Biden And Team Go To Mexico

This will be hard for Joe. He's going to Mexico -- along with clown advisors Blinken and Sullivan, Kamala was not invited in spite of her skin color and border expertise.

AMLO is similar to Putin: stoic, polite, nerves of steel, long memory, well informed, able to control agendas and conversations. He and his able staff have been preparing for this meeting with Biden and Trudeau/Freeland. They will be polite and likely maintain a focus on border issues along with trade but the reception already looks set up to be chilly. AMLO just informed Biden that he will need to land at an airport way outside the city which means he'll need to endure a 60 minute ride through traffic to get to the meeting. Same for Trudeau.

Mexican media reporting that President Joe Biden and Air Force One will NOT land next week at Mexico's new Felipe Ángeles Airport, rejecting AMLO's public request to do so.

The reason is security concerns about the drive to the city, according to Mileniohttps://t.co/GbO79Tq4Qv

— Eric Martin (@EMPosts) January 4, 2023

"The new airport is about 30 miles north of Mexico City’s National Palace, where the summit of North American leaders will take place, and traffic can mean the drive can take more than an hour. The more convenient Mexico City International Airport, which has serviced the capital since 1931, is about five miles from the Mexican version of the White House.

Biden will visit Mexico for his first international trip in the Western Hemisphere since taking office last year amid a record-breaking wave of illegal immigration across the border between the two countries. AMLO last year blamed Biden for inspiring the border rush, saying, “Expectations were created that with the government of President Biden there would be a better treatment of migrants. And this has caused Central American migrants, and also from our country, wanting to cross the border thinking that it is easier to do so.”

NYPost |  This takes air traffic control to a whole new level.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is asking President Biden to land Air Force One at a new airport farther from the center of Mexico City when he visits next month — describing it as a favor to quell domestic criticism of the project.

The unusual request sets up a potentially awkward start to the visit and would require Biden’s motorcade to add time to its commute when the president arrives Jan. 9 for talks with López Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“I am taking the opportunity to tell [Biden] that out of friendship, out of diplomacy, we ask him that his plane land at the Felipe Ángeles International Airport,” the 69-year-old Mexican president, known by his initials, AMLO, said Wednesday at a press conference.

AMLO said Trudeau had already agreed to land at the more distant airport, which opened in March, and said he was presenting his request for Biden to the US Embassy, according to Mexico City’s Excélsior newspaper.

Biden previously visited Mexico as vice president in February 2016, when he brought his son Hunter with him aboard Air Force Two after hosting his Mexican business associates at the official vice presidential residence in Washington.

Hunter Biden is under federal investigation for potential crimes including tax fraud and unregistered foreign lobbying linked to an array of influence-peddling operations while his father was vice president and held sway in countries such as Mexico, China and Ukraine. House Republicans, who retake power next week, are vowing to determine Joe Biden’s role in his family’s overseas consulting work.

Joe Biden in 2015 posed for a group photo with his son and Mexican billionaires Carlos Slim and Miguel Alemán Velasco in DC. In 2016, Hunter Biden emailed Alemán’s son, apparently from Air Force Two en route to Mexico, complaining that he hadn’t received reciprocal business favors after “I have brought every single person you have ever asked me to bring to the F’ing White House and the Vice President’s house and the inauguration.”

 

Cartel de Sinaloa Gives AMLO 72 Hours To Free Ovidio - Or Else!!!

intelslava |  There has been some speculation that Mexican authorities did this at the behest of the United States in the lead-up to the meeting of North American leaders next week in Mexico City. There is, however, reason to be skeptical of such; such a violent response by CDS was to be expected after the Battle of Culiacán in 2019. If Sinaloa's demands aren't met and they do follow through with their threats, the deterioration in the security situation could place the meeting in jeopardy.

Such would be a blow to U.S. interests, given Washington's foreign policy of late has increasingly placed an emphasis on the role of Mexico within American strategy. Likewise, Chinese reach in Latin America is growing, so the more the U.S. has to focus resources on Mexico, the more it is constrained in operating elsewhere in the region to combat this trend.

Finally, there are more immediate political considerations at play. Mexico in 2021 was the 2nd largest trading partner of the United States, with total value of this commerce estimated at $661 Billion. This is important, as Mexican national authorities have previously identified CDS (and CJNG) as a serious threat to cross border trading relations, given their influence in the Mexican borderlands. Disruptions to this trade would affect not just important states like Texas and California, but the national economy at large.

Globalization Is Dead And No One Is Listening

Video of TSMC founder Morris Chang's remarks at the TSMC Tool-In in Arizona cannot be found anywhere online. Videos of oxygen-thieving Joe Biden and turd-burgling Tim Wise are ubiquitous, however. Who gives a flying f*ck what either of these pantloading dipshits had to say?!?!?!?

Consequently, old video of Dr. Chang at Brookings is all I've got.

interconnected  |  The most powerful, and somewhat uncomfortable, part of Chang’s speech is his declaration that:

“Globalization is almost dead. Free trade is almost dead. And a lot of people still wish they would come back, but I really don’t think they will be back for a while.”

TSMC is arguably the one company that most epitomizes all the forces of globalization – free trade, hyper specialization, cross-border supply chain, and the assumption of geopolitical stability that lets all these forces interact and interconnect. In this world, TSMC, and manufacturers like it, would build factories wherever it deems to make the most economic sense, without needing to worry about adverse political consequences.

Chang no doubt reflected on the core nature of globalization and free trade, of which he and TSMC are beneficiaries. Witnessing TSMC’s newest fab being built in Arizona, a location TSMC would have never chosen if globalization were alive and well (a point he has made many times in the past), it is only appropriate for Chang to somberly proclaim the death of globalization (though he still hedged a bit with “almost”).

The unfortunate second-order effect of the death of globalization that no one likes to talk about is the rising cost of all kinds of goods and products – a future that may make persistent inflation even worse. Tim Cook announced to much fanfare at the same event that Apple will use chips made from TSMC Arizona. What he did not say is whether that will make the pricey iPhones and MacBooks even pricier to buy.

