look like. We think that, as force planners,
we think that an invasion of Taiwan is the most appropriate scenario to
use because of China’s repeatedly expressed desire to forcibly reincorporate Taiwan
into the mainland if necessary and because of the severe time crunch
that would be associated with defeating an invasion of Taiwan," Ochmanek
offered as an introduction to RAND's modeling. "U.S. and allied forces
may have as few as a week to 10 days to either defeat this invasion or
accept the fait accompli. And the Chinese understand that if
they’re to succeed in this, they either have to deter the United States
from intervening or radically suppress our combat operations in the
theater."
Ochmanek
explained that the Chinese military has amassed a wide array of capable
anti-access and area denial capabilities in the past two decades or so
that would be brought to bear either to deter or engage any American
forces, and their allies and partners, that might seek to respond to an
invasion of Taiwan. This includes a diverse arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles that could be used to neutralize U.S. bases across the Pacific region, anti-satellite weapons to destroy or degrade various American space-based assets, and dense integrated air defense networks bolstered by capable combat aircraft, among other things.
"With all of this, our forces are going to be confronted with the need
to not just gain air superiority, which is always a priority for the
commander, but to actually reach into this contested battlespace, ...and
find the enemy and engage the enemy’s operational center of gravity –
those hundreds of ships carrying the amphibious forces across Strait,
the airborne air assault aircraft carrying light infantry across the
Strait," he continued. There will be a need to "do that even in the
absence of air superiority, which is a very different concept of
operations from what our forces have operated with in the post-Cold War
era."
covertactionmagazine | April 1st was a good news/bad news kind of day for U.S. military drone-maker General Atomics. First, it was reported
that the government of Australia had revealed that they were canceling
the planned purchase of 12 MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones, made by General
Atomics (GA). Since the deal would have been worth a cool one billion dollars to GA, this was definitely the bad news.
Back in January, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) handed GA
$1.5 million to fly the 79-ft. 12,000 lbs SkyGuardian over North Dakota
for 10 hours. (GA apparently didn’t feel the need for a press release
and the resulting news article until the day before some bad news from down under was in the pipeline.)
The stated purpose of the FAA grant to GA was “to research Detect and
Avoid (DAA) capabilities.” (DAA, the ability for an unmanned aircraft
to ‘detect’ another aircraft, and ‘avoid’ it, is the Holy Grail of drone
integration. “Integration” is the process of removing restrictions
against drones operating in domestic U.S. airspace.)
That’s right—the FAA was PAYING a U.S. arms manufacturer $1.5 million
in public monies to demonstrate their newest military surveillance
drone over domestic U.S. territory.
If this is all a surprise to you, you’re not alone. The program to
integrate military drones into U.S. domestic airspace has been operating
for 10 years. It involves various federal agencies—DoD, FAA, NASA,
Commerce, Energy, DHS, etc. But it hasn’t been reported on in any major
news venue since the day before the bill creating it was signed into law in 2012 by then-President Barack Obama.
sciencealert | In theory, there are myriad real-world applications, including aerial
mapping for conservation and disaster relief work. But the technology
has needed to mature so that flying robots can adapt to new environments
without crashing into one another or objects, thus endangering public
safety.
Drone swarms have been tested in the past, but either in
open environments without obstacles, or with the location of those
obstacles programmed in, Enrica Soria, a roboticist at the Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology Lausanne, who was not involved in the research,
told AFP.
"This is the first time there's a swarm of drones
successfully flying outside in an unstructured environment, in the
wild," she said, adding the experiment was "impressive".
The
palm-sized robots were purpose-built, with depth cameras, altitude
sensors, and an on-board computer. The biggest advance was a clever
algorithm that incorporates collision avoidance, flight efficiency, and
coordination within the swarm.
Since these drones do not rely on any outside infrastructure, such as GPS, swarms could be used during natural disasters.
For
example, they could be sent into earthquake-hit areas to survey damage
and identify where to send help, or into buildings where it's unsafe to
send people.
It's certainly possible to use single drones in such
scenarios, but a swarm approach would be far more efficient, especially
given limited flight times.
Another possible use is having the swarm collectively lift and deliver heavy objects.
There's
also a darker side: swarms could be weaponized by militaries, just as
remote-piloted single drones are today. The Pentagon has repeatedly
expressed interest and is carrying out its own tests.
"Military
research is not shared with the rest of the world just openly, and so
it's difficult to imagine at what stage they are with their
development," said Soria.
But advances shared in scientific journals could certainly be put to military use.
Coming soon?
The
Chinese team tested their drones in different scenarios – swarming
through the bamboo forest, avoiding other drones in a high-traffic
experiment, and having the robots follow a person's lead.
"Our work was inspired by birds that fly smoothly in a free swarm through even very dense woods," wrote Zhou in a blog post.
The challenge, he said, was balancing competing demands: the
need for small, lightweight machines, but with high-computational power,
and plotting safe trajectories without greatly prolonging flight time.
thedrive | China
looks to have launched an odd mini-aircraft carrier of sorts that is
intended to launch and recover small aerial drones earlier this year. A
model of this catamaran vessel appeared at this year's Zhuhai Airshow,
where it was ostensibly described as a platform for mimicking enemy
"electronic" systems during training exercises. This ship will be able
to simulate hostile drone swarms, along with other kinds of threats,
such as high-volume anti-ship missile strikes and distributed electronic warfare attacks. It also reflects the Chinese military's interest in operational swarming capabilities, and especially in the maritime domain.
