horowitz on the history of bioterrorism

is china an aggressive "foe" in cyberspace?

Washington Post | One day in late summer 2008, FBI and Secret Service agents flew to Chicago to inform Barack Obama's campaign team that its computer system had been hacked. "You've got a problem. Somebody's trying to get inside your systems," an FBI agent told the team, according to a source familiar with the incident.

The McCain campaign was hit with a similar attack.

The trail in both cases led to computers in China, said several sources inside and outside government with knowledge of the incidents. In the McCain case, Chinese officials later approached staff members about information that had appeared only in restricted e-mails, according to a person close to the campaign.

American presidential campaigns are not the only targets. China is significantly boosting its capabilities in cyberspace as a way to gather intelligence and, in the event of war, hit the U.S. government in a weak spot, U.S. officials and experts say. Outgunned and outspent in terms of traditional military hardware, China apparently hopes that by concentrating on holes in the U.S. security architecture -- its communications and spy satellites and its vast computer networks -- it will collect intelligence that could help it counter the imbalance.

President Obama, who is scheduled to visit China next week, has vowed to improve ties with the Asian giant, especially its military. But according to current and former U.S. officials, China's aggressive hacking has sowed doubts about its intentions.

"This is the way they plan to thwart U.S. supremacy in any potential conflict we get into with them," said Robert K. Knake, a Council on Foreign Relations fellow. "They believe they can deter us through cyber warfare."

Chinese officials deny that and dismiss American concern as a Cold War relic.

189 deaths reported in ukraine - belarus to 223K cases

Recombinomics Commentary 21:32 November 10, 2009

• 1,122,188 Influenza/ARI
• 57,286 Hospitalized
• 189 Deaths

The above numbers are from the latest report from Ukraine. Numbers in all categories continue to rise, The two locations with the biggest increases were Kiev (8062 to 76,285) and Kiev Oblast (6,522 to 56,688). These increases indicate the H1N1 is spreading east and the high numbers in the Kiev region may be associated with the jump of cases in the Gomel region in Belarus, with 48,754 cases in influenza/ARI (see map). Belarus also reported 8 fatal pneumonia cases fro the region, and larger numbers of fatalities had been reported earlier for Minsk. For the entire country, Belarus reported 223,349 cases, further supporting the H1N1 spread in the region.

Although the number of fatalities in Belarus is increasing, and may rival Ukraine, samples were sent to Mill Hill from Ukraine at the beginning of the month, and an announcement of sequencing data has been delayed.

The steady increases of H1N1 cases and hemorrhagic pneumonia deaths in Ukraine, as well as similar numbers reported for Belarus, increase concerns about the sequencing delays.

The sequences should be made public immediately.

anatomy of a bogus subpoena

EFF | How the Government Secretly Demanded the IP Address of Every Visitor to Political News Site Indymedia.us

1. Introduction: Lifting the Fog of Secrecy Surrounding Law Enforcement Surveillance

Secrecy surrounds law enforcement's communications surveillance practices like a dense fog. Particularly shrouded in secrecy are government demands issued under 18 U.S.C. § 2703 of the Stored Communications Act or "SCA" that seek subscriber information or other user records from communications service providers. When the government wants such data from a phone company or online service provider, it can obtain a court order under the SCA demanding the information from the provider, along with a gag order preventing the provider from disclosing the existence of the government's demand. More often, companies are simply served with subpoenas issued directly by prosecutors without any court involvement; these demands, too, are rarely made public. (For more background on how the SCA works, see this section of EFF's Surveillance Self-Defense manual.)


We at EFF, like the public at large, are often left in the dark about what the government's practices in this area look like. However, sometimes — just sometimes — the fog will clear and we'll get a worrisome picture of what the government gets up to behind closed doors. Sometimes this happens when an independent-minded judge publishes an opinion revealing the government's practices, like the judge that first revealed that the government was tracking cell phones without warrants. Other times, someone served with an SCA demand such as a National Security Letter comes to us for legal assistance.