In Morris Chang’s own estimation, the chips produced from TSMC Arizona may cost “at least 50% more” than the chips from TSMC Taiwan. Will TSMC pass on that cost to Apple or let it eat into its margins? Will Apple pass on that cost to consumers or let it eat into its margins? No one knows right now, but as TSMC Arizona starts churning out wafers, we will know soon enough.

To be clear, this is not a critique of TSMC’s decision to build fabs in America. Given the reality of the world, it is probably the right thing to do. Morris Chang, who may be reluctant but is ultimately a pragmatist, gave his blessing by being at the ceremony. But he did not let the bigger lesson go unspoken.

“Offshoring” is out of fashion, and “onshoring” and “friendshoring” is the new black. Any wishful thinking that globalization will continue in its previous form is naive.

Made in America (in Taiwan)

The other uncomfortable yet thought-provoking part of Chang’s speech is this:

“...We hired almost 600 engineers here a year and a half ago, we sent them to Taiwan, and they were under training in Taiwan for one year to a year and a half. In the meantime, about the same number of Taiwan engineers underwent training in Taiwan also.

So before we see a single wafer, we have about more than a thousand people being trained. This, I think, is a very good sign that we are prepared.”

If you read between the lines, what Chang is really saying is TSMC cannot find enough qualified American talent to do the jobs TSMC needs to operate. So it must spend extra money (more cost) to send every new hire in America to Taiwan to get trained. Furthermore, due to this talent shortage, additional engineers from Taiwan must be hired, trained, and deployed to America to make TSMC Arizona function (with doubled salaries and extra benefits to boot). These trainings are not some two-to-four week corporate offsites, but up to one and a half years long!

Yet, despite all this extra cost and personnel hassle, Chang believes this is a “very good sign” and the right thing to do. That’s because these are the “people problems” and “cultural problems” that he learned the hard way 25 years ago when trying to open TSMC’s first American fab, located in Camas, Washington – an experience he called “a dream fulfilled became a nightmare fulfilled”. TSMC Arizona is now investing up front to avoid the same mistakes.

Beyond the talent shortage problem, there is also an equipment shortage and supplier shortage problem, so much so that TSMC has been shipping as many tools and equipment as possible, directly from Taiwan to Arizona. TSMC has voiced these and other concerns in a letter last month, sent to the NIST bureau of the Commerce Department (an agency I happened to have served in during the Obama administration). Of course, you wouldn’t hear about any of this if you only listen to Gina Raimondo.

The wafers that TSMC Arizona will produce – and be proudly labeled “Made in America” – are looking very “Taiwanese”.

Has Russia Already Mastered High-End Lithography?

smoothiex12  |  I am constantly on record that Russian Ministry of Defense is well supplied (due to cannibalizing of washing machines, I guess) with all kinds of microchips, including ASIC and what have you. All this, due to boutique production which is fully localized. Otherwise, one may ask, how did Russians manage to manufacture now their satellites with 100% Russian element base and how come that Russians openly state that their NTSUO main supercomputer is more powerful than anything Pentagon's NMCC has. 

The answer is simple. Read this (in Russian). 

Российский литограф 7 нм от ИПФ РАН! Литограф от НЦФМ за 2-3 года! Понеслось!

Translation: Russian lithograph for 7 nm from Institute of  Applied Physics of Russian Academy of Sciences. Lithograph from National Center of Physics and Mathematics in 2-3 years. Off we go! 

As it turned out, Russia had working prototype for 30 nm in... 2011.

After that, all data following 2011 was... removed. Now a puzzle. Look what newly created National Center of Physics and Mathematics is (in Russian)? Or, rather, who runs the whole show? Yep, it is in Sarov and it is, of course, Rosatom. Now, lets go back to 2011 and ask ourselves a question--WHY Sergei Kirienko who headed Rosatom from 2005 through 2016, and now is the second person, after Vaino, in Putin's Staff, was awarded in 2018 the highest honor of the Hero of Russian Federation, together with Yuri Borisov, with a vague description "for achievements in developing nuclear industry." And, naturally, weapons (in Russian). 

So, let's summarize. In 2011 Russia already has a working prototype lithograph for 30 nm structures. Then, in 2014 Russia unveils NTsUO and claims that supercomputer in it is way more powerful than Pentagon's, then Rosatom effectively builds Russia's composite materials industry, then we have some new reactors coming on-line, and then, of course, we have hypersonic revolution in 2018. Just this short list tells you that this whole thing, requiring an immense computing power, hasn't been done on Pentium 4 processors alone. But where did Russia get those hi-end processors and, in the end, stated recently that fully Russian-made lithography is coming very soon. Well, we are now getting some whiff of the proceedings, which a few years ago I named a "revelation mode". 

As I am on record constantly, one has to be able to read news properly and not miss all those important details. But above all, we need to understand how truly high level strategic planning is done and why Russia was able to withstand all Western sanctions and sabotage and, in fact, benefited from that strategically. One has to assume with a very high probability that modelling of technological, industrial, military and, in the end, geopolitical trends has been done on something which we didn't see yet. What is known now that it is some extremely capable computation on something which is fully domestically made. But the signs and clues have been around for a long time now. How do you think you design something like 3M22 Zircon or Peresvet with Avangard. I guess, we've got part of the answer. But I am on record, the nation which produces all that will produce modern chip industry sooner or later. Looks like it is going to be sooner, and don't tell me I didn't warn you;)   

Has China Leapfrogged ASML EUV Lithography?

reuters  |  The chief executive of ASML Holding NV, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker, on Tuesday questioned whether a U.S. push to get the Netherlands to adopt new rules restricting exports to China make sense.

"Maybe they think we should come across the table, but ASML has already sacrificed," CEO Peter Wennink said in an interview with newspaper NRC Handelsblad.

He said that following U.S. pressure, the Dutch government has already restricted ASML from exporting its most advanced lithography machines to China since 2019, something he said has benefited U.S. companies selling alternative technology.

He said that while 15% of ASML's sales are in China, at U.S. chip equipment suppliers "it is 25 or sometimes more than 30%".

A spokesperson for ASML confirmed the remarks in the interview were accurate but declined further comment.

The Biden administration issued new export rules for U.S. companies in October aimed at cutting off China's ability to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips in a bid to slow its military and technological advances.