Earlier this week, Twitter user @HenriKenhmann, who runs the website East Pendulum, was able to find a picture online
of the ship during an apparent launch ceremony in May. The photograph
shows an unusual cartoon shark motif painted on the outside of one of
the ship's twin hulls, very similar to what was seen on the model at
Zhuhai. This model has received more recent attention as it was
displayed alongside one depicting a rail-based training aid that has
also turned out to be in operational use, as you can read more about here.
There was a small sign next to the model at Zhuhai with descriptions of
the ship in Chinese and English. Available pictures of the sign do not
provide a clear view of all of the English text, but part of it reads
"Multifunctional Integrated Electronic Blue Army System." In Chinese
military parlance, mock opponents in training exercises are referred to
as the "Blue Army."
This is in direct contrast to how the U.S. military and other western
armed forces describe generic simulated enemies as the "Red Force."
Based
on this description, and from what we can see of the ship's design and
that of the drones on its deck, it's not hard to imagine how it might be
employed in maritime exercises both far out to sea and in littoral
areas. For realistic training against swarms, it would be necessary to
sortie lots of drones at once.
Beyond that, the unmanned helicopters could pump out signals
reflecting the signatures of various kinds of missiles, or even just
waves of manned or unmanned aircraft. The rotary-wing drones would be
fitted with electronic warfare systems to carry out electronic attacks,
as well. All of this would provide a relatively low-cost way to
simulate swarms, along with other kinds of aerial threats during drills,
and do so across a broad area.
The
large open decks on the ship in front of and behind the superstructure
might provide room for the addition of other capabilities. Catapults or
static launchers for fixed-wing drones, including those designed specifically as targets,
as well as recovery systems, could be installed in those spaces to
expand the kinds of threats the vessel would be to simulate.
The hearings included testimony from Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and SecurityRonald S. Moultrie, the Pentagon's top intelligence official, and Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence
Scott Bray. Bray stated that the number of "frequent and continuing"
reported sightings had grown to about 400 since last year's mandated
report.[6][7][8]
He cast out the notion that the UFOs had extraterrestrial origins,
testifying that no organic/inorganic material or unexplainable wreckage
indicated so.[5][9]
Bray added that there had been no attempts at communication with the
objects, and that despite at least 11 "near-misses", no collisions
between unidentified aircraft and U.S. aircraft had been reported so
far.[10][11]
It was revealed that other countries had similar reports on UFOs,
and that a number of them communicated with U.S. intelligence agencies,
although Moultrie told lawmakers that they did want "potential
adversaries to know exactly what we see or understand."[5] He also mentioned the need for cooperation with the Federal Aviation Administration as well as other government agencies.[8]
Moultrie stated that most UFOs could be identified through "rigorous"
analysis and investigation, but pointed out a number of incidents that
defied explanation, such as a 2004 sighting where aircraft carrier
pilots in the Pacific came across a hovering unidentified object that
appeared to have descended tens of thousands of feet.[6][12][13]
Lawmakers were shown declassified images and footage of UFOs,
including a video of a UFO observed by a Navy fighter-jet pilot in
2021, a "spherical object" that "quickly passes by the cockpit of the
aircraft." Another video captured triangular objects (speculated to be
drones) floating off the coast as seen through night-vision goggles.[5][6][14]
A number of lawmakers, including Rick Crawford (R-AR), expressed concerns about potential Russian or Chinese hypersonic weapons programs.[5][15] He warned that a failure to identify such threats was "tantamount to intelligence failure that we certainly want to avoid".[15]
The standardization of the civilian reporting process was also
discussed, as the majority of reports in the military's database are
from military officers.
The public portion of the hearing, held in the morning and
lasting less than 90 minutes, was followed by private classified session
in the afternoon.[15][5]
bloomberg | In video reviews
of the latest drone models to his 80,000 YouTube subscribers, Indiana
college student Carson Miller doesn’t seem like an unwitting tool of
Chinese spies.
Yet that’s how the U.S. is increasingly viewing
him and thousands of other Americans who purchase drones built by
Shenzhen-based SZ DJI Technology Co.,
the world’s top producer of unmanned aerial vehicles. Miller, who
bought his first DJI model in 2016 for $500 and now owns six of them,
shows why the company controls more than half of the U.S. drone market.
“If tomorrow DJI were completely banned,” the 21-year-old said, “I would be pretty frightened.”
Critics of DJI warn the dronemaker may be channeling reams of
sensitive data to Chinese intelligence agencies on everything from
critical infrastructure like bridges and dams to personal information
such as heart rates and facial recognition. But to Miller, consumers
face plenty of bigger threats to the privacy of their data. “There are
apps that track you on your smartphone 24/7,” he said.
That attitude is a problem for American officials who are seeking
to end DJI’s dominance in the U.S. On Thursday, the Biden
administration blocked American investment in the company, a year after President Donald Trump prohibited it from
sourcing U.S. parts. Now, lawmakers from both parties are weighing a
bill that would ban federal purchases of DJI drones, while a member of
the Federal Communications Commission wants its products taken off the
market in the U.S. altogether.
In many ways, DJI has become the poster child of a much wider
national security threat: The Chinese government’s ability to obtain
sensitive data on millions of Americans. In recent weeks, former top
officials in both the Obama and Trump administrations have warned that
Beijing could be scooping up personal information on the citizens of
rival nations, while walling off data on China’s 1.4 billion people.