Recently, one such recipient of an SCA demand did come to us, and we're glad she did. The story of that subpoena — to the administrator of www.indymedia.us, an independent activist news site aggregating stories from Indymedia web sites across the country — provides yet another example of how government abuses breed in secrecy. Hopefully this analysis will be helpful to other online service providers who receive such bogus requests masquerading as valid legal process. Fist tap Arnach.

key oil figures distorted by u.s. pressure

Guardian | The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

dr. henry niman (recombinomics) on the ukraine outbreak

KBOO | Theresa Mitchell interviews Dr. Henry Niman, Ph.D., internationally known viral researcher, on the progress of Swine Flu and the outbreak in Ukraine. Media hoopla or not, it's a dangerous pandemic and is about to grow more so; the numbers from the Ukraine have been spun.
Length: 27:20 minutes (25.03 MB)
Format: MP3 Mono 44kHz 128Kbps (CBR)

ukraine h1n1 registers on MSM radar

They had not heard of the H1N1 virus even a week ago. But they are pretty sure they understand it now.

"You catch it from imported food and clothing that isn't clean," said Mr. Barsadanyan, an 18-year-old first-year medical student who wears his close-cropped hair shaved into stripes along the sides.

He is not worried because he heard that the Ministry of Health has taken a somewhat unusual step. "They sprayed the city," he explained, "with the necessary products."

Globe-and-Mail | Ukraine has been awash with such misinformation about H1N1 for the last week, since Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko set off a public panic by shutting schools, banning public gatherings and warning that whole cities might have to be quarantined to prevent the spread of the disease. They were the most draconian measures taken by any country since the flu first appeared in Mexico last spring.

But it is still far from clear whether Ukraine is in the grips of a runaway H1N1 epidemic, as some officials have suggested, or whether the precautions were a confused overreaction to a predictable winter outbreak of seasonal flu.

The numbers coming from different government agencies and state media have been wildly contradictory.

Depending on the source, the number of reported cases of flu and respiratory illness last month ranged from under 7,000 all the way up to half a million, with no indication of how many people normally fall ill or die from the flu in the winter in this country of 40 million people.

The Ministry of Health has also issued conflicting information on the number of flu cases, flu-related deaths and suspected deaths due to the H1N1 virus. At one point, according to a state news agency report, a ministry official said flu deaths were down 10 per cent over last year.

An initial assessment from the World Health Organization - which sent a team of medical experts to Ukraine after a desperate plea for emergency aid from the country's President - was that the H1N1 virus could be confirmed as the cause of one of some 80 reported deaths from flu in the past two weeks.

The inconsistencies only increased public uncertainty about what was actually happening, and many Ukrainians appeared to have decided to prepare for the worst.

timeline on WHO silence on ukraine H1N1 sequences..,

Recombinomics | "There are a lot of unknowns," he said. The crew of experts will collect samples from patients and send them to the WHO's influenza collaborating center in London for diagnosis. The WHO may have more information on Nov. 4, Hartl said.

The above comments were made on Oct 30. The WHO update of the next day indicated that H1N1 had already been confirmed in two labs in Kyviv and samples were being sent to a WHO collaborating center, Mill Hill. Since H1N1 had already been lab confirmed twice, and multiple reports of symptoms of fatal cases left little doubt that the patients had died from hemorrhagic pneumonia, the main unknown question was the sequence of the H1N1. Thus, it seemed likely that comments on sequences would be made on Nov 4.

In the Nov 3 update, WHO acknowledged that the samples had been received in Mill Hill and it seemed that data would soon be announced, baring sample degradation. When Mill Hill announce confirmation of H1N1 in 15 samples it seemed likely that sequence results would soon follow.

There was no announcement on Nov 4, but there was a press conference on Nov 5, indicating that analysis was still ongoing, but there were no "big mutations" and the virus was antiviral sensitive. Thus, at least the initial sequencing of all eight gene segments had been completed and an initial analysis had already been made.

If there were no obvious changes, it seems that an announcement would have been made last week. The number of cases was approaching 1 million (see map), and the number of fatalities had already exceeded 100, including six health care workers. The infections were spreading east toward Kyviv and neighboring countries had an excessive number of cases, and deaths were mounting in Belarus.

This morning a clinical description of 90 fatal cases again supported hemorrhagic pneumonia, which once again raised concern about genetic changes.

However, there has only been silence on the sequences and they have not been made public. These delays suggest significant changes have been found, and these changes are undergoing further analysis, such as receptor binding testing.

An update on the sequences is long overdue.

total lung destruction...,

Recombinomics | The symptoms are observed at different stages of disease - a fever with a temperature over 38 C, cough, respiratory disorders. When cough was characterized by negligible allocation phlegm or dry unproductive cough with blotches of blood. All the patients come to hospital on average by 3-7 days of onset, were in serious condition. Period of time from onset to death averaged from 4 to 7 days. In all patients during a hospital for signs of respiratory insufficiency of various degrees, which quickly rose and manifested accelerated respiration rate, shortness of breath and effectiveness of independent breathing. X-ray studies were performed on 1-2 day hospitalization. Most patients experienced a double-headed particles of lower lung lesion, followed by a trend towards total destruction.