Washington is urging the Netherlands, Japan and other unspecified countries with companies that make cutting edge manufacturing equipment to adopt similar rules. The Dutch trade minister has confirmed talks are ongoing.

Wennink said it seemed contradictory that U.S. chip manufacturers are able to sell their most advanced chips to Chinese customers, while ASML is only able to sell older chipmaking equipment.

 

 

 

Why Was Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani Assassinated?

thecradle  |  Soleimani was the “keyholder” in the Axis of Resistance, according to an Arab politician with strong ties to decision-making circles in both Washington and Riyadh.

“Hajj Qassem,” says the politician, was uniquely capable of making decisions and then implementing them, which is considered a “rare advantage” among leaders. He was able to achieve significant strategic results – rapidly – by moving freely and negotiating directly with various statesmen, militias, and political movements.

Examples of this are rife: The Quds Force commander persuaded Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2015 to intervene militarily in Syria, and organized the complex ‘frenemy’ relationship between Turkiye and Tehran through Turkish intelligence director Hakan Fidan.

Soleimani played a pivotal role in preventing the fall of Damascus, maintained and developed important links with Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah in Beirut, led a region wide campaign to defeat ISIS, and successfully managed the delicate balances between various political components in Iraq. In Yemen, he was able to supply the Ansarallah movement with training and arms that arguably changed the course of the Saudi-led aggression.

Together or separately, the aforementioned points made him a desired target of assassination for both the US government and the security establishment in Israel.

A visit to Venezuela

There may, however, be additional factors that contributed to the US decision to assassinate Soleimani on 3 January, 2022. While some analysts cite, for instance, the storming of the 2019 US embassy in Baghdad by demonstrators three days before the extrajudicial killing, US decision makers were unlikely to have mobilized its assassins in reaction to this relatively benign incident.

More significant for them would have been Soleimani’s unannounced trip to Venezuela in 2019, which crossed Washington’s red lines within its own geographic sphere of influence.

His visit to the South American country was publicly revealed more than two years later by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, during an interview with Al-Mayadeen in December 2021.

Maduro stated that Soleimani visited Caracas between March and April 2019, during which time the US launched a cyber and sabotage attack on Venezuela, resulting in widespread power outages. He glorified the Iranian general as a military hero who “combated terrorism and the brutal terrorist criminals who attacked the peoples of the Axis of resistance. He was a brave man.”

Although Maduro did not reveal the exact date of the visit, it can be assumed that it took place on 8 April, 2019, and that Soleimani came on board the first direct flight of the Iranian airline Mahan Air between Tehran and Caracas.

At that time, the US attack on Caracas was at its peak: Washington’s recognition of Juan Guaidó as president of Venezuela, comprehensive economic sanctions, and then, at the end of April, the organization of a coup attempt that succeeded only in securing the escape of US-backed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez to the Spanish embassy.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva Halts Privatization Of State Owned Companies

azerbaycan24  |  The national oil giant Petrobras will remain under government control © AFP / Carl De Souza

Brazil’s newly returned President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has scrapped plans to sell off eight state-run corporate giants, including the oil company Petroleo Brasileiro, known as Petrobras, Brazilian news website G1 reported on Monday.

Lula, who was at the helm from 2003 through 2010, was sworn in as Brazil’s president on January 1. Imprisoned for graft in 2018, Lula’s convictions were overturned in 2019, allowing him to defeat Jair Bolsonaro in October’s election.

The decision to remove state corporations from the list of state asset sales was one of the first official acts by the left-wing politician.

Aside from Petrobras, the order includes Pre-Sal Petroleo, the state firm responsible for the supervision and sale of the government’s share of oil and gas from production-sharing contracts, along with the postal service Correios, and the Empresa Brasil de Comunicacaooperator, which manages the federal government’s broadcast network.

The Brazilian social welfare system’s IT services enterprise Dataprev, state-owned nuclear company Nuclep, IT services corporation Serpro, and the Agriculture Ministry’s National Supply Company are also off the privatization list.

 The national oil giant Petrobras will remain under government control © AFP / Carl De Souza

Brazil’s newly returned President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has scrapped plans to sell off eight state-run corporate giants, including the oil company Petroleo Brasileiro, known as Petrobras, Brazilian news website G1 reported on Monday.

Lula, who was at the helm from 2003 through 2010, was sworn in as Brazil’s president on January 1. Imprisoned for graft in 2018, Lula’s convictions were overturned in 2019, allowing him to defeat Jair Bolsonaro in October’s election.

The decision to remove state corporations from the list of state asset sales was one of the first official acts by the left-wing politician.

Aside from Petrobras, the order includes Pre-Sal Petroleo, the state firm responsible for the supervision and sale of the government’s share of oil and gas from production-sharing contracts, along with the postal service Correios, and the Empresa Brasil de Comunicacaooperator, which manages the federal government’s broadcast network.

The Brazilian social welfare system’s IT services enterprise Dataprev, state-owned nuclear company Nuclep, IT services corporation Serpro, and the Agriculture Ministry’s National Supply Company are also off the privatization list.

The returning president has called for “ensuring a rigorous analysis of the impacts of privatization on the public service or on the market,” adding that state banks and major oil companies such as Petrobras would play a “key role” in the new economic cycle.

On Monday, the Sao Paulo stock index shed 3.24%, while Petrobras shares dropped around 6% as Lula’s inauguration speech sparked investor fears of interventionist government policies. The national currency – the real – saw its value slide by 1.5%.

Lula’s predecessor, the populist far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, led an administration mired in controversies ranging from corruption to environmental devastation. Lula’s own government was brought down by massive corruption in Petrobras, which led to the impeachment of his hand-picked successor in 2016.

 

Mexicans Tend To Be Very Polite And Wouldn't Likely Say How They Really Feel

mexiconewsdaily  |  Overall, the magazine highlighted that, in a year characterized by economic struggles worldwide, some previously weak performers – such as Mediterranean countries – had proven surprisingly resilient in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and global supply shocks.

President López Obrador highlighted the result at his Wednesday morning press conference, boasting that Mexico had come out ahead of Canada, Japan, France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Britain and even the United States.

“We’re doing well,” he said. “2023 will be better, much better, because we already have the momentum, and in politics momentum counts for a lot… Mexico is on the list of countries with the most advantages to invest.”