“Each new piece of information, by itself, is relatively unimportant,” Oona Hathaway, a professor at Yale Law School who served in the Pentagon under President Barack Obama, wrote
in Foreign Affairs, referring to surveillance and monitoring
technologies. “But combined, the pieces can give foreign adversaries
unprecedented insight into the personal lives of most Americans.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been far ahead of the West in
realizing the importance of data in gaining both an economic and
military advantage, according to Matt Pottinger, a former deputy
national security adviser in the Trump Administration. “If Washington
and its allies don’t organize a strong response, Mr. Xi will succeed in
commanding the heights of future global power,” he wrote in a
co-authored New York Times op-ed last month.
The data battle strikes at the heart of the U.S.-China strategic
competition, and has the potential to reshape the world economy over the
coming decades — particularly as everything from cars to yoga mats to toilets
are now transmitting data. Harnessing that information is both key to
dominating technologies like artificial intelligence that will drive the
modern economy, and crucial for exploiting weaknesses in
strategic foes.
thedrive | Earlier this year The War Zone exclusively reported about a series of 2019 incidents that involved unidentified drones stalking US Navy vessels
over several nights in the waters off of Southern California. Our
initial report also covered the Navy’s investigation into the incidents,
which appeared to struggle to identify either the aircraft or their
operators. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Michael Gilday later
clarified that the aircraft were never identified, and that there have been similar incidents across the service branches and allied militaries.
Newly
released documents obtained via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
show that the full scope of these drone incursions was greater than it
initially appeared, and they persisted well after the Navy’s
investigation was launched. Deck logs indicate that drone sightings
continued throughout the month of July 2019 and included events where
drone countermeasure teams were called into action. One notable event
involved at least three ships observing multiple drones.
Uncharacteristically for unclassified deck logs, the details on this
event are almost entirely redacted.
It is also noteworthy that these events occurred well after Navy investigators sought to “correlate or rule out operations”
with Fleet Area Control and Surveillance Facility (FACSFAC) based in
San Diego. Indeed, an investigation began immediately after the initial
events on July 16th, with information on the incidents being routed to
the Chief of Naval Operations as early as July 18th. Given the progress
of the investigation, more prosaic causes like errant US aircraft or
civilian activity had already been examined. Whatever the outcome of the
July 30th event, it was likely closely scrutinized by Navy leadership.
The
lack of concrete identification of the aircraft involved also led to
widespread public speculation earlier this year. Leaked photos and
videos said to pertain to the July 15th and 16th incident were released
this summer by filmmaker Jeremy Corbell.
The materials consisted of footage of radar screens showing multiple
unknown contacts, video of an object apparently falling into the ocean,
and a brief video of a triangular-shaped light flying over the deck of a
ship. The apparent triangular shape of the object has been strongly debated, as many have posited it was the result of a common optical artifact.
The Department of Defense was quick to partially authenticate
the material, acknowledging that the videos were taken by Navy
personnel. However, to date, the Pentagon has not provided any details
that corroborate the location or timeframe of the footage or any
clarification on what the objects were. Corbell maintains that the
videos depict extraordinarily complex vehicles capable of “transmedium”
travel, or the ability to traverse both water and the atmosphere with
ease. Chief of Naval Operations Michael Gilday explained in a press
briefing earlier this year that while the Navy had not positively
identified the aircraft, there were no indications they were extraterrestrial in nature.
There has been significant overlap in the discussion of the mounting threat from lower-end drones and resurgent interest in UFOs in recent years. That overlap is conspicuous in the recent National Defense Authorization Act language,
which authorizes an expansive approach to the Pentagon’s study of UFOs.
The language, introduced by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York
Democrat, creates a requirement for conducting “field investigations,”
as well as new mandates to scientifically examine UFO reports. An
amended version of Gillibrand's proposal was ultimately adopted in the
NDAA and awaits President Biden's signature. While many have focused on
otherworldly explanations for UFO sightings, Senator Gillibrand told Politico
that the rationale for her interest encompassed conventional and
emerging technology and not only the “unknown.” She explained, “you're
talking about drone technology, you're talking about balloon technology,
you're talking about other aerial phenomena, and then you're talking
about the unknown.”
The urgency surrounding the drone issue has been a growing focus among defense policymakers as encounters with both civilian and military aircraft
have become widespread. In the last five years the Federal Aviation
Administration has gathered approximately ten thousand drone incident
reports. We have made many of these reports available in an interactive tool that maps the location and descriptions of the incident.
Far
from being only a domestic issue, drones have also become a matter of
grave concern for military leaders. Earlier this year Marine General
Kenneth McKenzie Jr. said in a speech to the Middle East Institute that “the growing threat posed by these systems
coupled with our lack of dependable, networked capabilities to counter
them is the most concerning tactical development since the rise of the
improvised explosive device in Iraq.” McKenzie also explained that
drones “provide adversaries the operational ability to surveil and
target U.S. and partner facilities while affording plausible deniability
and a disproportionate return on the investment, all in our
adversaries’ favor.”
In
the case of the 2019 Southern California incidents, several of these
factors appear to be at work. The newly released map clarifies just how
closely drones were shadowing Navy ships, likely affording opportunities
to gather a variety of valuable intelligence. The lack of positive
attribution of the aircraft even today speaks to McKenzie’s comments
about plausible deniability and disproportionate return.
warontherocks | If China really intends to invade Taiwan, it is going to have to make
a massive investment in amphibious capability that dwarfs even its
current buildup. While it is impossible to accurately assess the
condition and organization of their logistics and support forces using
open sources, it is entirely possible to look at their capacity instead
of making assessments of capability. Using Operation Husky as a baseline
to characterize the execution of a successful amphibious assault on an
island, it is possible to make some degree of comparison that goes well
beyond lists of fielded equipment.
