CIA Chief Sees Unrest Rising With Population

The Director Central Intelligence spoke at KU last week. The full transcript of his speech is here, the WAPO summed it up thus;

Swelling populations and a global tide of immigration will present new security challenges for the United States by straining resources and stoking extremism and civil unrest in distant corners of the globe, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden said in a speech yesterday.

The population surge could undermine the stability of some of the world's most fragile states, especially in Africa, while in the West, governments will be forced to grapple with ever larger immigrant communities and deepening divisions over ethnicity and race, Hayden said.

The CIA director also predicted a widening gulf between Europe and North America on how to deal with security threats, including terrorism. While U.S. and European officials agree on the urgency of the terrorism threat, there is a fundamental difference -- a "transatlantic divide" -- over the solution, he said.

We live in excessively interesting times....,

The Cognitive Age

quoth Ed;

I noticed you have not discussed the artificial intelligence angle. Who needs to employ a real business analyst when you have computers making up optimized probable scenarios and determining the best path and a fall back plan?

This type of AI is emerging and this will eliminate the need for many White collar workers. What is going to happen is a mass of micro-firms while a lot of middle class people will be left behind.

I agree with this to a very great extent Ed, though I'm less inclined to believe that AI will be the driver as much as the obsolescence of large hierarchical organizations. As you well know, no large hierarchical command and control system can express anything even remotely approaching the cognitive efficiency of small, flexible, and highly incented teams. Not only that, but in a large enterprise, one or two bad apples can exert spoiling effects that extend across the entire enterprise. Given the effects of incumbency and non-merit based promotion decisions, it's an inevitability that the large organization will suffer from scrub parasitization. What is true of the large enterprise is still more true of nations.

David Brooks column y'day in the NYTimes kinda, sorta, faintly - and in a waters testing way - went there (though he clearly played himself with the gratuitous partisan hackery);

The chief force reshaping manufacturing is technological change (hastened by competition with other companies in Canada, Germany or down the street). Thanks to innovation, manufacturing productivity has doubled over two decades. Employers now require fewer but more highly skilled workers. Technological change affects China just as it does the America. William Overholt of the RAND Corporation has noted that between 1994 and 2004 the Chinese shed 25 million manufacturing jobs, 10 times more than the U.S.

The central process driving this is not globalization. It’s the skills revolution. We’re moving into a more demanding cognitive age. In order to thrive, people are compelled to become better at absorbing, processing and combining information. This is happening in localized and globalized sectors, and it would be happening even if you tore up every free trade deal ever inked.

I'll take it a step further Ed. Not only have we entered the cognitive age (arguably, humans have always competed on a cognitive threshing floor) but the way in which small, flexible teams are organized and operate determines whether or not they can realize and benefit from the emergent ne telepathic levels of coordination and complementarity that are possible for optimized teams.

Finally, this emergent phenomenon of micro-firms will pose nearly as significant a governance challenge as the material, biological, and computational technologies with which such firms will be engaged. It's almost like we've entered the era of Goldilocks optimization, not too big, not too small, but just right. There's a lot of opportunity for folks who've prepared themselves to get on with it.

The chips will go down

For want of a nail the kingdom was lost. In our civilisation, the nails are the computer chips used in every electronic device, every level of infrastructure and throughout communications, transportation, manufacturing, and so on.

Computer chips are so fragile that most fail or degrade within four years. Chip fabrication plants cost more than $10 billion because the water, chemicals and silicon to make them require such purity that particles 500 times smaller than a human hair can cause defects. Microchips require metals that are depleting faster than fossil fuels, have the longest supply chain of any product, and are vulnerable to single points of failure - which brings us back to Africa and 98% of the strategic minerals on which we depend.....,

Global Systems Administration for Liberal Democracy?