Both AMLO and his supporters on social media took the opportunity to hit back at The Economist for past statements critical of the president, including a May 2021 cover story that described AMLO as a “false messiah” who “pursues ruinous policies by improper means.”

“[And now] we are in sixth place in the world in economic performance,” the president said, emphasizing that The Economist “is not sympathetic to us.”

Fact-checkers were quick to point out that The Economist’s list does not include all the countries in the world, but only 34 of the 38 countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Furthermore, Mexico’s continued strong performance is far from guaranteed. The most recent figures from the national statistics agency (INEGI) show that Mexico’s economic growth stagnated towards the end of 2022, with the Bank of Mexico now forecasting 2.9% growth across the whole year. Growth predictions for 2023 have been revised downwards several times, with one recent analysis forecasting 1.1%.

Under AMLO's People Centric Leadership - Mexico Has Become An Economic Success Story

nakedcapitalism |  But you are unlikely to hear much about Mexico’s unconventional economic success story in the mainstream media, whether in Mexico, the US, Europe or other parts of Latin America. After all, it might encourage others to follow suit.

Over the past four years, the mainstream media has consistently derided or attacked the AMLO government’s reform agenda, including its promotion of energy security, its rewriting of the rules for outsourcing and its nationalization of lithium. Even today, most MSM coverage attributes the lion’s share of Mexico’s economic success in 2022 to “external factors”, such as increased consumer demand and investment from the US.

Every time AMLO has tried to pursue policies that generally favor Mexico’s broader economy, dire warnings erupt that investors, both domestic and foreign, will stampede for the exits. A case in point: one of AMLO’s first acts in government was to cancel a $13-billion airport for the capital that was almost one-third finished, around $5 billion over budget, mired in allegations of corruption and posed serious environmental downsides. In effect, he took his presidential predecessor Enrique Peña Nieto’s legacy infrastructure project and ripped it up, for a slew of good reasons. And in doing so, he sent a clear signal to Mexico’s business elite that the time for “business as usual” was over.

But he also made sure that the investors holding the bonds that had financed the unfinished project were paid in due course. And contrary to what many economists, bankers and media pundits had warned, investors did not rush for the exits.

Nor was there a mad stampede when the AMLO government began strong-arming domestic and global corporations into finally settling their decades-long tax debts with the Mexican state. Until AMLO’s arrival, no government had even bothered to try. Coca-Cola bottler Femsa, and brewer Grupo Modelo, a division of the world’s largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev, paid hundreds of millions of dollars in current taxes and back taxes. So too did Walmart and a host of other companies.

As a result, the government was able to raise more tax funds in 2020 than in 2019, without raising taxes on the middle classes. Again, no rush to the exits, though some companies, such as Canadian mining giant First Majestic Silver Corp, are still refusing to pay up.

In fact, Mexico is fast becoming a magnet for foreign investment, as corporations, particularly from the US, shift their focus from China to a production base that is similarly cheap but closer to home. In the first three quarters of 2022 Mexico received record levels of foreign direct investment, much of it from the US. According to research by the McKinsey Global Institute, American investors poured more money into Mexico than into China last year. As the NYT kindly pointed out, for American companies moving business to Mexico location is the main driver:

Shipping a container full of goods to the United States from China generally requires a month — a time frame that doubled and tripled during the worst disruptions of the pandemic. Yet factories in Mexico and retailers in the United States can be bridged within two weeks.

A coterie of Mexican business lobbies have even suggested that Mexico could become a vast investment hub for the whole of the American continent. If this happens, the biggest beneficiaries, of course, will be transnational corporations, mainly from the US. For Mexico, it will mean even closer integration with the US economy, which already accounts for over 85% of Mexican exports.

Just how much economic policy independence future Mexican governments will have under such an arrangement remains to be seen, though the answer is likely to be “not much”. The US and Canada are already locked in a trade dispute with Mexico over AMLO’s energy reforms. It also means that wherever the US economy goes — and signs are that it is heading toward a recession — Mexico will quickly follow. And what was this year a blessing could quickly become a curse.

Mexican Workers Assemble North American Automobiles In Mexico For $3.00/HR

NYTimes | “Everybody who sources from China understands that there’s no way to get around that Pacific Ocean — there’s no technology for that,” said Raine Mahdi, founder of Zipfox, a San Diego-based company that links factories in Mexico with American companies seeking alternatives to Asia. “There’s always this push from customers: ‘Can you get it here faster?’”

During the first 10 months of last year, Mexico exported $382 billion of goods to the United States, an increase of more than 20 percent over the same period in 2021, according to U.S. census data. Since 2019, American imports of Mexican goods have swelled by more than one-fourth.

In 2021, American investors put more money into Mexico — buying companies and financing projects — than into China, according to an analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute.

China will almost certainly remain a central component of manufacturing for years to come, say trade experts. But the shift toward Mexico represents a marginal reapportionment of the world’s manufacturing capacity amid recognition of volatile hazards — from geopolitical realignments to the intensifying challenges of climate change.

“It’s not about deglobalization,” said Michael Burns, managing partner at Murray Hill Group, an investment firm focused on the supply chain. “It’s the next stage of globalization that is focused on regional networks.”

That Mexico looms as a potential means of cushioning Americans from the pitfalls of globalization amounts to a development rich in historical irony.

Three decades ago, Ross Perot, the business magnate then running for president, warned of “a giant sucking sound going south” in depicting Mexico as a job-capturing threat to American livelihoods.

“The reality is that Mexico is the solution to some of our challenges,” said Shannon K. O’Neil, a Latin America specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “Trade that is closer by from Canada or Mexico is much more likely to create and protect U.S. jobs.”

Given that the United States, Mexico and Canada operate within an expansive trade zone, their supply chains are often intertwined. Each contributes parts and raw materials used in finished goods by the others. Cars assembled in Mexico, for example, draw heavily on parts produced at factories in the United States.

Overall, some 40 percent of the value of Mexico’s exports to the United States consists of parts and components made at American plants, according to a seminal research paper. Yet only 4 percent of imports from China are American-made.