All told, it’s entirely clear that China lacks the capacity to match
the American assault wave against Sicily, to say nothing of the entire
Allied effort that included British and Canadian forces. While an
analysis of the carrying capacity of the commercial vessels belonging to
China (and Hong Kong) is beyond the scope of this paper, these ships
are next to useless in an assault phase and come into play only if
adequate, intact port facilities are captured.
Furthermore, the degree of fire support required to deal with
counterattacks against the beachhead is illustrated well by the
successful American fire support off Gela, which today is impossible to
replicate by any navy; even airpower lacks the capability to deliver the
necessary volume of fire, particularly over time. And of course, the
enemy gets a vote. The Americans landed among small towns manned by weak
garrisons with a population that did not muster significant opposition
and was unsympathetic to their own government. In Taiwan, as in Ukraine,
invaders should realistically expect an aroused and angry population
with a sizable and modern military willing to contest every inch of
heavily urbanized territory. It’s here where the comparison to Sicily
breaks down, and capacity questions aside, the idea of landing into an
urban area and expecting any other result than an early and bloody defeat seems ludicrous. China would be lucky were it in a position akin to Allied forces when they assaulted Sicily.
This assessment is focused on the ability of the People’s Republic of
China to execute a successful assault, but there is no question that
they could launch an unsuccessful one. Absent the disaster at the French
port of Dieppe in 1942, Western military forces have few examples of
amphibious operations that failed at the shoreline; there is room for
Beijing to create one. What one side views as military reality may not
be perceived as such by the other side, a truism that we are seeing play
out graphically in Ukraine right now. Chinese involvement in Korea and
later in the Sino-Vietnamese war illustrates that Party political
imperatives may well override sound military advice, at least until the
level of military failure becomes too high to paper over. The Chinese
Communist Party believes, as an article of faith, that the superior
morale, commitment, and willingness to sacrifice that they expect in the
PLA will carry the day against an adversary that might be more capable
on paper. Given the differing assessments of the actual correlation of
forces, the PRC may well assess that they could avoid Russia’s mistakes and carry out a successful assault.
The Republic of China has been planning to resist a PRC assault for more than 70 years. Jeff Hornung writes
that in the same way that the United States and NATO bolstered
Ukrainian defenses before the 2022 Russian invasion, it would be
possible to bolster Taiwan’s defenses with a tailored mix of hardware
and training, backed with a newly-discovered economic stick that might
reasonably act as an additional, non-military deterrent. The defense of
Taiwan is not a burden the Republic of China need shoulder alone, and an
expanded, overt, American advisory effort might well provide both an
improved deterrent and a much more lethal defense, should deterrence
fail.
al-jazeera | As fighting drags on, the government, with its tiny air force of 22
combat-capable aircraft, seems to have also realised that air power and
timely intelligence can make all the difference in a conflict –
especially one fought over vast and often mountainous areas like in
Ethiopia’s north. Although there has been no official confirmation,
analysts have pointed to credible reports
saying Ahmed’s government has reached out in recent months to
manufacturers of cheap and efficient armed drones hoping that air power
will turn the tide in its way.
Photographic evidence has pointed to the presence of Chinese Wing Loong 2 Unarmed Aerial Vehicles or UAVs at Ethiopian military bases, while a Bellingcat investigation
in August found strong indications that Iranian armed drones, along
with their ground control stations, had been spotted at Semera Airport.
The government has also reportedly reached out to Turkey and requested a
number of Bayraktar TB2 drones. These are relatively cheap and
combat-proven and have been decisively used over several battlefields in
recent years.
Drones, or UAVs, bring several desirable capabilities together in one neat package.
They are principally security cameras in the sky and are able to beam
high-definition real-time imagery back to the headquarters. Once a
target has been identified, it can be destroyed on the spot by the
guided munitions carried by the drones.
This potent mix of intelligence gathering, reconnaissance and strike
capability can be decisive in a conflict, if the drones are used
properly.
The country with the most operational experience in using drones in conventional military conflicts is Turkey.
Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 armed UAV is the one drone that has stood out
in recent conflicts. It does not carry many weapons, nor does it travel
that fast or very far – but these can also be advantages.
The slow flight speed means the drones can loiter easily for hours,
focusing on details reconnaissance jets would be hard-pressed to
identify. Their short range means they can quickly return to base for
refuelling and rearming, being back over the target area in just a
matter of hours.
The TB2s’ low relative cost and reliability allow several to be flown
at once and enables the maintenance of a near-constant presence over
the battlespace, meaning that surprise tactics by one’s adversary will
be spotted and much less likely to succeed. Turkish advisers and
training staff bring a wealth of knowledge on how to successfully use
these systems.
Turkey’s defence and aerospace exports to Ethiopia leapt in the first
three months of 2021 to $51m, with further increases in August and
September. The TB2s decisive use in three recent conflicts – western
Libya, northern Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh – showcased their abilities
and the move by drones from effective counterterrorism tools to potent
weapons on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has visited Addis Ababa
and has made it clear that China backs Ethiopia’s government fully.
This, in contrast to the United States which has imposed sanctions on
Ethiopia, but not on the rebellious Tigray.