The above translation is from an announcement today from the Ukraine Ministry of Health describe 90 fatalities (see map) associated with community acquired pneumonia. The full report included the age distribution, which exactly match distribution reported previously by other countries for swine H1N1. 52/90 fatalities were in the age group of 19-40, followed by 26/90 in the 41-55 age group.

Coughing up blood followed the "total destruction" of lungs again gives a clinical picture of hemorrhagic pneumonia caused by H1N1 swine flu.

However, although the 90 recent fatalities described above are clearly due to H1N1, many reports continue to cite a low number of H1N1 lab confirmed cases, which is more reflective of limited testing than actual cases.

Earlier reports cited pneumonia deaths not associated with the influenza/ARI category and the basis for the classification of approximately half of such deaths into a separate category remains unclear.

The above description of these fatalities increase the need for the immediate release of sequences from H1N1 isolated from the lungs of these fatal cases.

Samples were sent to Mill Hill a week ago and only a minimal description (no "large" changes and no anti-viral resistance) of the sequence data. As the number of reports of sequences with receptor binding domain changes in isolates from lungs of fatal H1N1 cases increase, the need for full and rapid disclosure of sequences from large outbreaks such as the one in Ukraine become a major health care imperative.

teenaged wasteland...,

CNN | Americans of all ages are being hurt by the weak job market, but the nation's teens are in a particularly bad spot.

The unemployment rate for teenagers in the labor force soared to 27.6% in October, up 1.8 percentage points from the month before and hitting a third straight record high, the Labor Department said Friday.

That compares with a 10.2% jobless rate for the nation at large.

"What we're seeing is a very tough market for everyone, but teens in particular who are looking for work just can't seem to find it," said Jim Borbely, an economist at Labor Department.

The surge in unemployment among 16 to 19 year-olds comes as the weak economy has forced a growing number of adults to compete for jobs that teens normally fill in industries such as retail and food service.

That's a big problem for teens, who are generally seen as less qualified than adults because they have fewer years of work experience.

At the same time, older workers with families and mortgages typically elicit more sympathy from employers than teens, who are seen as mostly interested in pocket money.

Given the challenges facing teens in the workforce, many have chosen to give up looking for a job altogether.

unemployment....,

Automatic Earth | US unemployment is over 10%. 10.2% to be exact. Then again, looking at how these numbers are arrived at, how exact is exact? The 10.2% stat is just the U3 count, which is very favorable for any incumbent government. It's also very deceptive, since it ignores many people who are not working even if they would like to.

A reminder:

* U3 consists of "Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force."

* U6 consists of

• U3
• + "Discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
• + Other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
• + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can't due to economic reasons.

If you add all those not counted in U3 but added in U6, US unemployment has hit 17.5%. Now we're talking crisis territory. And I don't mean economic crisis, but societal crisis. You can't successfully run an economic system and society like the US has, and leave out more than 1 out of every 6 people willing and able to work.

u.s. foreclosure activity

why more people don't "walk away" from their mortgages

Sacbee | A fellow business writer here at the paper received this report today from a University of Arizona associate law professor he's interviewed in the past. It a full-scale look at why people stay in their homes even when they are way underwater - when the sensible business decision might be to walk away.

I haven't yet read most of it. But I think it's very relevant here in Sacramento.

The 54-page study by Professor Brent T. White, titled, "Underwater and Not Walking Away: Shame, Fear and the Social Management of the Housing Crisis" is at this link.

Here is the summary:

"Despite reports that homeowners are increasingly "walking away" from their mortgages, most homeowners continue to make their payments even when they are significantly underwater.

This article suggests that most homeowners choose not to strategically default as a result of two emotional forces: 1) the desire to avoid the shame and guilt of foreclosure; and 2) exaggerated anxiety over foreclosure's perceived consequences.

Moreover, these emotional constraints are actively cultivated by the government and other social control agents in order to encourage homeowners to follow social and moral norms related to the honoring of financial obligations - and to ignore market and legal norms under which strategic default might be both viable and the wisest financial decision.