 

NAFTA Devastated Mexico's Rural Sector And Increased Mexican Poverty

citizen |  The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was sold to the people of all three countries with grand promises. Mexicans were promised NAFTA would raise their wages and bring Mexicans’ standards of living closer to the United States and Canada. Instead, after 25 years, real wages in Mexico are down from already low pre-NAFTA wages, two million Mexicans engaged in farming lost their livelihoods and lands, tens of thousands of small businesses have gone bankrupt as American big-box retailers moved in, and poverty remains widespread. And, Mexican taxpayers have paid foreign investors more than $204 million in compensation following Investor-State Dispute Settlement attacks.

Prior to NAFTA, 21.4 percent of Mexico’s population earned less than the minimum income needed for food, a share that has barely budged in the 25 years since NAFTA’s implementation. Today, over half of the Mexican population and over 60 percent of the rural population still fall below the poverty line, contrary to the promises made by NAFTA’s proponents. On the 10-year anniversary of NAFTA, the Washington Post reported: “19 million more Mexicans are living in poverty than 20 years ago, according to the Mexican government and international organizations.”

Before NAFTA, Mexico only imported corn and other basic food commodities if local production did not meet domestic needs. NAFTA eliminated Mexican tariffs on corn and other commodities. NAFTA terms also required revocation of programs supporting small farmers. But NAFTA did not discipline U.S. subsidies on agriculture. The result was disastrous for millions of people in the Mexican countryside whose livelihoods relied on agriculture. Amid a NAFTA-spurred influx of cheap U.S. corn, the price paid to Mexican farmers for the corn that they grew fell by 66 percent, forcing many to abandon farming. From 1991 to 2007, about 2 million Mexicans engaged in farming and related work lost their livelihoods. Mexico’s participation in NAFTA was conditioned on changing its revolutionary-era Constitution’s land reforms, undoing provisions that guaranteed small plots (“ejidos”) to millions of Mexicans living in rural villages. As corn prices plummeted, indebted farmers lost their land, which newly could be acquired by foreign firms that consolidated prime acres into large plantations.

According to a New Republic exposé: “as cheap American foodstuffs flooded Mexico’s markets and as U.S. agribusiness moved in, 1.1 million small farmers – and 1.4 million other Mexicans dependent upon the farm sector – were driven out of work between 1993 and 2005. Wages dropped so precipitously that today the income of a farm laborer is one-third that of what it was before NAFTA.” The exposé noted that, as jobs and wages fell, many rural Mexicans joined the ranks of the 12 million undocumented immigrants competing for low-wage jobs in the United States.

Opposition To Globalization Has Long Been Classified As Domestic Violent Extremism

As I've previously reported, the Department of Homeland Security's new definition of "domestic extremist" includes not only anti-government groups on the right but also anti-establishment left-wing groups such as animal rights and environmental activists:https://t.co/7INcvJjjk8 pic.twitter.com/JOaHpeoPEh

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 22, 2021

piie  |  This paper is about the critics of the “doers” of globalization. It describes who they are, where they came from, what they want, how economists, policymakers, and others might understand them better, and where globalization might head from here. Many critics are themselves strongly internationalist and want to see globalization proceed, but under different rules. Some, particularly the protesters in the streets, focus mainly on what is wrong with the world. But some of them put forward broad alternative visions and others offer detailed recommendations for alleviating the problems they see arising from status quo globalization. Most of them have roots in long-standing transnational advocacy efforts to protect human rights and the environment and reduce poverty around the world. What brings them together today is their shared concern that the process by which globalization’s rules are being written and implemented is undermining democracy and failing to spread the benefits broadly. This paper sketches the key issues and concerns that motivate the critics in a way that is broadly representative and intelligible to economists. It finds more resonance for the critics’ agenda in economics than they commonly recognize. And it attempts to capture the concerns of Southern as well as Northern critics and to analyze the issues that divide as well as bring them together. Finally, it evaluates those issues and alternative proposals on which even globalization enthusiasts and the critics might come together cooperatively.

greenwald |  “Domestic Violent Extremism Poses Heightened Threat in 2021,” the March 1 Report from the Director of National Intelligence states that it was prepared “in consultation with the Attorney General and Secretary of Homeland Security—and was drafted by the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and Department of Homeland Security (DHS), with contributions from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).” 

Its primary point is this: “The IC [intelligence community] assesses that domestic violent extremists (DVEs) who are motivated by a range of ideologies and galvanized by recent political and societal events in the United States pose an elevated threat to the Homeland in 2021.” While asserting that “the most lethal” of these threats is posed by “racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists (RMVEs) and militia violent extremists (MVEs),” it makes clear that its target encompasses a wide range of groups from the left (Antifa, animal rights and environmental activists, pro-choice extremists and anarchists: “those who oppose capitalism and all forms of globalization”) to the right (sovereign citizen movements, anti-abortion activists and those deemed motivated by racial or ethnic hatreds).

The U.S. security state apparatus regards the agenda of “domestic violent extremists” as “derived from anti-government or anti-authority sentiment,” which includes “opposition to perceived economic, racial or social hierarchies.” In sum, to the Department of Homeland Security, an “extremist” is anyone who opposes the current prevailing ruling class and system for distributing power. Anyone they believe is prepared to use violence, intimidation or coercion in pursuit of these causes then becomes a “domestic violent extremist,” subject to a vast array of surveillance, monitoring and other forms of legal restrictions:

 

La Cucaracha Said Some Words Too....,

 president.ua |  Dear Ukrainians!

This year began on February 24. Without prefaces and preludes. Sharply. Early. At 4 o'clock.

It was dark. It was loud. It was hard for many and scary for some. 311 days have passed. It can still be dark, loud, and complicated for us. But we will definitely never be afraid again. And we'll never be ashamed.

It was our year. Year of Ukraine. Year of Ukrainians.

We woke up on February 24. Into another life. Being another people. Another Ukrainians. The first missiles finally destroyed the labyrinth of illusions. We saw who was who. What friends and enemy are capable of, and most importantly, what we are capable of.

On February 24, millions of us made a choice. Not a white flag, but a blue and yellow flag. Not escaping, but meeting. Meeting the enemy. Resisting and fighting.

The explosions on February 24 stunned us. Since then we have not heard everything. And we don't listen to everyone. We were told: you have no other option but to surrender. We say: we have no other option than to win.