As Bloomberg reports: The
US last month suspended duty-free access to its exports “because of
gross human rights violations,” which remain undocumented for the most
part.
The US has shown no interest in atrocities by Tigray forces, nor the
theft of UN-sponsored relief supplies taken by the retreating Tigray
army.
China is also supplying weapons to the Ethiopian National Defense
Forces (ENDF), including armed, medium-altitude, long-endurance Wing Loong drones.
Sensing the significant vacuum left in Ethiopia, Iran is also supplying its Muhajer-6 armed drones, the same weapons used by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Syria.
The UAE had previously supplied drones and some Israeli weapons to Ethiopia, including Chinese-made Wing Loong’s.
China is clearly exploiting the opening created by the UAE and
jumping in, along with Iran, to push out the UAE (seen incorrectly as a
US proxy) and other Western suppliers and backers.
Ethiopia’s war has recently turned in favor of the government, which
looked nearly defeated a few weeks ago when the Tigray People’s
Liberation Front (TPLF) was about 209 kilometers from the capital Addis
Ababa.
But in a short time, Ethiopia has rallied its army, received
important political and weaponry support from China and Iran, and
apparently changed the course of the war.
The US administration claims it has supported peace negotiations
between the two sides in the conflict, working through African
intermediaries.
But brokering a peace deal in the middle of an undecided conflict is
unlikely to gain traction, not least because Addis Ababa sees talks as a
way to force it to give up territory, even legitimacy, in exchange for
ending the war.
The US says it is neutral in the actual dispute, but American
behavior, including Biden’s imposition of sanctions first on Ethiopia on
September 17 and then on Eritrea on November 12 for assisting Ethiopia
has made it clear whose side the US is on.
In actual fact, the Biden administration opened the door to China and
Iran by convincing Addis Ababa that there was no future with the US or
its allies and partners.
The US has been speaking out of both sides of its mouth, a fact noted by Today News Africa journalist and commentator Simon Ateba.
Ateba points out that
Samantha Power, administrator of USAID, has been condemning Ethiopia in
tweets while others, especially the US envoy for the Horn of Africa
Jeffrey Feltman, have been trying to talk to both sides – although
unsuccessfully.
omna tigray | It has been over a month since the Ethiopian government declared what
it claimed to be a “humanitarian truce,” promising to facilitate
humanitarian access to Tigray. However, since this declaration, less
than 4 percent of the trucks required to address the man-made famine in
Tigray have been allowed to enter the region. The irregular and
piecemeal humanitarian convoys that have been allowed into the region
are severely inadequate in addressing the humanitarian catastrophe that
has been caused by the Ethiopian government’s 10 months-long siege.
Despite the Ethiopian government’s proclaimed commitment to facilitate
humanitarian deliveries to Tigray, aid workers, including Michael
Dunford of the World Food Programme (WFP), report negotiating with
regional authorities for the safe passage of aid convoys. That
humanitarian organizations have to negotiate access with regional
leaders rather than the federal government indicates that the federal
government is either unable or unwilling to exercise control over
regional authorities.
While the federal government and regional authorities continue to
obstruct aid delivery, the man-made famine in Tigray grows more severe.
Previously, the number of trucks of food that needed to enter Tigray was
around 600 a week. In April 2022, a United Nations (UN) official
reported that about 2,000 trucks of food are needed every week to meet
the region’s needs. Without consistent and unhindered humanitarian
deliveries, the scale of the need will continue to increase.
Additionally, farmers’ lack of access to essential agricultural supplies
like seeds and fertilizers means that many will miss the planting
season, leading to poor harvest and a food crisis that will affect the
region for years to come.
The severe food shortage also affects the ability of healthcare
professionals to assist patients in the region. Healthcare professionals
at Ayder Referral Hospital reported in April 2022 that Ayder Hospital,
one of the last functioning hospitals in Tigray, has begun discharging
patients after its food supplies ran out. After completely depleting
their food supplies, doctors revealed that they have had to send
hundreds of patients home, including infants, children, and people
waiting for cancer treatment. In addition to the severe food shortage,
the Ethiopian government’s siege has also prevented medicine and medical
supplies from reaching the region, leaving doctors unable to provide
medical care.
As well as the brutal siege on Tigray, several areas in Tigray remain
under the occupation of brutal invading Eritrean forces and Amhara
regional forces, including Northern and Western Tigray. In these areas,
these forces continue to commit atrocities, among them, forced
displacement and weaponized starvation in Irob district in northeastern
Tigray, and campaigns of ethnic cleansing in Western Tigray, which
comprises of mass arrest, torture, extrajudicial killings, massacres,
weaponized rape, and forced displacement. On April 6, 2022, a joint
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International report on atrocities
committed in Western Tigray detailed the events that have taken place
since November 2020 and labeled them as ethnic cleansing. The Amhara
forces’ illegal occupation of Western Tigray is arguably the largest
barrier to facilitating peace.
Furthermore, the federal government is engaged in or unable to reign
in the numerous conflicts and unrest across the country that threaten to
further destabilize Ethiopia and the broader East Africa region. The
government is currently waging a military offensive against the Oromo
Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, while clashes between the government
and armed groups have been reported in the Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella,
Somali, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Regions
(SNNPR). The federal government and militias operating across regional
borders have killed hundreds of people, destroyed entire villages, and
deeply traumatized communities across the country. This growing
political instability comes as swaths of Oromia and Somali regions face a
severe drought that threatens hundreds of thousands of people’s lives.