Yesterday's "discussion" about the utility of warsocialist enterprise quickly crystallized into a focus on Africa and engendered a post at Cobb. In typical fashion, a prodigious amount of handwaving signifying nothing remotely approaching discoursive closure ensued. However, in the course of all this kerfluffle - a comment by Cobb's designated subject matter expert stuck out like a sore thumb;

But I don't know how much of this informs Frazer's attention to Zimbabwe. I'm sure Zimbabwe is something of a low priority for the current Administration in terms of dedicated resources, though it's a great subject for talking about the spread of democracy, etc.--from a more realpolitik standpoint, we don't have any major interests at stake in Zimbabwe, unlike in the resource-rich areas of the continent or in areas where there is a strong Islamist presence.

demanding follow-up, both, in the context of Cobb's claims concerning the morally proper global systems administrator for liberal democracy role which he insists (though never persuasively demonstrates) is at the heart of militarism in American foreign policy - and - which he exhorts us all to believe as the primary motivation undergirding warsocialist enterprise, former president Dwight D. Eisenhower's claims to the contrary notwithstanding. Of particular concern to me, and pivotal in a certain regard to the Cobbian thesis, is the gross factual error asserted by Cobb's subject matter expert concerning the lack of American interests at stake in Zimbabwe. Nothing could be further from the truth. The U.S. in general and the military and high technology sectors in particular have crucial interests at stake in Zimbabwe.

Since 1961, the U.S. has relied on foreign sources for 100% of its chromium needs. Major concentrations of chromium are in Africa, with the largest known reserves in the Republic of South Africa and the purest grades are in Zimbabwe. These two countries together account for 98% of the world's reserves. The only other significant sources of chromium are the Soviet Union, Turkey and Albania.

The extent to which other minerals can be substituted for chromium is quite limited. There is no material which can adequately replace chrome in the steel industry and no substitutes exist for its aerospace industry and no substitutes exist for its aerospace applications.8 In a crisis some consumers of chromium could continue to function by reducing their useage of the mineral. However, most critical industries, particularly defense, could not continue to operate without normal supplies.

So Cobb, as long as our strategic interests in the region are being met, we should consider our liberal democratic systems administration mission as having been accomplished? THIS explains so much of our foreign policy vis-a-vis the warsocialist enterprise.

Why the demise of civilisation may be inevitable

This article originally appeared in New Scientist;

Western industrial civilisation has become bigger and more complex than any before it by exploiting new sources of energy, notably coal and oil, but these are limited. There are increasing signs of diminishing returns: the energy required to get each new joule of oil is mounting and although global food production is still increasing, constant innovation is needed to cope with environmental degradation and evolving pests and diseases - the yield boosts per unit of investment in innovation are shrinking. "Since problems are inevitable," Joseph Tainter warns, "this process is in part ineluctable."

Is Tainter right? An analysis of complex systems has led Yaneer Bar-Yam, head of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, to the same conclusion that Tainter reached from studying history. Social organisations become steadily more complex as they are required to deal both with environmental problems and with challenges from neighbouring societies that are also becoming more complex, Bar-Yam says. This eventually leads to a fundamental shift in the way the society is organised.

"To run a hierarchy, managers cannot be less complex than the system they are managing," Bar-Yam says. As complexity increases, societies add ever more layers of management but, ultimately in a hierarchy, one individual has to try and get their head around the whole thing, and this starts to become impossible. At that point, hierarchies give way to networks in which decision-making is distributed. We are at this point.

This shift to decentralised networks has led to a widespread belief that modern society is more resilient than the old hierarchical systems. "I don't foresee a collapse in society because of increased complexity," says futurologist and industry consultant Ray Hammond. "Our strength is in our highly distributed decision making." This, he says, makes modern western societies more resilient than those like the old Soviet Union, in which decision making was centralised.

Increasing connectedness

Things are not that simple, says Thomas Homer-Dixon, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, Canada, and author of the 2006 book The Upside of Down. "Initially, increasing connectedness and diversity helps: if one village has a crop failure, it can get food from another village that didn't."

As connections increase, though, networked systems become increasingly tightly coupled. This means the impacts of failures can propagate: the more closely those two villages come to depend on each other, the more both will suffer if either has a problem. "Complexity leads to higher vulnerability in some ways," says Bar-Yam. "This is not widely understood."