On February 24, we began to create our victory. From many bricks – hundreds of other victories.

We have overcome the panic. We did not run away but united. We have overcome doubts, despair, and fear. We believed in ourselves and in our strength. The Armed Forces of Ukraine. Intelligence. National Guard. SBU. Special Operations Forces. Border guards. Territorial defense forces. Air defense forces. The police. The State Emergency Service. All our defense and security forces. I am proud of you all, our warriors!

This year can be called a year of losses for Ukraine, for the whole of Europe, and the whole world. But it's wrong. We shouldn't say that.

We haven't lost anything. It was taken from us. Ukraine did not lose its sons and daughters – they were taken away by murderers. Ukrainians did not lose their homes – they were destroyed by terrorists. We did not lose our lands – they were occupied by invaders. The world did not lose peace – Russia destroyed it.

This year has struck our hearts. We've cried out all the tears. All the prayers have been yelled. 311 days. We have something to say about every minute. But most of the words are superfluous. They are not needed. No explanations or decorations are needed. Silence is needed to hear. Pauses are needed to realize.

If Ukrainian Conscripts Had Any Ammo, They'd Frag The Shit Out Of Their Nazi "Leaders"

More #Ukranian soldiers telling their president that they are coming for him and all the other politicians if they can only survive this. pic.twitter.com/S30gKpdtAR

— Arthur Morgan (@ArthurM40330824) December 31, 2022

Pravda  |  Background: On 13 December, the Verkhovna Rada approved and directed the President to sign draft law No. 8271, which significantly strengthens the criminal liability of the military. A petition asking Volodymyr Zelenskyy to promise this law gained more than 25,000 votes in a day.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that he supports the law No. 8271, which increases the criminal liability of military personnel for disobeying combat orders, deserting the battlefield or a military unit.

Source: Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s video statement on Facebook

Quote: "Today I have to raise a rather difficult topic: increased responsibility [of military personnel — ed.] for voluntarily leaving a military unit or place of service, desertion, voluntary leaving the battlefield or refusal to act with weapons, disobedience, and failure to comply with combat orders. 

I support the relevant amendments to the legislation adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [Ukrainian Parliament — ed.] and ask the President to sign the law. My opinion clearly reflects the position of commanders of groups and military units, who demanded a systematic solution to this set of issues."

Details: The army exists on discipline, Zalyzhnyi empasised. 

And if gaps in the legislation do not ensure its compliance, and "refuseniks" can pay a fine of up to 10% of combat pay, or receive a probationary sentence, this is unfair, the Commander-in-Chief believes.

Quote: "Furthermore, this is key: exposed areas of the front are forced to be covered by other servicemen, which leads to increased losses of personnel, territories, and civilians on them. Often, lost positions have to be restored by assault actions at a very high cost. This should not be the case."

After Putin Spoke, La Cucaracha Tells Russians Some Jokes...,

BBC  |  Speaking after Vladimir Putin delivered a New Year address flanked by people in military uniform, Mr Zelensky said the Russian president was hiding behind his troops, not leading them.

Saturday saw a day of deadly strikes across Ukraine, and Mr Zelensky said Ukrainians would not forgive Russia.

At least one person died and dozens were injured in the attacks.

The head of Ukraine's armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhny, said air defences had shot down 12 of 20 Russian cruise missiles on Saturday.

There were further missile strikes on Kyiv just hours into the New Year on Sunday, officials said. The Ukrainian Air force said it had shot down 45 Iranian-made kamikaze drones overnight.

But the strikes, which came in the opening hours of 2023, fuelled anger and hate among Ukrainians already tired of Russia's unrelenting air campaign.

As explosions rocked the capital, some residents sang the national anthem, while officials accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilians while they gathered to celebrated the New Year.

Andriy Nebitov, the head of the Kyiv police, posted an image to social media of a downed drone with the words "Happy New Year" scribbled across it in Russian.

"That is everything you need to know about the terror state and its army," he wrote on Facebook, adding that the remains had crashed in a children's playground.

• Battlefield is deadlocked, Ukraine spy chief tells BBC

• Five ways Ukraine war could go in 2023

The latest wave of attacks happened two days after one of the largest air strikes since the start of the war. Dozens of attacks in recent weeks have caused repeated power cuts.

Moscow has repeatedly denied targeting civilians, but Mr Putin has recently admitted hitting critical energy facilities.

In an address on his Telegram channel, Mr Zelensky said those who carried out Saturday's attacks were inhuman.

Switching from Ukrainian to Russian, he then attacked Mr Putin.

President Vladimir Putin's New Year Address To The Nation

kremlin.ru  |  President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Citizens of Russia, friends,

The year 2022 is drawing to a close. It was a year of difficult but necessary decisions, of important steps towards Russia's full sovereignty and a powerful consolidation of our society.

It was a year that put many things in their place, and drew a clear line between courage and heroism, on the one hand, and betrayal and cowardice on the other, showed us that there is nothing stronger than love for our near and dear, loyalty to our friends and comrades-in-arms, and devotion to our Fatherland.

It was a year of truly pivotal, even fateful events. They became the frontier where we lay the foundation for our common future, our true independence.

This is what we are fighting for today, protecting our people in our historical territories in the new regions of the Russian Federation. Together, we are building and creating.

Russia’s future is what matters the most. Defending our Motherland is the sacred duty we owe to our ancestors and descendants. The moral and historical truth is on our side.

The outgoing year has brought great and dramatic changes to our country and to the world. It was filled with uncertainty, anxiety and worry.

But our multiethnic nation showed great courage and dignity as it had in every challenging period in Russian history, supported the defenders of our Fatherland, our soldiers and officers, and all participants in the special military operation, in both word and deed.

We have always known that Russia's sovereign, independent and secure future depends only on us, on our strength and determination, and today, we have become convinced of it once again.

For years, Western elites hypocritically assured us of their peaceful intentions, including to help resolve the serious conflict in Donbass. But in fact, they encouraged the neo-Nazis in every possible way, who continued to take military and overtly terrorist action against peaceful civilians in the people's republics of Donbass.