Overall, Ethiopia’s political and humanitarian conditions are
extremely fragile. With Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration
unwilling and unable to address and willfully fueling the multitude of
complex issues that plague the country, the situation is sure to
deteriorate quickly, jeopardizing regional and global security.
foreignpolicy | The United States is pulling the plug on its drone operations in
southern Ethiopia as demands on its fleet of unmanned aircraft expand
elsewhere across the continent with the rise of the Islamic State in
Libya, and extremist militants in Nigeria, Mali, Chad and Cameroon.
Since 2011, the U.S. had been using the air base in Arba Minch, 250
miles south of the capital, to launch surveillance drones aimed at
groups in East Africa with links to al Qaeda. U.S. personnel primarily
focused on al-Shabab, a Somali group which has waged deadly terrorist
attacks across East Africa.
Pentagon officials remained tightlipped on Monday about the reasons
behind the move. Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza, a Defense Department
spokeswoman, said the U.S. and Ethiopia agreed that the continued
presence of the drone base was “not required at this time.”
Some experts say the fight against
Shabab was going well enough that the Pentagon’s Africa Command, or
Africom, had the opportunity to redistribute its scarce resources
elsewhere.
“Shabab remains virulent, but as a significant terrorist threat with
high profile leaders in range for drone attacks, much less so,” said
Peter Pham, director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center.
Other
groups, by contrast, are rapidly gaining strength — and presenting far
more tempting targets for the Pentagon and its drone operators.
In recent months, the Islamic State has consolidated its power in Libya, allowing it to easily move
into the port city of Surt, and now control an estimated 150 miles of
territory along the country’s Mediterranean coast. Its presence has
reportedly forced the U.S. to focus on gathering intelligence there in
order to better monitor militant movements in North Africa.
The continued strength of Boko Haram —
the extremist group terrorizing northeastern Nigeria and parts of
Cameroon, Chad, and Niger — has also forced Washington to dedicate more
resources in the Lake Chad region as well. Since 2009, Boko Haram has
killed more than 10,000 people and by last year the group controlled an
area the size of Belgium. After the militants were forced out of some of
their Nigerian strongholds by a multinational African task force last
spring, they switched to more asymmetrical tactics and increased suicide
bombings and cross border raids. In September, President Barack Obama
pledged $45 million to help countries in the Lake Chad region beat back
the group. And in October, the U.S. sent a fleet of surveillance drones and 300 troops to Cameroon.
Those pressures have forced Africom to reevaluate where it allocates resources, say experts.
“Africom remains under-resourced and our entire drone program,
although it’s grown tremendously over the years, is facing a wide array
of demands,” said Pham.
Jennifer Cooke, director of the Africa
program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, said that the U.S. military is likely facing pressure to
tackle other African threats, and is trying to consolidate its bases in
the region.
“It may be that with a base in Djibouti there’s just not the need for as many positions in East Africa as before,” she said.
medium |The
West’s Horn of Africa experts have been meeting with a TPLF leader and
TPLF/OLF supporters in secret, even as its governments claim to be
impartial — TPLF’s Berhane Gebre-Christos speaks as TPLF member,
proposed head of “transitional government” (limo/Uber drivers) and
Washington-based Ethio-American diaspora.
Donald Yamamoto, recently the U.S. Ambassador to Somalia who just retired this year, to TPLF official Berhane Gebre-Christos:
“Abiy
is not listening… Obasanjo has not been extraordinary helpful or very
active, and so are there any other opportunities that you see?”
Vicki Huddleston,
former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs
and US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa to Berhane
Gebre-Christos:
“I couldn’t agree more that you know, Abiy should step down, there should be an all-inclusive transition government.”
Former
ambassadors and current diplomats for the United States, Britain and EU
had a Zoom meeting this past Sunday with an official for the TPLF in
what amounts to a green light from the West for the terrorist group’s
attempts to overthrow the democratically elected Ethiopian government.
And there’s evidence to prove it: a phone-cam video of the two-hour
meeting.
The
Western powers — Britain, the EU and especially the United States —
have been posturing for months that they have not taken sides in the
conflict and are pushing negotiations only in the interests of peace.
But the Zoom talk rips away the façade, revealing a chummy circle of
foreign policy elite, both retired and still active who mostly know each
other and are in sympathy with TPLF objectives. They include Donald
Yamamoto, one of the U.S. government’s most senior Africa experts who
just retired this year as the American ambassador to Somalia, and
Spain’s diplomat Carmen de la Peña.
Former
EU ambassador to Ethiopia Tim Clarke admitted that all of the
attendants “maintain contacts with our former employees. Just the other
day I was talking to the existing EU ambassador to Ethiopia.”
NC | There’s a simple lesson here: Tigrayans are the bulk of
combat power in the Highlands of the Horn. You’d think that would lead
to the conclusion that you shouldn’t mess with Tigray unless you’re
ready to get in a long, nasty war, even when the conventional military
wisdom is that the Tigrayans don’t have a chance. They weren’t supposed
to have a chance against the Europeans in 1896, either–or the Ethiopian
Derg in the 1980s. If you’re running a war-nerd bookmaking business, put
a sign on the window: “No bets on wars in Tigray.”