The reason is that as networks become ever tighter, they start to transmit shocks rather than absorb them. "The intricate networks that tightly connect us together - and move people, materials, information, money and energy - amplify and transmit any shock," says Homer-Dixon. "A financial crisis, a terrorist attack or a disease outbreak has almost instant destabilising effects, from one side of the world to the other."

I can't imagine a stronger practical incentive for mutualism. Unfortunately, the corporatist unilateralism dominating our mainstream political belief and discourse doesn't really allow for much in the way of alternative points of view - still less alternative modes of organization and operation.

Rockefellers and ExxonMobil

Big oil companies are used to operating within explicit laws to maximize profits. Many have been actively and aggressively opposed to taking voluntary steps to address public concerns about energy and the environment. There is at present no legislation in the U.S. requiring these companies to alter their course, and with de facto control of the White House, big oil has had a field day unprecedented since the era of the robber barons.

ExxonMobil is the most profitable of the major integrated energy companies. The Irving, Texas, company has been highly notable for its climate change and global warming denial. In addition, while other Big Oil companies have lent credence to the idea that global oil reserves are dwindling, ExxonMobil executives claim the world has ample hydrocarbon reserves, and supplies are constricted due to a lack of access to those reserves.

Comes now some descendants of John D. Rockefeller - the archetypal robber baron himself - with a different perspective from ExxonMobil management. Rockefeller founded Standard Oil, which was later declared a trust and broken up early in the 20th century. ExxonMobil, the world's largest company by market capitalization, was built on some of Standard Oil's assets.

Members of the Rockefeller family (Peter O'Neill and Neeva Rockefeller Goodwin pictured) are pressuring Exxon Mobil to focus more on renewable energy.

The family of John D. Rockefeller, who's Standard Oil Trust ultimately spawned Exxon Mobil, say they have spent years behind the scenes prodding the company to change its approach.

Family representatives say their stake in Exxon represents a significant holding, but the company's top shareholders are mutual funds and other institutional investors.

Exxon Mobil says the company has met with members of the Rockefeller family several times and "respects the rights of all shareholders to make their views known."

"They are fighting the last war and they're not seeing they're facing a new war," said Peter O'Neill, who heads the Rockefeller Family committee dealing with Exxon Mobil and is the great-great-grandson of John D. Rockefeller. The family members, who say they are the oil giant's longest continuous shareholders, say Exxon is too focused on short-term gains from sky-high oil prices. They also argue splitting the roles of chairman and CEO will help the company be more flexible in the future.

Mutual funds and other institutional investors, not individuals, are the company's top shareholders. Which points out a key dilemma confronting even this immensely wealthy and influential family in its effort to provoke change. As I've previously indicated, the most dangerous political and economic influence in contemporary life is the convergent power of corporatism manifested through a warsocialist state. Nowhere is this more clearly evident than in the limitations of Exxon's largest private shareholders to influence the management and operations of the world's largest oil company because the real majority owners (80% ownership) of ExxonMobil stock are mutual funds and institutional investors. So, absent laws and other controls, the management of ExxonMobil is pretty much at liberty to flaut the wishes of the Rockefellers - and - aided and abetted by a big oil mandate still occupying the White House......, see how this works?

Sleepwalking Toward the Oil Precipice

Remember a few week ago, Vice President Dick Cheney paid a visit to the Saudi's? The question du jour was how much longer will Saudi Arabia support the US$?

If the Arab oil kingdoms decide to ditch their dollar pegs to control inflation and diversify their overseas assets to earn higher returns in other currencies or in gold and commodities, the net result could be the loss of the US dollar’s reserve currency status.

Preserving the dwindling value of the petrodollar wasn't the only question on deck, there was also a request that the Saudi's boost supply and finally, there was the issue of Iranian "containment".