The West lied to us about peace while preparing for aggression, and today, they no longer hesitate to openly admit it and to cynically use Ukraine and its people as a means to weaken and divide Russia. We have never allowed anyone to do this and we will not allow it now.

Russian servicemen, militiamen and volunteers are now fighting for their homeland, for truth and justice, for reliable guarantees of peace and Russia’s security. They are all our heroes and they are shouldering the heaviest burden right now.

From the bottom of my heart, I wish a very happy New Year to every participant in the special military operation, to those who are here next to me now, and who are on the frontline, those getting ready for action at training centres, those who are in hospitals or already back home, having fulfilled their duty, to all those now on combat duty in strategic units, and all personnel of the Russian Armed Forces.

Comrades,

thank you for your valiant service. Our entire vast country is proud of your fortitude, endurance and courage. Millions of people are with you in their hearts and souls, and will be raising a toast to you at their New Year's table.

Many thanks to everyone who provides ancillary support for military operations: drivers and railway workers who deliver supplies to the front, doctors, paramedics, and nurses who are fighting for soldiers’ lives and nursing wounded civilians. I thank the workers and engineers at our military and other plants who are working today with great dedication, builders who are erecting civilian facilities and defensive fortifications, and helping to restore the destroyed cities and villages in Donbass and Novorossiya.

Friends,

Russia has been living under sanctions since the events in Crimea in 2014, but this year, a full-blown sanctions war has been unleashed against us. Those who started it expected our industry, finances and transport to collapse and never recover.

This did not happen, because together we created a reliable margin of safety. We have been taking steps and measures towards strengthening our sovereignty in a vitally important field, in the economy. Our struggle for our country, for our interests and for our future undoubtedly serves as an inspiring example for other states in their quest for a just multipolar world order.

I consider it very important that in the outgoing year, such qualities as mercy, solidarity and proactive empathy have become especially important in Russia. More and more Russians feel the need to help others. They rally together and take initiative without any formal instructions.

I want to thank you for being so considerate, responsible and kind, for your active involvement in the common cause regardless of age or income. You arrange warehouses and transport to deliver parcels to our fighters in the combat zone, to the residents of affected cities and towns, and help organise holidays for children from the new constituent entities of the Federation.

My friends, you are providing great support to the families of the fighters who perished, who gave their lives defending the lives of others.

I know how difficult it is for their wives, sons and daughters, and for their parents, who raised real heroes; I understand how they feel now, on New Year's Eve. We will make every effort to help the families of our fallen comrades raise their children, give them a good education, and get a profession.

With all my heart, I share your pain and ask you to accept my sincere words of support.

Friends,

Our country has always celebrated the start of the New Year, even during very difficult times. It has always been everyone’s favourite holiday, and has a magical power to reveal the best in people, to heighten the importance of traditional family values, the energy of kindness, generosity and trust.

As we see the New Year in, everyone strives to give joy to their loved ones, to show them attention and warmth, to give them presents they have been dreaming of, to see the delight in children’s eyes and parents’ touching gratitude for our attention. The older generation knows how to appreciate such moments of happiness.

Friends, now is the best moment to leave all personal grievances and misunderstandings in the past, to tell our nearest and dearest how we feel, how much we love them, how important it is to take care of each other – always, at any time.

Let these heartfelt words and noble feelings give each of us immense strength and confidence that together, we will overcome all the challenges and keep our country great and independent.

We will only move forward, to fight for our families and for Russia, for the future of our only, beloved Motherland.

Happy New Year, friends! Happy 2023!

We're The Next Lost Civilization....,

kunstler  |    In 2011, relations between the US and Russia soured when President Putin accused the US of fomenting protests in Russia over its parliamentary elections. And from there, our State Department decided that Russia and the USA could not even pretend to be friendly.

     Jump ahead to 2014: Neocons in the Obama administration figured it was time to cut Russia back down to size. That effort crystalized around the former Soviet province, Ukraine, and blossomed into the US-sponsored-and-organized Maidan Revolution, utilizing Ukraine’s sizeable Stepan Bandara legacy Nazi forces in the vanguard, to foment violence in Kiev’s main city square. The US shoved out elected Ukraine President Yanukovych — who angered America by pledging to join Russia’s Custom’s Union instead of the EU — and installed its own puppet Yatsenyuk, who was ultimately replaced by the candy tycoon, Poroshenko, replaced by the Ukrainian TV star, comedian Volodymyr Zelensky. Ha Ha. Who’s laughing now? (Nobody.)

     From 2014-on, Ukraine, with America’s backing, did everything possible to antagonize Russia, especially showering the eastern provinces of Ukraine, called the Donbas, with artillery, rockets, and bombs to harass the Russia-leaning population there. After eight years of that, and continued American insults (the Steele Dossier, 2016 election interference), and renewed threats to drag Ukraine into NATO, Mr. Putin had enough and launched his “Special Military Operation” to discipline Ukraine. Once that started, American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated explicitly to the world that America’s general policy now was to “weaken Russia.”

     That declaration was accompanied by America’s policy to isolate Russia economically with ever more sanctions. Didn’t work. Russia just turned eastward to the enormous Asian market to sell its oil and gas and utilized an alternate electronic trade-clearance system to replace America’s SWIFT system. Sanctions also gave Russia a reason to aggressively pursue an import-replacement economic strategy — manufacturing stuff that they had been buying from the West, for instance, German machine tools critical for industry.

     Russia did sacrifice more than $50-billion in financial assets stranded in the US banking system — we just confiscated it — but, ultimately, that only harmed the US banking system’s reputation as a safe place to park money, and made foreign investors much more wary of stashing capital in American banks. Net effect: the value of the ruble increased and stabilized, and Russia found new ways to neutralize American economic bullying.

     Europe was the big loser in all that. For a while, Europe could pretend to go along with the US / NATO project, pouring arms and money into Ukraine, and at the same time depend on Russian oil and gas imports. Eight months into the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the US blew up the Nord Stream One and Two pipelines, and that was the end of Europe’s supply of affordable natgas, to heat homes and power industry. In a sane world, that sabotage would have been considered an act of war against Germany by the USA. But it only revealed the secret, humiliating state of vassalage that Europe was in. Europe had already made itself ridiculous buying into the hysteria over climate change and attempting to tailor its energy use to so-called “renewables” in history’s biggest virtue-signaling exercise. Germany, the engine of the EU’s economy, made one dumb mistake after another. It invested heavily in wind and solar installations, which fell so short of adequacy they were a joke, and it closed down its nuke-powered electric generation plants so as to appear ecologically correct.