One reason we all underestimated Tigray is that no one
outside TPLF circles seems to have admitted to themselves how much of
the combat power of both Eritrean and Ethiopian forces came from ethnic
Tigrayans. Admitting that would be politically unwise, especially in
Ethiopia. Officially, Ethiopia is a federal, multi-ethnic state in which
all ethnic groups are equal. But that’s a polite fiction. The Ethiopian
state is the product of 19th-c. conquests by the “Habesha,” which is
what the Highland Orthodox peoples, Tigrayan and Amhara, call
themselves. Ethiopia was created by Habesha armies pushing south and
east, absorbing Somali, Afar, Oromo, Sidamo, and dozens of other peoples
who became Ethiopian citizens, but had very little share in ruling the
country.
The real struggle for power was always between the two
Habesha peoples, Tigrayan and Amhara. Since Menelik II moved the capital
southward to Shewa, the Amhara seemed like the stronger of the two
groups. Amhara are a much bigger group, for starters. Tigrayans are only
about 6% of the population, Amhara about 26%.
But after the Eritrean/Tigrayan insurgents destroyed the
Derg in the late 20th c., it was the Tigrayans of the TPLF who really
ruled Ethiopia. Their domination was so clear that the TPLF tried to
minimize their power, dutifully talking about their multi-ethnic
coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). No one was fooled; it was the TPLF who had the power in Ethiopia.
The TPLF leader Meles Zenawi was
the ultimate power in the country all through the first two decades of
this century. Zenawi knew that the TPLF was so much better organized
than the other members of the EPRDF coalition that he and his fellow
Tigrayans could let the EPRDF make a show of ethnic equality while
keeping Tigrayan control. Henri IV went through the motions of
converting to Catholicism in return for the throne with the line “Paris
is worth a mass or two,” and Zenawi seems to have decided “Addis and the
whole GDP is worth letting those weaker militias from other ethnic
groups share the credit.”
Zenawi’s PR campaign worked so well that Ethiopians forgot
the hard truth that it was the Tigrayans who had the real combat power.
The Tigrayans’ only rival in terms of military power was the
Eritrean army (EDF.) The “Eritrean” label made people forget that the
EDF is also dominated by ethnic Tigrayans. Tigrinya-speakers are the majority in Eritrea, not only the dominant but the biggest ethnic group.
That has never stopped Eritrean Tigrayans from killing other
Tigrayans. That shouldn’t be a surprise — when have people of the same
ethnic group ever fretted about killing each other? — but it does
underline what seems like the dominant fact at the moment: The Tigrayans
are the most formidable people in the Horn.
kremlin.ru |Vladimir Putin:
Alexei Evgenievich, this year, in December, 15 years have passed since
the law on the creation of the Rosatom Corporation was signed. During this time, a lot of work has been done.
Alexander Likhachev : Yes. We regard the date of the establishment of the state corporation as a very memorable one for us.
In
general, the industry is in its 77th year, we are the same age as the
Great Victory, but at the same time, the creation of the state
corporation marked a completely new stage in the development of the
industry. Indeed, a single
management mechanism was created from a group of enterprises with
common economic indicators, with a unique corporate culture. At
the same time, nuclear competencies were combined - from uranium mining
to the creation and operation of nuclear power plants. And of course, new divisions were created literally from scratch: machine-building, logistics, digital, and a number of others.
If
we talk about performance indicators for 15 years, then you can’t call
it anything other than a “quantum leap”: a 4.5-fold increase in revenue,
a five-fold increase in labor productivity, investments are growing in a
special way - a 15-fold increase in annual investments. Science and research are actively developing, we have 13 times the annual growth of patents.
Over the past five years, we have actively entered new products and the global market. Revenue for five years on new products has almost doubled, foreign revenue has grown by one and a half times.
Vladimir Putin: The most important thing is to increase labor productivity.
Alexander Likhachev: Labor productivity is growing at a faster rate, [faster] than wages, this is very important.
And digital revenue grew a hundredfold. This, of course, with a low base. We will continue to develop, of course.
In the past year, we have a number of regular record indicators. With
the 100% fulfillment of the state defense order, the proceeds reached
1.5 trillion, and this is only in the open part, that is, naturally, we
have much more. The record is 222 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Commissioning of new blocks, the second Leningrad, the first Belarusian blocks. And the Northern Sea Route also set a record of transportation - almost 35 million tons.
We are implementing the decisions taken at your meeting on the Northern Sea Route. Under
the leadership of the Government, we have already moved forward in the
construction of nuclear-powered icebreakers, an ATO [nuclear
technological service] vessel, and in the creation of a unified
navigation management system on the Northern Sea Route. And I hope that in the shortest possible time we will put this work, as they say, on the usual track.
In the first quarter of this year, we have a serious increase: for the same electricity - plus two percent; first-quarter revenue for new products grew 26 percent and foreign products grew 13 percent.
On
the other hand, we understand that we have been living and working
under completely new conditions in recent months and will continue to
work this way, so I would like to draw special attention to a few
points.
Vladimir Putin: Please.
Alexander Likhachev: On international projects. We continue to implement all our international projects as long as they go according to plan. We see the risks with certain individual projects, develop appropriate compensatory measures. I hope that the vast majority of the projects will be successfully completed.
We have reached the second place in uranium mining in the world in recent years. We
confidently hold the first place in terms of enrichment and conversion
and are consistently among the top three in terms of fuel fabrication. In all areas there are groundwork aimed at further development.
We continue cooperation with the IAEA , we participate in the international large thermonuclear project in France (ITER). And
I want to say again that in this sense, the international nuclear
community is not breaking ties yet, as long as this cooperation is
developing.