Well, a few weeks later, and V.P. Cheney has gotten his answer. Yesterday Dave Cohen presented a detailed and sobering discussion of what we can realistically expect from the Saudi's and from OPEC in general. Bottomline - U.S. expectations when compared and contrasted with the political and material realities on the ground - are increasingly at odds with one another. The money shot from his article;

Unless we take some drastic actions, it will be All OPEC, All the Time after 2010 when you will turn on the radio or switch on the TV to listen to the inevitable stories about whether gasoline will finally hit $5 or $6/gallon. But in 2008, our public discourse on the oil situation is still a joke. We need to stop blathering about the boosting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, opening up ANWR, taking OPEC to court, cutting federal taxes on gasoline, raising taxes on Big Oil, punishing speculators, counting on imaginary cellulosic ethanol, waiting for mass production of plug-in hybrids, and all the other nonsense we are bombarded with every day.

We are sleepwalking toward the oil precipice. OPEC will not meet the fantastic expectations placed upon it by the "experts." I can only hope that Americans grasp this reality soon, because all we're doing right now is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

OPEC (read Saudi Arabia) is not going to bail us out any longer. It's reached the end of what it's willing to do on our behalf. Now it's up to us - and in case you haven't noticed - not a single one of the three candidates for POTUS has even begun to seriously and explicitly engage the energy issues in any substantive or meaningful way - so when I say "us" that means a la Hurricane Katrina "us" to make sure we're personally ready for what's beyond that signpost up ahead.

While you were distracted.....,

by the media spectacle du jour - efforts to initiate a shooting war with Iran continued in earnest.

Justin Raimondo gives political backstory undergirding the likely next phase of escalation.

In a world where "benevolent global hegemony" is the goal of U.S. foreign policy, there is no right to self-defense; that, along with national sovereignty, has been abolished. Defiance is met with an implacable campaign for regime-change in the offending nation. By all indications, Iran is the next victim to be made an example of, sometime in mid-summer, or so the rumor goes.

We know where the presidential candidates stand on this issue. Hillary looks forward to the "obliteration" of Iran and takes up Charles Krauthammer's demand that we extend our nuclear shield over Tel Aviv just as we would do the same for, say, Toledo. Indeed, there are not a few who would argue that we would be fully justified in sacrificing the latter in order to save the former, and not all of them are to be found among Rev. Hagee's deluded flock. In any case, we know what the McCain-Hagee position is without even having to ask.

We also know where Obama stands on all or most of this: he advocates a policy of engagement with the Iranians, just as he has endorsed talking with South American caudillo Hugo Chavez, and for the same very sound reasons: because it's talk or fight. He clearly realizes waging perpetual war is hardly in our interests, even if we had the financial and military capacity to carry out such a crazed policy. Yet, if he's speaking out about this, at this crucial moment – when the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is practically declaring war on the Iranians – then I just can't hear him: he must not be speaking very loudly, or perhaps this gets lost amid all the soaring rhetoric about Change and Hope and A Better Tomorrow.

Nah Justin, it's a lot more prosaic than that. While the domestic economy crumbles and the foreign resource war grows, Baraka is caught up in a good old fashioned American coonshow pitting bad negros against responsible negros in a futile, staged struggle to placate implacable anti-negro sentiment. Good old-fashioned American comedy gold and a tried and true mechanism of domestic governance. ABC and Fox News, talk radio, and all the other proponents of Obamamandian anti-Americanism have succeeded beyond their wildest imaginings, or maybe not...., maybe in fact the calculus of distracting and managing the enfeebled memory, attention, and emotions of the herd has become so exacting, that there's really no guesswork involved any longer?

Albert Hofmann - RIP

From Erowid;
Albert Hofmann
Jan 11, 1906 - Apr 29, 2008
Summary - Albert Hofmann was born in Baden, Switzerland in 1906. He graduated from the University of Zürich with a degree in chemistry in 1929 and went to work for Sandoz Pharmaceutical in Basel, Switzerland. With the laboratory goal of working towards isolation of the active principles of known medicinal plants, Hofmann worked with Mediterranean squill (Scilla maritima) for several years, before moving on to the study of Claviceps purpurea (ergot) and ergot alkaloids.