Norms governing homeowner behavior stand in sharp contrast to norms governing lenders, who seek to maximize profits or minimize losses irrespective of concerns of morality or social responsibility. This norm asymmetry leads to distributional inequalities in which individual homeowners shoulder a disproportionate burden from the housing collapse."

ukraine update

where's the MSM on this?

international bioterrorism tabletop exercise

Interpol | In September 2009, senior law enforcement officials, health care professionals and experts from international organizations joined their forces to confront a chilling crisis – the plague had just been unleashed on their countries by unknown evildoers.

A fictional scenario with a serious aim

Fortunately, this terrifying situation was a scenario under control, and the civilian authorities were all participants in a Tabletop Exercise on Preventing Bioterrorism hosted by INTERPOL. This exercise simulated a global bioterrorism attack and its aftermath. Participants in the Black Death scenario were faced with a fictional, intentional plague attack involving countries from their region, with the exercise designed to assist them in identifying critical co-operation and co-ordination issues which could hinder a quick and successful response to such an attack in real life.

The idea behind this exercise, the third in a series organized by INTERPOL, has been described by the Organization's Secretary General, Ronald K. Noble, as “helping focus our joint understanding of the role and responsibility of each of us – police, health care professionals, experts – in response to a bioterrorism incident, as well as identifying possible gaps or redundancies so that we can draw lessons from them.”

Inter-agency co-operation in Central and Eastern Europe

Organized by the INTERPOL Bioterrorism Unit, this third edition of the event took place from 29-30 September in Warsaw, Poland. Participants in the workshop numbered 27 from six Central and Eastern European countries (Belarus, Czech Republic, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine), as well as 15 participants from international organizations such as Europol, the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Centre for Disease Control, the European Commission (Directorate General for Health and Consumer Affairs and Directorate General for Justice, Freedom and Security), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

u.s. to donate 1/10th of its H1N1 vaccine to ukraine

Kyiv Post | "In an effort to stop the global spread of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus, the United States is planning to donate 10 percent of US domestic H1N1 vaccine supply, as it becomes available, to a WHO-led H1N1 vaccine initiative. The US donation to WHO, equivalent to 25 million doses of vaccine, would be valued commercially at approximately $10 million," the embassy said in a statement.

As part of the first phase of this initiative, Ukraine is scheduled to receive 930, 000 doses of H1N1 vaccine in early December, the embassy said.

"Planning to complement this donation with a broad range of interventions to support the safe delivery and deployment of the vaccines, the US government will be working closely with the government of Ukraine in the days ahead to identify needs and agree on a package of immunization-related commodity and technical support that can be implemented rapidly to support H1N1 immunization," the statement reads.

Besides, the US government is prepared to make available immunization ancillary materials such as syringes, needles, and vaccine safety disposal boxes, to provide technical support for immunization planning as well as for logistics and assistance to transport the vaccine, to train vaccinators and other professionals, and to prepare communications materials in support of the immunization campaign.

yushchenko team unveils sinister plans for declaring state of emergency

Zik | Speaking live on the popular 5th TV Kanal Nov. 6, the secretary of the national security and defense council, NSDC, Rayisa Bohatyryova, said the number of flue victims is so large it may be necessary to declare the state of emergence to effectively deal with the outbreak. [According to the health ministry, as of Nov. 5, there were 13 cases of the swine flue by a London lab. The number of Ukrainian who died from all kinds of flue and cold stands at about 100, or fewer than in 2008 – Ed.].

The constitution gives enough legal ground for Yushchenko to declare the emergency, Bohatyryova claimed.

As the country’s politicians cannot join their forced to combat the flue epidemic, the state of emergency may help to do this, Bohatyryova continued. All the causes of why Ukraine found itself amid the flue hurricane must be investigated and perpetrators be brought to account. But the punishment can come later. Not it is important to help the population and not to sow panic, the official summed up.

Another Yushchenko insider, his deputy chief of staff Ihor Popov believes the uncontrolled swine flue epidemic is a good enough reason for putting off the presidential election till May 30, Popov writes in his article “Elections lead to swine scenario” published by the Ukrayinska Pravda.

The flue outbreak has radically changed the course of presidential campaigning in Ukraine. It affected campaign priorities, played havoc with campaign plans, leading candidates’ teams to revise spin tactics to hype their candidates, Popov said.

In his opinion, the outbreak in Ukraine was quite timely, as without all the hubbub and rhetoric about the flue the ratings of presidential candidates would not have changed even by Feb. 7. It is the full-sized epidemic, when all Ukrainians are involved with their emotions and panic, that can affect the voting results, the official claimed.