According to the internal agenda. Our main service, apart from the state defense order, is nuclear energy. In ten years, we have built 11 units and achieved 20 percent of the electricity in the country. You
gave us a plan to increase the share to 25 percent, and by increasing
the share to 25 percent, we have to build another 16 innovation blocks
in the horizon until 2035. The government approved the General Scheme, so we understand where and what to build.
I also want to thank you from the industry for adopting a decree on April 14 to extend our national project until 2030. This
is indeed a very serious decision, it also creates a technological
platform for the fourth generation of nuclear energy, and, most
importantly, gives us the opportunity to build a specific object on
earth. This is the Seversk
project "Breakthrough", this is a multi-purpose fast research reactor,
this is a tokamak fusion facility with reactor technologies, a prototype
of tomorrow's fusion, this is a number of experimental reactors, and,
of course, this is cooperation with Roskosmos, including on rocket
engines for near space, for deep space. All this will be included in the extended national project.
What
is important to emphasize: 95 percent of the Russian nuclear power
plant, as they say, is made in Russia, and five percent are not
critical. We see criticism
at half a percent of our cost – electrical engineering, electronics,
some types of diesel equipment, some types of pumping equipment, and in
principle, we are already creating import substitution alliances with
businesses.
First thought. Russian nuclear technologies are import-independent. And we don't see any limiting factors here.
Second thought. We will place at least a trillion rubles a year outside the industry as orders for the implementation of our national project. This, of course, is a very serious vector for the development of both engineering and the economy as a whole. And
not only, as they say, in large orders, but also in innovation, the
nuclear industry has always been famous for its advanced developments.
Vladimir Putin: Exactly.
A. Likhachev:
I remember very well how in Soviet times, even under the conditions of
the Iron Curtain, both mathematical modeling and work on security
systems developed - all this gave impetus to the creation of a whole
program of new products.
I
myself was surprised to learn that over the past year we have satisfied
the needs of more than 2600 Russian companies and enterprises in
high-tech products, that is, the Russian industry is already returning a
huge stock to us as new innovative orders and directions.
I would like to share the most important of them, in my opinion. At the same meeting on the Arctic, remember, NOVATEK management raised the issue of LNG equipment. We
have built the first test stand in Europe at the Efremov NIIEFA in St.
Petersburg, a solution has been prepared and implemented for cryogenic
heat exchangers. This is the heart of all liquefaction technology. We have learned how to make medium-tonnage ones, and I think we will learn how to make large-tonnage ones as well.
We
are actively receiving requests from the oil and gas industry both for
specific equipment, and in general for new approaches to technologies,
including in the production of hard-to-recover hydrocarbons. Such work is underway, and, for example, we have exemplary cooperation with Gazprom Neft.
We
have completely closed the chain in composites and are moving on to the
production of specific, quite modern medical equipment.
Vladimir Putin: We helped a lot of people with composites right away.
Alexander Likhachev: Yes.
We
are moving forward in digital terms, creating alliances with
enterprises, both small and private Russian companies, large companies,
Rostec, and Russian Railways.
We
ourselves will be two years ahead of your instructions: as early as
2023, one hundred percent of software purchases for critical
infrastructure will be done, and we will generally transfer to Russian
software at a faster pace.
Quantum progressed. We have been working on this topic for two years. According to experts, we have reduced the gap by about half from our foreign partners, competitors somewhere. But in general, in fact, for some technologies they entered the top three. There
is an opinion that a separate type of quants, qudits, is the most
promising for the corresponding processors, and now, along with the USA
and Austria, we have achieved the corresponding prototype of a quantum
processor. And by the way,
they were the first to make a real program, that is, software for a
quantum algorithm in the interests of the nuclear industry.
I cannot but say a few words about the environmental project, this is also a series of your instructions.
A system for controlling industrial waste of the first and second hazard class has been launched, more than 25 thousand users. Seven
factories are being set up on the ground throughout the Russian
Federation for processing, and I am sure that we will put things in
order in this direction.
Plus work with heritage. We completed last September in Chelyabinsk the work on the landfill for household waste. We are going to Krasny Bor for practical work. And all the necessary priority work was carried out both in Usolye-Sibirsky and at the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill.
Vladimir Putin: And what did they do in Usolye-Sibirsky?
Alexei Likhachev: The mercury electrolysis shop has been completely dismantled there, and all the consequences have been eliminated. We started working with the oil lens, where there were dangers of waste going to the Angara. We have prepared all the design work in order to begin full-scale system liquidation this year. There were several dozen extremely dangerous wells, and, in fact, no one knows what was stored in them and in what volumes. Therefore, their neutralization and blocking were also among the priorities.
And in conclusion I would like to say a few words about the team. Indeed, we are not just a technological leader, not just one of the leaders in the global nuclear industry. This is a unique team with its own traditions. We consistently occupy the first places in the ratings of employers. A
very important indicator is engagement, the readiness of people to give
more every day to work, which is at a level that even exceeds the best
world indicators (84 percent). I would like to say that this figure has increased in recent weeks. That
is, there is a certain rallying of the team, and people, rolling up
their sleeves, get to work, see this as their contribution to solving
the problems, the tasks that the country is facing today.
Vladimir Putin: Rosatom is certainly one of our technology leaders. I hope this trend continues.
We talked about materials – we helped many industries at once, from aircraft manufacturing to medicine.
Alexei Likhachev: Mr
Putin, we are now very focused on the machine-building sector, we have
strengthened our machine-building assets, and there are many orders.
And one more thought. The more pressure is put on us, the more work we have, the more the team is mobilized.
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