Over the next few years, he worked his way through the lysergic acid derivatives, eventually synthesizing LSD-25 for the first time in 1938. After minimal testing, LSD-25 was set aside as he continued with other derivatives. Four years later, on April 16, 1943, he re-synthesized LSD-25 because he felt he might have missed something the first time around. That day, he became the first human to experience the effects of LSD after accidentally ingesting a minute amount. Three days later, on April 19, 1943, he decided to verify his results by intentionally ingesting 250 ug of LSD. This day has become known as "Bicycle Day" as Hofmann experienced an incredible bicycle ride on his way home from the lab.

In addition to his discovery of LSD, he was also the first to synthesize psilocybin (the active constituent of 'magic mushrooms') in 1958. Albert Hofmann, known as the 'father of LSD', continued to work at Sandoz until 1971 when he retired as Director of Research for the Department of Natural Products. He continued to write, lecture, and play a leading role as an elder in the psychedelic community until his quick and relatively painless death from a heart attack at the age of 102.

Peak oil at Bush press conference

U.S. President George W. Bush addressed peak oil in a roundabout way at a press conference yesterday that was largely devoted to gas prices and the economy. Several quotes clearly indicate that he understands the current state of world oil.

The answers? Explore more, drill more, buy new cars that can use electricity, grow more biofuels, add more refineries, and hope for cellulosic ethanol.

Meanwhile, a long-time Bush supporter groans but resolutely engages in wishful thinking and continued reality evasion.

Mutualism

Modern day capitalism is manifestly not a free market, but a system created and sustained by massive central government interventions in the economy. As such, not only would it not thrive in the absence of government intervention, it would collapse without it. In the 20th century, the symbiotic relationship of corporation and government is even more obvious—though it goes strangely unnoticed by many people. Examples include the military industrial complex, the widespread subsidizing of transportation and communication, the for-profit corporate benefits of government pharmaceutical and other research, tax breaks and incentives for favored industries, the myriad direct and indirect subsidies of suburban sprawl, agricultural subsidies, etc. Here's a book in progress that examines the reality of our system of production.

Organization Theory Outline: Expanded Version

In the absence of such overwhelming intervention, what would the economies of industrialized nations look like?

Mission Accomplished?

The seizure of Iraq is widely perceived to be have been a blunder. From the strategic standpoint of the US elites it was no such thing. The oil reserves contained within Iraq are gigantic, and thus its acquisition was a major economic and security leap forward for the United States. In this piece, a compelling case is made for U.S. Global hegemony. Please go read the entire article, it's lengthy but well worthwhile.

According to their logic the US elites have good reason to feel pleased with themselves following the successful takeover of Iraq, even if the general public in the United States is unable at this stage to grasp what a "glorious achievement" it is. Iraq is known to have over 100 billion barrels of oil reserves. In addition to this the country is still relatively unexplored and there are an estimated 200 to 300 billion barrels more waiting to be discovered. Given that this is largely light crude, the most valuable type of oil, it doesn't take much effort of the imagination to figure that US forces have seized control of one of the world's greatest treasures, whose value dwarfs the cost of the invasion. The invasion of Iraq would therefore be a strong contender for an entry in the Guinness World Records as the greatest act of piracy in the history of the world. It makes the exploits of Blackbeard and Captain Jack Sparrow look decidedly tame. With this being election year in the US, various politicians try to curry favor with the voters by talking about "bringing the troops home". So let's be clear about this - the troops are not coming home until the infrastructure has been built to fully exploit Iraq oil resources, and to this end to partition off the local population who might otherwise interfere with production. In fact, a background level of violence is actually desirable at this time, in order to provide the excuse to keep the troops there. We should also not overlook the reality that the US elections are pure spin anyway, a charade. The United States is not a democracy and has not been for a long time. Its political system is a duopoly of power, with the same plutocratic forces controlling both the Democrat and Republican parties, the election being a 4-yearly circus to fool the masses into thinking that they live in a democracy. In one sense democracy is an absurd concept anyway - how can you allow ignorant, uneducated people the same vote as intelligent, discriminating people? The answer is that that you can - and then you program them to do what you want them to anyway via their favorite entertainment and media inputs. If you spend an hour of your time going down to the polling station to vote, you have just wasted an hour of your life, except that it can be amusing to watch the other fools wasting their time lining up - thinking that they are going to make a difference.