    So now, Germany, and many other EU member states, teeter on the edge of leaving Modernity behind. They managed to scramble and fill their gas reserves sufficiently this fall to perhaps squeak through winter without freezing to death, but not without a lot of sacrifice, chopping down Europe’s forests, and wearing their coats indoors. Now, only a few days into Winter, it remains to be seen how that will work out. We’ll know more in March of the new year. France had been the exception in Europe, due to its large fleet of atomic energy plants. But many of them have now aged-out, some shut down altogether, and “green” politics stood in the way of replacing them, so France, too, will find itself increasingly subject to affordable energy shortages.

     Prediction: Europe’s industry will falter and close down by painful increments. The EU will not withstand the economic stress of de-industrialization. It will shatter and leave Europe once again a small continent of many small fractious nations with longstanding grudges. Some of these countries may break-up into smaller entities in turn, as Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and Russia did in the 1990s. Keep in mind, the macro trend world-wide will be downscaling and localization as affordable energy recedes for everyone. Since the end of World War Two, Europe was the world’s tourist theme park. Now it could go back to being a slaughterhouse. The Euro currency will have to be phased out as sovereign bankruptcies make the EU financial system untenable, and animosities and hostilities arise. Each country will have to return to its traditional money. Gold and silver will play a larger role in that.

     The USA poured over $100-billion into Ukraine in arms, goods, and cash in 2022. That largesse will not continue as America sinks into its Second Great Depression. In any case, much of that schwag was fobbed off with. The arms are spent, the launchers destroyed. A lot of weapons were trafficked around to other countries and non-state actors. Russia is going to prevail in Ukraine. The news emanating from American media about Ukraine’s military triumphs has been all propaganda. There was hardly ever any real doubt that Russia dominated the war zone strategically and tactically. Even its withdrawals from one city or another were tactically intelligent and worthwhile, sparing Russian lives. The Special Military Operation wasn’t a cakewalk because Russia wanted to avoid killing civilians and refrain from destroying infrastructure that would leave Ukraine a gutted, failed state. Over time, the USA proved itself to be negotiation-unworthy, and Ukraine’s president Zelensky refused to entertain rational terms for settling the crisis. So, now the gloves are off in Ukraine. As of December 29, Russia shut off the lights in Kiev and Lvov.

     The open questions: how much punishment does Ukraine seek to suffer before it capitulates? Will Zelensky survive? (Even if he runs off to Miami, he may not survive.) What exactly will be left of Ukraine? In 2023 Russia will decide the disposition of things on-the-ground. Failed states make terrible neighbors. One would imagine that Russia’s main goal is to set up a rump Ukraine that can function, but cease to be an annoying pawn of its antagonists. Ukraine will no longer enjoy access to the Black Sea; it will be landlocked. The best case would be for Ukraine to revert to the agricultural backwater it was for centuries before the mighty disruptions of the modern era. Perhaps Russia will take it over altogether and govern it as it had ever since the 1700s — except for Ukraine’s brief interlude post-USSR as one of the world’s most corrupt and mal-administered sovereign states.

     Bottom line: Ukraine is and always was within Russia’s sphere-of-influence, and will remain so. The USA has no business there and it will be best for all concerned when we bug out. Let’s hope that happens without America triggering a nuclear World War Three. (Yeah, “hope” is not a plan. Try prayer, then.) Mr. Putin’s challenge going into 2023 is to conclude the Ukraine hostilities without humiliating the USA to the degree that we do something really stupid.

Forcing Mexican Compliance In An Era Of Changing GeoPolitics

mexiconewsdaily  |  Energy, immigration and trade will be the key issues under discussion at the North American Leaders Summit (NALS) held in Mexico City in January, according to an agenda presented by Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard.

Mexico will host the tenth edition of the summit between the leaders of Mexico, Canada and the United States — colloquially known as the “Tres Amigos” summit — at the National Palace from Jan. 9 to 11. U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will join President López Obrador to advance shared priorities among their three countries.

“The three nations will seek to continue the process of regional integration on the principles of respect, sovereignty and cooperation in good faith for mutual benefit, that is the objective,” Ebrard said, while presenting the agenda at AMLO’s morning press conference on Tuesday.

The summit will open with a bilateral meeting between AMLO and Biden on Jan. 9. This will focus on strengthening bilateral trade relations, accelerating border infrastructure projects, and enhancing cooperation on issues such as labor mobility, security, education and climate change.

The migration crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border will likely be a key shaper of the discussions, as U.S. courts battle over the future of Title 42, the pandemic-era legislation that allows undocumented migrants to be immediately expelled to Mexico.

Ebrard explained that another key topic would be the Sonora Plan — Mexico’s proposal for the U.S. to help finance renewable energy infrastructure in the lithium hub of Sonora. Energy policy has been a recent point of tension between the three countries, with the U.S. and Canada accusing Mexico of unfairly favoring state-owned companies over foreign clean energy suppliers.

AMLO’s meeting with Biden will be followed by a trilateral summit on Jan. 10, and a bilateral discussion between AMLO and Trudeau on Jan. 11 focused on government strategy towards Indigenous and historically marginalized communities.

The trilateral meeting will seek to tackle six issue areas: diversity and equality; environment; trade competitiveness; migration; health; and common security. Mexico also intends to use the summit to propose a plan for tackling worsening poverty and inequality in the Americas, called the Alliance for the Prosperity of American Peoples.

“The central objective [of the alliance] will be to achieve a more egalitarian distribution of resources in the Americas based on the strengthening of trade relations … to maintain North America as the main economic power at the global level, which would allow establishing new ties with the rest of the continent,” Ebrard said.

The tenth NALS comes one year after the three nations relaunched the summit in November 2021, after a hiatus of five years. The ninth NALS, held in Washington D.C., focused on addressing the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and improving supply chain resilience. The latter issue is likely to be still more relevant this year, in light of the supply shocks created by the war in Ukraine.