Popov ruled out the purposeful nature of the outbreak. “Experts proved that the epidemic is here and it will take more than a week to deal with it. Unfortunately, we missed the start of the epidemic, as we did the financial crisis,” Popov noted.

Popov then listed benefits from the state of emergency, saying it will allow to control the distribution of drugs with the help of interior troops, enforce the ban on mass rallies, ensure implementation of decisions by the NSDC and minimize declarations by politicians regarding the flue handling. Also, the vertical chain of staffs set up as a result of declaring the state of emergency will curb red-tape and competition of ministries.

withheld ukraine sequences raise pandemic concerns

Recombinomics | Right now we know that many clinical specimens and viruses have been sent to one of the WHO collaborating centres for further study. We don't know the results of those studies, and it will probably take a couple of days for the full analysis of those viruses to be available. But in the meantime, what we do not have is any evidence of viruses there or anywhere else as showing any big mutations. I raise this point because I have seen in some media reports that there are reports that WHO or other groups are saying that there are mutations and I want to point out that these are rumours and factually, untrue.

The above comments from Keiji Kukuda offer some general comments on the Ukrainian H1N1 sequences at Mill Hill in London. He specifically says WHO doesn't see any "big" mutations in the samples being sequenced, which would refer to reassortment or Tamiflu resistance. However, the changes seen in Ukraine do not require "big" mutations. Small mutations, such as SNP can have profound effects for a virus like pandemic H1N1.

That virus normally circulates in swine, and has recently jumped to humans. It already has many characteristics with the 1918 pandemic strain. Both are swine H1N1 that jumped to humans. Such species jumpers can increase efficiencies with small changes. One good example is position 627 in the PB2 gene. That position comes in two forms. When there is glutamic acid (E) at that position, the PB2 enzyme copies the viral genetic material most efficiently at 41 C, the body temperature of a bird. However, if that position has a lysine (K), the enzyme is most active at 33 C, the temperature of a human nose in the winter. The swine H1N1 has an E, which may be why it goes well in lung, which is 37 C and closer to the optimal replication temperature of 41C. However, a single change that produced the most efficient replication at 37C would lead to even higher levels in the lungs, which could lead to frequent cytokine storms, like those in 1918, instead of the less frequent level seen in Ukraine.

However, the rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine (see map), coupled with the high frequency of hemorrhagic pneumonia raise concerns that a small change is leading to a more virulent virus. Similarly, the rapid spread of the virus could also be affected by a small change in another gene, such as HA, which controls entry of the virus to cells and influences tissue tropism.

Mill Hill has acknowledged that they have at least 15 H1N1 positive samples from Ukraine, which would identify a Ukranian specific change. The delay in the announcement of sequence results raises concerns that such changes have been detected, and such changes are undergoing further analysis.

The number of cases in Ukraine continues to expand. The number of patients with H1N1 symptoms is now approaching 1 million. Cases have been increasing at almost 200,000 per day, so it is likely that tomorrow's report will have over 1 million cases. This rapid spread increases concern that the 15 sequences at Mill Hill contain one or more of these small changes, which has led to a delay in the announcement of sequence results.

More detail on the sequences at Mill Hill is overdue. The rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine demands rapid sequence results. Continued delay will only increase concerns.

national h1n1 epidemic declared in bulgaria

Recombinomics | The Health Ministry made the decision based on the grounds that the number of people with swine flu has reached 210 per 10 000.

Thus, all schools in Bulgaria will be in a swine flu break all of next week (9-14 November). The Health Ministry recommends limiting the number and scope of public events.

The above comments describe the declaration of a national swine flu epidemic in Bulgaria. Earlier this week an epidemic level of H1N1 had been reported in a select number of Oblasts and municipalities (see map). However, this level was subsequently reported for the entire country, so an epidemic was declared.

Although the number of fatalities reported this far are markedly below the levels reported for Ukraine, the rapid spread of H1N1 in Bulgaria raises concerns that there will be a dramatic increases in cases and deaths in the area. Spikes in deaths have already been reported in Turkey and Italy, although none have approached the numbers reported in Ukraine, where influenza/ARI cases are approaching 1 million, and will likely surpass that number in the next report.

The explosion of cases in Ukraine raise concerns that the H1N1 virus has subtly changed, with associated increase in cases and deaths.

Sequence data on these recent fatalities in Bulgaria and neighboring countries would be useful.