Complete control of the Mid-East, which the United States and the major oil companies are now close to having achieved, of course confers massive power over the rest of world, in particular over rising economic powers such as China and India and the immense leverage that this will in time afford can be used to steer these countries in whatever direction is desired. The US is believed to be involved in a strategic race against time to corner the bulk of the world's remaining oil reserves, the control of which can then be used to dissuade countries like China from resorting to the wholesale dumping of dollars or US Treasuries, along the lines of "Try it and we'll cut off your oil supply", which one would expect to be couched in more diplomatic language. Because of its gargantuan levels of debt the US is acutely vulnerable now, but with time it plans to tip the scales back in its favor partly by sales of its recently acquired plunder. Anyone who has watched those David Attenborough nature programs about seal colonies on beaches will know that the US is like the "beach master", the huge bull elephant seal, taking possession of all of the females on the beach and jealously guarding them, while China and Russia are the other strong contenders, who don't quite have the strength or size to try to assert dominance and as a result can only make gains when the beach master suffers some drastic reversal of fortune. The irony is that China now has the power to stop the US in its tracks, by dumping its vast dollar and Treasury holdings, which would send the US economy straight over a cliff, but it is unlikely it will do this because it can't stomach the consequences to itself or its people of doing so.

It's a dazzling assessment of the geostrategic current state. Fundamentally, it's about the consolidation of power rather than an increase in the wealth of the nation, much less the world. Furthermore, it is very consistent with the logic and history of TEP intrigues. You be the judge...,

Rev. Jeremiah Wright's Big Payback

This message is posted as a public service to any still pretending to be confused about the specific meaning of Rev. Jeremiah Wright's big payback to ABC, Fox News, and Talk Radio today - and over the weekend. One only hopes Baraka will take the message and get up off his knees and stop trying to placate the most atavistic and uncompromising elements in American society.

Uh! With your bad self!

Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud!
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud!

Some people say we've got a lot of malice
Some say it’s a lot of nerve
But I say we won't quit moving until we get what we deserve
We have been bucked and we have been scorned
We have been treated bad, talked about as just bones
But just as it takes two eyes to make a pair, ha
Brother we can’t quit until we get our share

Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud!
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud!
One more time!
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud!

I worked on jobs with my feet and my hand
But all the work I did was for the other man
Now we demand a chance to do things for ourselves
We're tired of beatin' our head against the wall
And workin' for someone else

Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud

We're people, we're just like the birds and the bees
We'd rather die on our feet
Than be livin' on our knees

Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud
Say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud

Don't Hate the Player...,

Last week, I posted an interview of Michael Klare discussing the rise of an energy driven New World Order. In his book, Rising Powers Shrinking Planet, Klare outlines the situation thus;

Surveying the energy-driven dynamic that is reconfiguring the international landscape, Michael Klare, the preeminent expert on resource geopolitics, forecasts a future of surprising new alliances and explosive danger. World leaders are now facing the stark recognition that all materials vital for the functioning of modern industrial societies (not just oil and natural gas but uranium, coal, copper, and others) are finite and being depleted at an ever-accelerating rate. As a result, governments rather than corporations are increasingly spearheading the pursuit of resources. In a radically altered world— where Russia is transformed from battered Cold War loser to arrogant broker of Eurasian energy, and the United States is forced to compete with the emerging “Chindia” juggernaut—the only route to survival on a shrinking planet, Klare shows, lies through international cooperation.

Former Russian president Vladimir Putin can very well be credited as one of the leading architect's of this New World Order - and he has also has written very clearly about the nature of the situation going back as far as his purloined 1997 PhD thesis;

Generally speaking, all of us should recognize and admit that “energy egotism” in a modern and highly interdependent world is a road to nowhere. Therefore, Russia’s attitude toward energy security remains clear and unchanged. It is our strong belief that energy redistribution guided wholly by the priorities of a small group of the most-developed countries does not serve the goals and purposes of global development. We will strive to create an energy security system sensitive to the interests of the whole international community. Basically, all it takes is for mankind to create a balanced potential in order to provide every state with sustainable energy supply, and international cooperation opens all avenues for that. Russia is ready to contribute actively to further progress in this direction.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a beloved, strong man leader of a reinvigorated Russia. Understanding this man, his background, credentials, and priorities - can help to understand a very great deal about why the U.S. has a Russia scholar for secretary of state, and much more importantly, about the possible shape of things to come as the pace and intensity of flux within the elite echelons of the Trans-European Project continue to unfold.

Warsocialist Proliferation

With much less fanfare than the early days of the Cold War, the world is entering a new arms race, and with it, a dangerous new web of military relationships. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks international armed forces spending, between 1997 and 2006 global military expenditures jumped by nearly 40 percent. Driven mainly by anxiety over oil and natural resources, countries are building their arsenals of conventional weapons at a rate not seen in decades, beefing up their armies and navies, and forging potential new alliances that could divide up the world in unpredictable ways.

Much of this new arms spending is concentrated among the world's biggest consumers of resources, which are trying to protect their access to energy, and the biggest producers of resources, which are taking advantage of their new wealth to build up their defenses at a rate that would have been unthinkable for a developing country until recently.

This power shift comes with enormous implications for the United States and its Western allies. With more military power in the hands of authoritarian and sometimes unstable states, the arms race creates a growing possibility for real state-to-state conflict - a prospect that would dwarf even a major terror attack in its power to disrupt the world's stability. It also will force the West to change, to make its own plans to shore up resources, and to get used to a world arsenal it can no longer dominate.

Rearming the world - Why nations are suddenly locked in an arms race unseen since the early days of the Cold War.

The Unbearable Cost of Warsocialism

There are three broad aspects to the U.S. debt crisis. First, in the current fiscal year (2008) we are spending insane amounts of money on "defense" projects that bear no relation to the national security of the U.S. We are also keeping the income tax burdens on the richest segment of the population at strikingly low levels.

Second, we continue to believe that we can compensate for the accelerating erosion of our base and our loss of jobs to foreign countries through massive military expenditures -- "military Keynesianism" (which I discuss in detail in my book Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic). By that, I mean the mistaken belief that public policies focused on frequent wars, huge expenditures on weapons and munitions, and large standing armies can indefinitely sustain a wealthy capitalist economy. The opposite is actually true.

Third, in our devotion to militarism (despite our limited resources), we are failing to invest in our social infrastructure and other requirements for the long-term health of the U.S. These are what economists call opportunity costs, things not done because we spent our money on something else. Our public education system has deteriorated alarmingly. We have failed to provide health care to all our citizens and neglected our responsibilities as the world's number one polluter. Most important, we have lost our competitiveness as a manufacturer for civilian needs, an infinitely more efficient use of scarce resources than arms manufacturing.

Chalmers Johnson in Le Monde.

Blessed Pascha

Today is Easter Sunday in the Orthodox Church. NPR did a story this morning on one of the most interesting and ethically futurist of my co-religionists whose way of life centers on reuse and recycling and participation in the global interpersonal communion.

The Zabbaleen (Egyptian Arabic: زبالين "garbage people") are an Egyptian community of mainly Coptic Christians who are employed in the city of Cairo to collect and dispose of much of the city's waste. The Zabbaleen generally perform this service very cheaply or for free, making a living by sorting the waste materials for reuse or recycling. Waste food is fed to livestock (most often pigs) or poultry. Other materials, such as steel, glass and plastic bottles, are sorted by hand and sold as raw materials. Other items are repaired or reused. Some material is burnt as fuel. Traditionally, donkey driven carts are used by males to collect waste from homes, which is sorted by female members of the family in zabbaleen homes. It is claimed that zabbaleen reuse or recycle 80-90% of the waste they collect (a figure that the most modern waste management systems in the world aspire to), however this must be put into context of the fact that the zabbaleen do not collect all the waste, and concentrate on wealthier areas.

Until the 1980s, there was no formal system of waste collection in Cairo. All collection was performed by zabbaleen. This informal garbage collection system is still a fundamental part of the city's solid waste management. The zabbaleen collect between a third and a half of the 6,500 tonnes of Municipal solid waste that Cairo produces every day, with half being collected by the city and private companies and the remaining 1,500 tonnes left uncollected, generally in the poorest areas. Any uncollected garbage that is burnt will severely exacerbate the air pollution problem in Cairo.

Department of PreCrime?

Last month we found out that Scotland Yard is at the bleeding edge where science meets fiction - in wanting to establish it's own social darwinian version of Pre-Crime law enforcement capability.

Primary school children should be eligible for the DNA database if they exhibit behaviour indicating they may become criminals in later life, according to Britain's most senior police forensics expert.

Gary Pugh, director of forensic sciences at Scotland Yard and the new DNA spokesman for the Association of Chief Police Officers (Acpo), said a debate was needed on how far Britain should go in identifying potential offenders, given that some experts believe it is possible to identify future offending traits in children as young as five.

'If we have a primary means of identifying people before they offend, then in the long-term the benefits of targeting younger people are extremely large,' said Pugh. 'You could argue the younger the better. Criminologists say some people will grow out of crime; others won't. We have to find who are possibly going to be the biggest threat to society.'

Comes now my man Big Don with real news you can use on exactly how the 8th largest nation (California) might actually go about implementing yet another intriguing part of this paradigm;

California will adopt the most aggressive approach in the nation to a controversial crime-fighting technique that uses DNA to try to identify elusive criminals through their relatives, state Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown announced Friday.

Employing what is known as familial or "partial match" searching, the policy is aimed at identifying a suspect through DNA collected at a crime scene by looking for potential relatives in the state's genetic database of about a million felons. Once a relative is identified, police can use that person as a lead to trace the suspect.

Knowing (or believing as some of us do) that not only intelligence, but entire ranges of behavioral traits and proclivities can be ascertained from the genome, can't you already begin to see shape of things to come as genetic precogs scry the DNA runes to determine if you or your relatives have "tendencies", and, whether you or your relatives comprise "valid" investigative leads? Protect and serve indeed......,

How Hard? Real Hard!!!

Submariner looked out past that signpost up ahead and asked and answered one of the fundamental kwestins;

The United States currently faces the same challenge that Germany had in the Thirties. How does a state create an economy to support a military superpower yet meet fundamental human needs beyond physical security? The answer, of course, is that it can't and the ensuing scarcity management requires a Darwinian approach.

That red pill is helluva drug ain't it? But in the end, it's better to know and be in some position to deal - than to be taken by surprise. Once you've solved the equation for "what's going to happen" - you're free to examine the corollaries of "how it's going to happen" and you don't even need to sweat the "when" - because you know it's already work in progress.


This is what I like about Big Don. He knows what's coming and even though he's exposed a false ideas vulnerability - which leaves him vulnerable to certain nefarious forms of exploitation - I believe that from a practical perspective, the man is otherwise ready for the clampdown and is thus a natural ally in this dot connecting game we like to play. At the end of the day, the best we can do is to exchange information and ideas that help us each to discern the shape of what's happening and how best to respond for the wellbeing of our friends and families out here on what will be a systematic implementation of a very hard right Darwinian threshing floor.

Like Glasses for Not Sees....,

This interview underscored the extent to which ABC, Fox News, and conservative talk radio have functioned as agents of racial arson. From the outset, it was clear that this was a manufactured controversy, and one which exceeded the pale of hardball politics. The mainstream and corporate media enterprises responsible for the nakedly deceitful, exploitative, and propagandistic abuses of viral audio and video - now exposed by this interview - should have some explaining to do. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting....,

It is now an established fact that Baraka's candidacy is yielding a bounty of unintended consequences in its unprecedented capacity as a collective rorschachian emetic